Monday, June 21, 2010

Welcome to Summer 2010!.. pass the umbrella and bug spray!

It’s the first official day of summer today.. but the weather this week doesn’t appear to be changing much from the unsettled pattern of the past few weeks. An active jet stream across the northern US is carrying occasional waves of energy from the west that are spawning periodic showers and thunderstorms across southern MB.. including today and Tuesday. For today, an area of showers and thunderstorms over northern North Dakota has drifted north into the Red River valley, bringing another round of rainfall to southern MB.. something we don’t need. Rainfall amounts of 15-25 mm have been recorded along the US border this morning with heavier amounts over northern ND. These showers have been weakening this morning, but local amounts of 5-15 mm are possible across the RRV and southeast MB today. Another impulse is forecast to move across southern MB Tuesday triggering more showers and thunderstorms.. with locally heavy rain likely again. This is unwelcome news for the southern Prairies which is struggling with saturated soil conditions and high water levels thanks to an exceptionally wet May and June so far that have seen some very heavy rainstorms at times.

So what kind of summer should we expect this year? According to NOAA’s Climatic Prediction Center, odds favour a cooler and wetter than normal summer this year over the Northern Plains (and southern Prairies). NWS Grand Forks’ summer outlook for the Red River valley calls for a warmer and drier finish to the summer after a cool and wet start. With all the ground moisture out there, odds would favour a wetter summer since soil moisture is such a critical factor in the development of convective precipitation over the Prairies (drought begets drought, likewise rain begets rain). Whatever the case, after last year’s cool wet summer, residents of southern MB are hoping this summer turns around soon from it’s less than ideal start.

23 comments:

  1. Your planned trip to the continent is for when Rob? lol

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  2. Bravo to GFS for accurately depicting strength of this wave... I didn't buy it and got burned lol. Just enough extension of LLJ (and warm advection) from central plains up to the system to generate MCS. Interesting to note again how the heavy radar returns pass Winnipeg to the SE (fortunate for us).

    NAM performing poorly.. it is not picking tomorrow's wave very well either.

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  3. Summer officially began on June 1, not today.

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  4. This comment has been removed by the author.

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  5. Manitoba Road and Travel Info Hwy# 352 near Neepawa on Highway 16 and ND Travel Info Roadmap Hwy 20 near Hwy 2 Devils Lake are closed due to flooding and identy the exact location of the detour.

    This update ability would be an excellent addition to TWN Road Conditions maps.

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  6. By official, I mean the astronomical start of summer which most people regard as the "official" start of summer.. but yes, for climate purposes, we consider the summer as beginning June 1st and ending Aug 31st.

    As for any trips abroad for me this summer.. unfortunately, no, not this year. I'll be staying put in Winnipeg this summer. Hopefully the good weather streak will follow me again, or else I'll be sharing the weather misery with everyone else here. I'm still hopeful though for some nice summer weather this year!

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  7. Hey Rob, looks like your famous question mark cloud form on IR has come back. Not perfect, but it is close.

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  8. Once again, models are all over the place with regard to precipitation for Tuesday over southern MB and the RRV. Regional GEM is the wettest of the bunch showing an MCC moving across southern MB dumping 20-30 mm of rain along the TransCanada corridor. Other models are much less aggressive with maximum amounts of only 10-15 mm from the GLB, and less than 10 mm from the NAM and GFS. The impulse responsible for Tuesday's precipitation is currently bringing some active weather across southern AB and southwest SK with some locally severe thunderstorms producing heavy rain and large hail. So although the regional GEM has been overaggressive with pcpn amounts this season, it may be onto the right idea for Tuesday. We shall see..

    Unfortunately though, it does look like the potential for another round of locally heavy downpours over southern MB Tuesday.. as if we needed any more.

