The satellite image to the left from this morning shows the aftermath of this weekend's powerful winter storm that moved across southern Manitoba. The white areas reveal snow on the ground over much of southern Manitoba and southeast Saskatchewan. Heaviest snowfalls from this storm were observed over eastern SK into west central Manitoba where amounts of 30 to 50 cm were reported Saturday April 30th - Sunday May 1st, along with large drifts caused by 80-100 km/h wind gusts. (Darker forested areas of Riding, Duck and Turtle Mountains are clearly evident)Note the secondary axis of heavier snow to the south of Lake Winnipeg that brought a swath of 5-10 cm of snow from northeast of Winnipeg down to the US border near Emerson during Sunday May 1st. Note also how this snow band reveals the extent of the Red River flooding to the south of Morris into northern ND, which shows up as a narrow band of dark patches amongst the snow covered terrain.
Sunny skies and temperatures warming up to 10 degrees today will melt most of the snow today, although snowfall in heaviest hit areas will take another day or two to disappear. Watch satellite loops to see how quickly the snow melts today..
Snow band shows up nicely with this modis image!
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That was amazing how quickly that snow melted! Even areas that got 10-15 cm of snow!
ReplyDeleteRob, was there ever a "weather event summary" issued for this past storm???
ReplyDeleteThanks for the link Adam.. awesome shot! Noticeable snow minima north of Brandon, and swollen Red River shows up nicely.
ReplyDeletedaniel.. I don't think there was a storm summary issued.. at least, none that I saw.
Models have been showing a big storm system affecting us by Tuesday of next week with a severe weather event to our south in the Plains and the Midwest. Looks like we'd have some thunderstorm potential if things pan out. Something to keep an eye on.
ReplyDeletePlease tell me we won't be getting snow on the back side of the storm next week....
ReplyDeleteI'm itching for my first thunderstorm of the season!!!
ReplyDeleteLooks like some showers and thundershowers south of the border!!
Wonder if they will make it this far???
Environment Canada is calling for a warmer than normal summer!!!
ReplyDeleteBreak out the sunscreen, and beach ball!!
Warmer than normal but also wetter for the praries. Put away that sunscreen and grab a sandbag
ReplyDeleteWarmer than normal plus above normal precip would probably mean an active thunderstorm season (I HOPE)
ReplyDeleteTake that forecast of a warmer than normal summer with a big grain of salt.. It's based purely on a climate model that is initialized by weather patterns of the past 10 days, then extrapolated over the next few months to come up with a crude temperature map compared to "average" weather. There is no human intervention by experts in long range forecasting who can augment the model output based on known weather anomalies, and as a result, the overall skill of these forecasts is very low. I'm surprised that they released this forecast already.. normally the official 3 month summer outlook isn't released until June 1st. Don't be surprised if the summer outlook changes by then, especially if May turns out cooler than normal.
ReplyDeleteIt should be noted that seasonal forecasts from NOAA's climate division, which does incorporate human expertise, hints at a cooler than normal summer for the Prairies, at least at the beginning, trending towards more normal or warmer weather at the end. This is very similar to what happened in 2009, which this year seems to be mirroring.
With all the surface moisture around this year, it makes sense that we would see a wetter than normal summer since surface moisture is a main driver of convection in the Prairies (along with evapotranspiration from crops and plants). So a wetter and cooler summer is a more likely scenario this year.. but I'm hoping that Mother Nature surprises us with a nice hot dry summer.
All these cold and wet summers seem to lead to more cold and wet summers. Looking foreward to breaking the cycle.
ReplyDeleteFurther to EC's "warmer than normal" summer outlook, if you look at the more detailed breakdown for each major city as to the odds of a wamer, near or below normal summer, the numbers for Winnipeg show a 40-49% probability of warmer than normal, 30-39% of near normal, and 20-29% below normal (click on my name for list of numbers). This generously translates to "above" normal on the crude temperature map, but it's hardly a confident forecast.. certainly not one that I would advertise as predicting "a hot dry summer" On top of that, seasonal forecast skill over southern MB is less than 45%
ReplyDeleteA misleading map + an uninformed media = bad information all around.
Is it too much to ask for a good thunderstorm year? We've been pretty parched in that regard since 2007.
ReplyDeleteRob, I respectfully disagree about 2009 being a good analogy. I believe 2008 is a much better analogue year, at least in terms of temperature. Here's why.
ReplyDelete2008: fading La Nina, coolish dry spring, coolish June, normal July, hot August, normal fall. La Nina, not blocking patterns, was the main influence.
2009: long streak of VERY cold weather all spring and summer, followed by a hot September and cold October. A very topsy turvy pattern influenced by upper atmosphere blocking.
The anomalies seen in 2009 were extreme. From what you suggest, the cool anomaly expected this summer is subtle, which means 2008 is the right analogue year. The big difference is that 2011 will be wetter than 2008. 2009 was also pretty dry until summer.
Thanks for your comments Andrew. You're right about 2009 being more extreme than this year and more likely due to a blocking pattern (9 consecutive months below normal) I'll be quite happy if we don't have a repeat of the summer of 2009!
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