Thursday, October 08, 2009

Heavy snow event shaping up for Riding Mountain/Dauphin area Friday

A low pressure system over southwest Saskatchewan this morning will track into southwest Manitoba by Friday morning, bringing an area of heavy snow with it. The system will be slow moving and intensifying due to strong upper support and lift in the atmosphere, which will bring a relatively small but intense area of snow over southwest Manitoba Friday into Friday night. At this point, it appears that the Riding Mountain area including Dauphin will bear the brunt of the heaviest snow.. with models indicating that 15 - 30 cm of snow is possible in some areas by Saturday morning. A winter storm watch has been issued for the area advising of the potential of this heavy snow event. Stay tuned..

And although it's a little early in the season for a significant snowfall, it's not unusual. Just 4 years ago on October 5 2005, a record early season snowstorm dumped up to 45 cm of snow over southwest Manitoba near Pilot Mound area as well as North Dakota, with 5-10 cm in Winnipeg. Here's a list of the earliest October snowfalls of 2 cm or more in Winnipeg..

Oct 1 1996 ...... 4.0 cm
Oct 2 1950 ...... 12.7 cm
Oct 4 1952 ...... 8.6 cm
Oct 5 1876 ...... 11.4 cm
Oct 5 1925 ...... 5.1 cm
Oct 5 2002 ...... 4.0 cm
Oct 5 2005 ...... 5.0 cm (est)
Oct 7-8 1985 .... 13.8 cm
Oct 8 1959 ...... 2.5 cm
Oct 8 1875 ...... 2.5 cm
Oct 8 1987 ...... 2.0 cm
Oct 9 2009 ...... 10.0 cm
Oct 10 1883 ..... 10.9 cm
10 1959 ..... 5.1 cm
Oct 10 1919
..... 3.3 cm


  1. Unreal!

    Well can't say that Manitoba's weather is boring!!!

    We went from the warmest September on record to now this October is WELL below normal with early season snowfalls!

  2. Berens River 11AM Wx !!

    SPECI CYBV 08 1637Z 35004KT 3/4SM -SN VV005 RMK SN8=

    SPECI CYBV 08 1620Z 33008KT 1 1/2SM -SN VV009 RMK SN8=

    METAR CYBV 081600Z 36012KT 15SM -SN FEW012 BKN018 OVC067 02/00 A2981
    RMK SC2SC4AS2 VIS W 10 SLP107=

  3. I see that Environment has issued snowfall warnings for Berens River!

    It is very difficult to forecast for that area because the temperature is hovering around 1 C!

    snow, then rain and back and forth making forecasting a nightmare!!!

  4. Light Snow reported in Portage La Prairie as of 12:36!

    Is Portage La Prairie airport a manned weather station or automated????

  5. Potage is manned during the day only, weekdays..

    And this just in.. Rainshowers mixing with snow at Winnipeg airport as of 1:11 pm. It's heeeere.... :(

  6. Snowing in Steinbach...some ice pellets mixed in.

  7. High resolution models are going crazy with the snowfall amounts for Dauphin area Friday into Friday night. GEM paints 48 cm of snow for Dauphin Friday into Saturday, while NAM indicates 58 cm. The lower resolution models are more conservative showing more like 10-15 cm. This indicates that the high res models are possibly overdoing the amounts due to the convective aspect of this system. So while locally heavy bands of snow are likely, storm amounts of 50-60 cm are likely overdone. PASPC is indicating 20-35 cm possible with this storm system by Saturday which looks like a good estimate.

    Note that Saskatoon is reporting moderate snow right now with this system with a visibility of 3/8 mile.

  8. John Sauder on CBC news at 5 had an excellent graphic and explanation on the effect and lift from Riding Mountain. Might be on their site.

    At this time looks like driving to the area would be better Friday afternoon than Saturday n'est pas?


  9. Isn't this how that wet fall started last year with 15mm rain on Oct 6/08 and 25mm on Oct 12 Translates to 40 cm of early season wet snow. Good news is that it is west of the RRV so far.

