Sunday, May 15, 2011
Great stretch of weather this week..
It looks like Mother Nature is making amends this week after delivering a prolonged stretch of cloudy, cool and damp weather last week. A large area of high pressure over southern MB has brought a gloriously sunny weekend to the province with temperatures ranging from 19C in the south to 25C in the north. This area of high pressure will move slowly eastward over the next few days maintaining sunny skies and temperatures in the low 20s over southern MB. The good news is that high pressure in the upper atmosphere over Manitoba will block weather systems from affecting southern MB through the entire week maintaining dry and warm weather through Friday.. welcome news for the ongoing flood-fighting efforts. There are indications that the weather will turn more unsettled over the May 24 holiday weekend with some shower activity moving in .. especially for the latter half.. but this is still a ways ahead to be more specific. Until then.. get out and enjoy the much overdue stretch of sunny warm weather!
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Should be an ideal period for farmers this week. Warm weather plus a moderate to strong south wind each day should help dry things out nicely.
ReplyDeleteStill looking at a wet Long Weekend, though. Could be a low pressure system that sticks with us from Friday right through Monday. Models are showing around 1,000 J/KG of CAPE on late Saturday and Sunday so thunderstorms would be possible.
Rob, I noticed that our dewpoints are quite low!!!
ReplyDeleteIs this south wind going to advect in a moist airmass???
Lets hope our friends in northern manitoba get some moisture. I know we don't need it in the south but up north remains dry (lake levels around lynn lake are 4 feet below summer values)and the potential for forest fires is high there.
ReplyDeletedaniel..
ReplyDeleteThis dry airmass covers much of western and central North America.. we have single digit dewpoints all the way down to the Gulf of Mexico. It will take a few days before we see higher dewpoints moving over us from the south.. likely by the weekend.
NWS GFK has issued a red flag warning for the Devil's Lake basin today.. for gusty SE winds and low humidity. Similar conditions over SW MB today. Wouldn't that be an oddity to see.. grassfires developing in a flood zone!
ReplyDeleteOfficially the warmest day of the year so far at my site, 24.2C as of the latest reading, and still a hour or so more warming to go!
ReplyDeleteWhat are your thoughts Rob
ReplyDeleteThis weekends forecasts are not encouraging. Comforting to know the low success recently of 3 to 5 day forward Rainfall predictions.
Near 18mm for Friday Saturday Sunday for Brandon, Portage, and Winnipeg.
Jim.. Current long range models and ensembles are indicating that the main upper low over the southwest US will drift northward over the Dakotas and bring an increasing threat of showers and possible thunderstorms over southern MB Saturday into Sunday. The bit of good news is that the consensus so far is that the main energy will drift to our south, with the bulk of pcpn falling over the Dakotas. (although ECMWF is a little further north than the rest) Whether this works out or not remains to be seen, however early indications are that the TransCanada corridor including Winnipeg and Brandon may be on the northern edge of the heaviest rainfall this weekend, although we'll still see some rainfall. We'll have to see if this trend holds as we get closer to the weekend..
ReplyDeleteModels are showing quite a bit of precip for much of southern Manitoba. Some spots could see an inch of rain, even more by Monday.
ReplyDeleteAny thoughts on the potential for thunderstorms, Rob?