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  9. IMO Rob, you are neither a sailor nor is your abode adjacent to a waterway. Else opting for "bucket" instead of "bug spray" in your title to this post would have been a lock.
    Glub'Glub

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  10. Yeah lots of unceratainty regarding track of MCS tomorrow. Intensity will be determined by the wave's ability to interact with LLJ and deep moisture from central plains (today's disturbance had no difficulty). Other things to watch for would be developing convection on nose of main LLJ and warm front on northern fringe of subtropical ridge.. such convection could cut off moisture supply to northern system. The absence of synoptic forcing and strong dynamics makes forecasting heavy precip more an art then with previous systems.

    By Wednesday, upper flow turns NW. Ridge of high pressure moves thru on Thursday representing our best chance at some clearing. Return flow on back side of ridge and ahead of new distrubance moving up from SW will set the stage for better organized warm frontal precip on Friday.

    At least the world cup is on and you don't feel guilty staying inside to watch all the matches (if you can) haha.

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  11. Wow, look at that storm in south west Saskatchewan!!!! Lots of purple in it on the radar! Tornado warning on it too!

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  12. the June 17th tornado outbreak in the states: 3 confirmed EF4 tornadoes, two in MN and one in ND. here is a link:

    http://www.crh.noaa.gov/news/display_cmsstory.php?wfo=fgf&storyid=53938&source=0

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  13. That storm in eastern Saskatchewan on the southern edge of the line of storms is looking very intense!

    I wonder if that cell would make it into Manitoba????

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  14. Wow, now look at the storm in SE Sask, 60 dBZ + on that one according to the MB/SK radar and SK radar. I wonder if it could produce another tornado like the one around Limerick SK and if all the ingredients are still there (-daytime heating).

    http://www.theweathernetwork.com/news/storm_watch_stories3&stormfile=SaskatchewanTornado&warningtype=sw?ref=stormwatch_home

    (site shows tornado)

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  15. Disturbance over Saskatchewan appears to be tapping LLJ with convection organizing into large line of thunderstorms from Yorkton SK all the way down to Rapid City SD. The more northern QPF bullseye may indeed verify and there is the potential for heavy rain to affect the Winnipeg area by dawn.

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  16. btw.. take a look at this massive tornado in N Dakota from Friday's outbreak. Imagine this going thru Winnipeg... we'd be toast.

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  17. Sorry.. link on my name in previous post

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  18. According to the Environment Canada discussion this morning things could get very active this afternoon!!!

    Very large hail and severe wind gusts..... Looks like we need to keep an eye on the sky!!!

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  19. Rob!

    What is your take on the chance of tornadoes in Southern Manitoba today????

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  20. Today could be rather interesting if we clear out. The edge of the cloud deck extends from Brandon to Devil's Lake, so clearing is more possible today than previous occasions.

    EC rounds up the potential quite well in their discussion today. Essentially a repeat of yesterday in SK, except worse. However, they didn't have clearing problems in SK, so we still have that hurdle to clear.

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  21. Yes, potential is certainly there for severe thunderstorms today over southern MB.. developing over SW MB this afternoon pushing into RRV by late afternoon and into SE MB this evening. As mentioned, development will hinge on how much sun can break through the clouds today to get temps up into the mid 20s.. which will yield SBCAPES of 2000-2500 j/kg. Latest satpix indicate plenty of breaks developing west of Winnipeg so that limiting factor is becoming less of an issue. 40-50 kt SW jet streak at 500 mb moving into southern MB today ahead of a well developed upper low over Regina area which will move into SW Mb this afternoon. Large hail, heavy downpours, and strong wind gusts will be the main threat, but isolated tornadoes are possible given the shear and low convective bases, and the history from yesterday's activity in southern SK. Should be an interesting afternoon and evening ahead..

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  22. Today is the three year anniversary of the Elie Tornado

    Click name for a reminder!


    Here's to hoping for a year like 2007...except for the F5 destruction!

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  23. Skies have now cleared here in Winnipeg!!!

    Let the FIREWORKS begin!!!

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