  10. EC really going for a hard freeze tonite... I am not so sure though.

    Visible satellite reveals still some lower level stratus off to our NE that has to rotate thru. By the early hours of the morning, higher level cloud and SE flow ahead of the disturbance will stabilize the temperature atleast just west of the RRV. What is your take Rob?

    A hard freeze of that magnitude would pretty much ensure we will not see any fall colors on the trees this year. The urban canopy is still pretty much green and likely has not hardened off due to the displaccemnt of the seasons this year.

  11. edit...

    there is still some stratus off to our *NW* that will advect in shortly.

  12. The winnipeg airport as of 7:00p.m is already 0 C!

    I'm at my parents place in Elie and sky have pretty much cleared here!

    How low can we go???

  13. Daniel..

    Yes, we do pick up a light SE wind overnight which would stabilize the temperature drop at Winnipeg airport. It all depends on how quickly the temperature drops until then. -5C may be a bit on the low side, but it's possible if winds are light enough through 4 or 5 am. Looks like skies should be mainly clear until then. In any case, anything still living will freeze tonight whether it's -2C or -5C.

  14. Skies have cleared out completely and with a light NW wind temperatures should take a nosedive!

    I was looking at some temperatures around the western Canada and saw Calgary with a temperature of -7 with a windchill of -16!

    Now that is VERY COLD for this time of year !!!

  15. Based on high resolution IR satellite imagery... looks like thick clouds associated with the system will reach Winnipeg and points NW in approx 4 hours.

    As Rob mentioned... its is all a question of how far temps can drop, but if we do get even the slighteset east breeze, temps may not tank at YWG before that nice blanket covers us.

  16. Rob!

    Portage La Prairie forecast for tonight is for 5- 10 of snow!

    Winnipeg forecast is for clearing skies this evening!!!



  17. Banff takes the cake. -19 C this morning. Brrr! That's wintry even by tough Prairie standards.

  18. Re: Portage 5-10 cm tonight but not Winnipeg..

    This is due to expected lake effect off Lake Manitoba. Northwest winds on the backside of this system will create locally heavy snowsqualls off Lake Manitoba that could give 5-10 cm or more to Portage region.. The squalls are expected to stay just west of Winnipeg but will be close. Nonetheless I still think we'll see some snow in Winnipeg tonight into Saturday as this low moves over and past us.

  19. Ridiculously cold over southern SK this morning.. -7C temps with 30-50 km/h winds. Too darn cold for Oct 9th..

  20. Looks like a area of snow is slowly heading toward Portage La Prairie!

    It should be snowing hard there in about an hour!

    Question is will that area of snow make it to Winnipeg giving us a few hours of snow!

  21. Rob

    Have we ever had a - (minus) Mean temp for the Month of October The next 7 days definitely will produce a minus Mean .

    Whats the current Mean low record?

    PS May experience some first hand Southern Sask cold tomorrow am. Cold with 50Km wind gusts I understand. Should be a good rehearsal for xmas rural driving

  22. Heavy rain /snow mix at my place by the Grace Hospital!!!

    Portage La Prairie is down to 1 km in snow!! as of 12:36

  23. Good burst of snow with visibility at or below 1 mile heading towards Winnipeg from the west. Should reach western limits of the city by 3 pm.

  24. Sylvia Kuzyk just said she wouldn't be surprised if Winnipeg was added to the warning area within the next hour or few hours or so.

    How likely is this to happen? Snowsquall bands continue to affect the city.

  25. My grass is almost all gone now, here in Silver Heights, and the snow continues to fall. Looks like I won't be needing the lawn mower anymore. At 6:30pm I have about 3cm on the ground. Radar is showing a nice streamer just west of the city.

  26. I've got 2-3 cm in Charleswood as of 8 pm, and it's snowing thick and heavy here right now as we get affected by that Lake Manitoba snowband. Conditions got worse and worse as I headed west from downtown. Everything's covered, including roads which are getting slippery. Lost a lot leaves today with that -6C this morning and the snow this afternoon/evening. Hard to believe we were still enjoying summer two weeks ago.

