NOAA's Climate Prediction Center (CPC) released its preliminary winter outlook for 2009-2010, and it's calling for milder than normal conditions over the Prairies for the upcoming winter. This is in response to the current El Nino that is expected to persist and possibly strengthen over the winter months. The first half of October has been well below normal due to a stubborn polar vortex over Hudson Bay that has maintained cold weather over much of the Prairies. There are hints that this pattern will relax over the next week or two allowing for more seasonal temperatures for the second half of October. The latest CPC 30 day outlook calls for milder than normal conditions over the Prairies through mid-November.See the winter outlook from NWS Grand Forks for a more detailed discussion on the weather influences and trends expected for the Red River valley area this upcoming winter.
This weekend looks really nice compared to the cold depressing week we just had!!
ReplyDeleteMind you it will be a little on the windy side!!!
Good news all around Rob n Daniel P.
ReplyDeleteI suddenly like the prospect of plus 10
Also News today from Moscow about plans to redirect Snowfall to the rural areas.
http://www.npr.org/templates/story/story.php?storyId=113857836
Yeah, it's looking better for the second half of October.. after such a cold start. Interesting stats from NWS Omaha that of 12 Octobers where they've had snow, only 1 was followed by a below normal winter. Click on my name for more info..
ReplyDeleteI suspect we have October snow more often than Omaha. Fortunately we have had pleasant as well as not so pleasant winters after.
ReplyDeleteBased on ECs data, a particularly snowy Oct 1935 produced an unbelievably cold winter. 24.4 cm of snow were followed by 5 months which averaged 5.0C colder than normal with an avg lo temp of -30.1 in Jan and -30.6 in Feb. These observations were Downtown opposite the Legislature (St Johns college)
5 months relatively as cold as our recent September was hot.
Rob
ReplyDeleteDo you see any chance of mid teen temps in the next 2 weeks. It would at least save some good days for us golfers who've been shut in for this month.
Jim!
ReplyDeleteTomorrow looks to be in the mid teens so you could sneak a golf game in then!
Mind you it could be a little breezy!
Yes, tomorrow is looking like a real nice golf day (or any other outdoor activity).. more sun, less wind, and milder with highs of 15C.. plus no morning frost. We cool off a bit for the upcoming week, with models hinting at another l0-15C day possible by next Saturday.
ReplyDeleteWill be interesting to see how mild we get in southern MB tomorrow. 850 temps get to 12-15C, with a fair bit of sunshine, and light southerly winds. If this was a month earlier, that would translate to temps of 22-25C. Now with the decreased solar strength, and cooler boundary layer temperatures, we won't warm up as much. However 15-18C temps are likely across southern MB tomorrow afternoon, with the potential of a few 20 degree readings over southwest MB through the western RRV (Portage to Morden). Note the 20C readings today over southern AB, and this airmass will be moving over southern MB Sunday.
ReplyDeleteThat forecast ranks up there with almost all of September Keep those optimistic warm fronts coming
ReplyDeletejim
Daniel Thanks for the tip. Now to find a tee time
ReplyDeleteJIm
The ECMWF is showing a very powerful storm early this week in the Dakotas!
ReplyDeleteI wonder if there is any chance of that heading into Southern Manitoba???
Kinda off topic but....
ReplyDeleteHas anyone heard how powerful Hurricane Rick has become???
180 mph sustained winds.....amazing!!!
Managed to get up to 18C in Steinbach.
ReplyDeleteLooks like tomorrow the NW flow will come back with temperatures taking a nosedive back to below normal values!
ReplyDeleteStill keeping an eye on that system to our south!!!
Might sneak into far Southern Manitoba!
Made it to 16C in southwest Winnipeg.. with 20C temperatures further down Highway 3. Mildest day here since September 30. Too bad it was a one day treat..
ReplyDelete@ Hurricane Risk, I heard that also!
ReplyDeleteAt it's peak, Rick was the second strongest East Pacific Hurricane on record, just behind Linda of 1997.
*Rick, ahhh typos. They get the best of me.
ReplyDelete