Wednesday, October 28, 2009

Intensifying storm system to bring strong winds, rain and snow to southern MB Friday

A storm system over the southern US plains will move north and intensify Thursday into Friday, bringing a large swath of precipitation over southern MB on Friday. Rain from this system will spread over southern MB Thursday afternoon into Thursday night, and continue into Friday over the RRV and SE Manitoba. Heavy rainfall is possible with amounts of 20 - 40 mm in some areas Thursday night into Friday. Further west, precipitation will likely change to snow over the western RRV into SW Manitoba Thursday night into Friday, with significant accumulations possible, especially through the Pilot Mound area down into western and central ND. Increasing northerly winds of 50 to 70 km/h Friday will compound the situation, especially in areas with snow. There is still considerable uncertainty in the evolution of this upcoming storm system, especially with respect to where the rain/snow line will end up. This will have considerable impact on eventual rainfall and snowfall amounts. Stay tuned with updates on this developing situation.

143 comments:

  1. National weather service out of Grand Forks in there afternoon discussion is concerned about a band of freezing rain setting up over the area on Thursday night/Friday!


    After that they are pretty convinced that the rain/freezing rain will change to snow but this is a very tough forecast to say the least!

    ReplyDelete
  2. Canadian GEM model has a track over western Minnesota/Lake of the Woods which is a little further west than NAM and GFS solutions. This pushes rain/snow line further west than American guidance which suggests a change to snow Friday for the RRV. Difference between rain and snow will be a few miles.. which is why exact track of this storm system is of critical importance.

    ReplyDelete
  3. I've noticed that the TV Forecasts CBC and CTV are not mentioning any possibility of snow. Is this the "Don't mention the sky has a chance of falling" school of information until we're 6 hours out. Plum Coolee is in their broadcast range as is Morris etc.

    ReplyDelete
  4. Not really sure what to make of the 18Z run. The 18Z info basically wipes out most of the precip from southern Manitoba. Winnipeg is now only expected to see 2mm of TOTAL precip from the entire system, with Steinbach going from 34mm at 12Z to 9mm now.

    If these runs are indeed correct, the actual impacts of this system will be minimal. However, given the NWS's expectation for heavy snowfall in certain areas, these model runs don't add up.

    Just when we didn't need it, this system gives us another curve-ball.

    ReplyDelete
  5. Rob

    Excellent Link Here >>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>

    Your Link adjacent and just right of this post Winter Weather Advisory indicates the system north and easterly movement will slow down even more than anticipated. It also provides guidance for MORE snow than originally forecast for the plains especially the eastern portion

    ReplyDelete
  6. Take a look at that very heavy area of rain that has formed in southern North Dakota

    Which will be the first in MANY areas of rain which will hopefully change to snow!

    On the weather network they show that Winnipeg and areas WEST will be to the cold side of the storm!

    There will be a warm front that will be to Winnipeg's east so the north winds will usher in enough cold air that will change it all to snow!

    By the way has anyone see how cold the air is up north in Nunavut???
    Unreal is the cold.
    Taloyoak high for Saturday is -30 C
    Whoa! there normal high is -13 C!!!

    ReplyDelete
  7. Are all Colorado Low major storms always that difficult to forecast??

    It seems a new forecast comes out every 6 hours.

    ReplyDelete
  8. Is this RRV deja vu .

    Didn't we get an inch of rain last Nov, just before freezeup?

    Earlier today Grand Forks Herald reported we are expecting 1 to 2 inches of pcpn and some flooding expected in the Tributaries next week. Just as we are enjoying the first near Datum (low) RR view in 24 months.

    See todays NWS ND Graphic at my name or

    http://www.crh.noaa.gov/news/display_cmsstory.php?wfo=fgf&storyid=35720&source=0

    ReplyDelete
  9. Yes we did.. Nov 6th, Winnipeg got around 20-30 mm of rain and ice pellets that turned into 7 cm of snow that night.. the first snow of the 2008-09 season that stayed the rest of the winter!

    ReplyDelete
  10. Winter Storm Watch still in effect for parts of Northern Dakota!

    They believe that someone could still get 6 inches of snow!

    Meanwhile Environment Canada is calling for a few flakes of snow!

    hmmm......

    ReplyDelete
  11. Glancing blow? Rain or snow? Which model's right? We'd like to know!

    NAM continues to show that this storm system will give RRV and southeastern MB a glancing blow tonight into Friday with a weaker low and more easterly track. In fact, latest NAM shows no precip at all over southeast MB during Friday with the heaviest QPF staying over NW Ontario.

    GEM on the other hand still indicates a deeper low on a more westerly track, spreading significant rain and/or wet snow over southeast MB and southern RRV overnight into Friday.

    Time will tell who's right. I'm not terribly impressed by the cold air injection feeding into this system to deepen it as rapidly as the GEM suggests.. but the NAM appears to be too progressive with the low. A compromise solution with a weaker low than the GEM suggests but further west than the NAM shows may be a good solution, with 10-20 mm of rain over southeast MB changing to wet snow Friday with a few cm possible. Winnipeg looks to be on the western edge of the main pcpn shield, with 5-10 mm of rain tonight changing to wet snow by morning.. perhaps giving a slushy accumulation Friday morning before ending.

    ReplyDelete
  12. Well just looking at the radar I know we can completely dismiss some models that show the storm missing us

    The steady rain is already here and all the moisture streaming north is impressive!

    ReplyDelete
  13. If we ever doubted the degree of difficulty in forecasting these events, this CeeLo will serve to educate us.

    How many predictable and unpredictable variables are included in the models?