  27. The heaviest of the snowsquall band off Lake Manitoba seems to have shifted directly into the City of Winnipeg now.

    The white stuff is coming down pretty heavy here now. The accumulation on my lilac trees and their green leaves looks pretty neat haha.

    Any thoughts on this band, will it likely shift back westwards, or is it possible for it to maintain itself through the city?

  28. Jon..

    Looks like it will stay locked over the city through 10-11 pm then there's a break in the snowband which should lessen the snowfall intensity. Radar hints at further develpoment of the band upstream which may bring it back into the city after midnight but tought to say since the main area of lift starts to move off by then which may weaken off lake activity.

    I'm up to about 4 or 5 cm now in Charleswood and it's still coming down pretty good..

  29. Okay, thanks Rob!

    In St. Vital I'm up to about 4-5 cm also. I for one can't wait until it all melts, haha!

    Another thing I noted while looking at the models is that the WRF shows the potential at yet another snow event possible for Thanksgiving Monday, while the GFS forecasts this system to stay well south of the border. What do you think the chances are for another system here for the latter half of the weekend?

  30. For what it's worth, the Canadian GLB is also showing the bulk of the snow staying south of the border. I'm hoping that the NAM is just being overly aggressive in pushing the snow that far north.. I'm already sick of the snow! :)

  31. My opinion is the same as more October snow! Let's hope it's just being overly aggressive with that low!

    The Lake Manitoba snowsquall seems to have diminished for the time being, but snow continues to fall fairly steadily here. I'd estimate 5-6 cm on the ground in my yard.

  32. Rob!
    If we got close to 10 cm of snow last night in Winnipeg and area that would warrant putting this snowfall event on your list of early October snowfalls!

    Did you hear who got the most snow out of this system???

  33. AWCN11 CWWG 100100
    Summary weather statement issued by Environment Canada at 8:00 PM CDT
    Friday 9 October 2009.

    Unofficial snowfall reports from the system currently affecting Southern Manitoba.

    Locality.... Amount ....... Time of observation

    Fisher Branch.... 18 cm ....... 7:00 PM
    Dauphin ......... 15 cm (EST).. 3:00 PM
    Ste Rose ........ 15 cm ....... 12:00 PM
    McCreary.......... 13 cm ....... 12:00 PM
    Alonsa ........... 13 cm ........ 2:00 PM
    Rossburn.......... 11 cm ........ 8:00 AM
    Dauphin........... 10 cm ........ 9:00 AM
    Gilbert Plains ... 10 cm ........ 8:00 AM
    Hecla Island...... 10 cm ........ 3:00 PM
    Strathclair....... 8 cm ........ 8:00 AM

    Additional snowfall is expected across the area as this system Slowly tracks eastward.

    To report snowfall amounts in your area to Environment Canada Please call 1-800-239-0484 or email at storm@ec.Gc.Ca (small

  34. 10 cm on the ground in Charleswood this morning.. side roads very icy.

  35. Snowfall amount at my place is 4cm this morning. I suspect that a lot of melting occurred. If all the snow would have accumulated, my actual total would have been more like 8cm.

    The GFS (06Z) has now come on board with a more northerly track for that Monday system - with about 5cm for SE MB. On the other hand, the latest NAM (12Z) shifts the system even farther north, giving SE MB 10 to 15cm of snow. Winnipeg would probably see 4 to 8cm under this scenario, while Sprague could approach 20cm...Steinbach would be in between with 10 to 15cm.

    We have to start watching out for the phenomenon I call the "early peak". This is when the models show a really heavy snowfall event (peak in the snowfall forecast) during the 60-84hr timeframe, but then slowly begin to back off. By the time we get to the actual event, the system is no longer forecast to affect us - or does, but with limited effects. This happened countless times last year...The models showed heavy snow for Manitoba, but then began shifting it farther south into ND.

    However, this year started off in an interesting fashion. This last Alberta Clipper performed the opposite of what I jut described. IT was first forecast to imapct ND, but then shifted north into MB. I guess we'll just have to wait and see what happens with the next system.

  36. NAM continues to be the odd man out on that system for Monday.. with all other models keeping precip shield well to the south of us. We'll see who's right..

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