    ReplyDelete
  14. C-LO
    A major unpredictable weather event which dances across North America leaving many crushed in her white wake, devastating results to others, and rarely but sometime pays a visit to dance to rave reviews in Winnipeg

    ReplyDelete
  15. Is anyone getting some thick fog out there today??

    No fog here in St.James~!

    Airport down to 0.8 km in fog!!!!!

    ReplyDelete
  16. Dan

    Red River at Bishop Grandin <3K south diminished visibility.

    ReplyDelete
  17. Another aspect for determining rain vs snow with this event will be elevation. Higher elevations to the west of the RRV will change over to snow more quickly tonight, with some accumulations possible over the Pilot Mound area. Bulk of the pcpn is expected over southeastern MB however so heavy snow accumulations not expected, maybe 5 cm or so, with higher amounts if changeover is sooner.

    ReplyDelete
  18. Well I just got off work and on my way home the rain just started to mix with a bit of snow!

    But if you blink you might have missed it!

    Well the radar is looking dry for now so it looks like it was an all rain event for the most part!

    ReplyDelete
  19. An interactive Snow Depth map has been added to the Current Weather latest surface analysis Grand Forks Links Page at my name or

    http://www.crh.noaa.gov/fgf/?n=currentweather

    The map appears to also extend to Morris MB and thru out the Rouseau, Pembina and Souris basins and shows last nights snow penetration.

    ReplyDelete
  20. Well, looks like the NAM was the best model with this event.. with a further east track and pcpn over NW Ontario today. GEM overdid the intensity and precip amounts over southern MB with this system. Overall, rainfall amounts of 5-15 mm were recorded over the RRV.

    The exception was Winnipeg airport which recorded a suspiciously high 24 mm total yesterday, about twice what everyone else had (I had 11 mm, Forks had 8 mm, another Winnipeg airport gauge had 9 mm) I suspect that Winnipeg airport's rain gauge has been fitted with a Nipher snow shield for the winter, which overcatches rainfall and results in rainfall readings that are double what they should be. (those other gauges do not have Nipher shields) Keep that in mind for any rainfall events at YWG airport for the rest of the fall and winter.

    ReplyDelete
  21. Speaking of interactive snowmaps, check out the neat snowfall map from Denver with the most recent snowstorm in Colorado (click on my name). Snowfall amounts of 3-3.5 FEET in the mountains just west of Denver. This map has all the snowfall reports with interactive location and details on a Google map.. great way to display a storm summary!

    ReplyDelete
  22. FYI got reports of 2-3 inches of wet snow in that band from Wahpeton-Breckenridge to Fergus Falls-Detroit Lakes to Fosston MN area. Local report of 4.5 inches at Fosston called in. This was as of 430 pm Fri. We are issuing flood warnings for the Red at Fargo and Wahpeton with Fargo expected to go to 21 ft. Already fielding a few calls about next spring :)

    ReplyDelete
  23. update made calls and there was a narrow band of 6 to 9 inches from near Detroit Lakes MN to Fosston MN with 3-5 Fergus Falls to east of Moorhead then up to between Bemidji and Roseau. rainfall in the southern basin was 1.25 to 1.50 inches past 36 hrs.

    ReplyDelete
  24. Can't imagine any concerns unless some have been viewing the last 30 day rainfall comparisons at

    NOAA National Weather Service Advanced Hydrological Prediction Service for North Dakota at

    http://water.weather.gov/index.php

    Who would think an extra 4 to 8 inches of October rain just before winter or 300% to 600% of a normal would cause any concern?

    Only 1 out 5 components needed for next spring to become noteworthy..

    ReplyDelete
  25. 6-9 inches of snow!
    That's where all the snow went!

    I had my snowblower all tuned up and ready to go and.....

    Well it is snowing a few flakes as I speak with a squall coming off Lake Manitoba! Maybe an inch of snow in the Elie area!

    ReplyDelete
  26. Rob!

    Any chance of freezing rain tonight into tomorrow morning here with the Alberta Clipper????

    Looking at the webcams this morning some places like Sanford got enough snow to coat the ground!

    ReplyDelete
  27. Rob thats an excellent snow/rain map. Will they be extending the coverage to FGF or BIS . You can scroll there but no data appears

    GF Dan.. can you inform us.?

    ReplyDelete
  28. regarding the plotting of reports on google map...I was wanting just that same thing for the LSR (storm reports) we were sending out. I wanted to do a map of the snowfall reports on google map but to no avail. I talked with our GIS focal point and there is lots of movement at our headquarters to make this national but like to many things in our NWS structure it starts out here and there for a while before everyone joins in. I found the source page and program from which WFO Boulder used to create it and will forward it to our IT office.

    Short answer to your question...in the immediate short term dont look for it from us yet but in the next year sure would hope so.

    ReplyDelete
  29. Rob!

    Do you have the final stats for October???

    Was it way below normal???

    ReplyDelete
  30. Well, that rain/snow event turned into a non-event. Reminds me of the simulations they had around Thanksgiving. I canceled my turkey event because of it. Now I know better.

    ReplyDelete
  31. Winnipeg airport ended up with a monthly mean of 3.3C in October.. a full 2C below normal (and over 14C cooler than September!) The bulk of the cold air was in the first half of the month which was well below normal. The second half was closer to average. Overall though, the month wasn't anywhere near record breaking for cold, tying 1898 as the 26th coldest October on record. FWIW, both NWS and EC are calling for above normal temps for November over the Prairies.

    ReplyDelete
  32. Thanks for the update Dan. I think Google mapping will become a common way of displaying all sorts of weather data on the web in the future. (EC really needs to get on board with this) I see NWS is beta testing radar imagery on a Google map background. In the meantime, the rainfall/snowfall maps from your office are still quite useful.

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