Thursday, September 10, 2009

Showers/thunderstorms developing late today into tonight.. more rain Friday

It will be another warm day today over southern MB with sunshine and temperatures near 27C this afternoon. A system moving into North Dakota this afternoon into this evening will trigger a few showers and thunderstorms.. mainly over North Dakota with some of the activity spreading into southern MB this evening into tonight. There is a slight risk of severe thunderstorms mainly south of the border where low level moisture will be more favourable for stronger storms. The weather system will slowly move across southern MB on Friday bringing more widespread showers over southern MB.. with 5-15 mm of rain possible over most areas. Some leftover showers on Saturday will give way to dry weather by Sunday.. with temperatures still remaining above normal into next week.

60 comments:

  1. The SPC rules us out (again) for any tornadic potential, so pretty much if there is any severe storms, the main threat will be hail and strong winds as usual.

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  2. Dewpoints rising nicely across eastern North Dakota into the southern RRV.. with values of 15-18C now. CAPE values of 1000-2000 being observed over eastern ND where low level moisture is deeper. With increasingly favourable dynamics moving in later today into this evening, we should see some decent storms developing across eastern ND possibly moving into southern RRV/SE MB tonight.

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  3. Rob!

    Reading environment Canada discussion at 2:00 statement sounds like there might be some severe storms in the evening hours with some supercells structures to the storms!!!

    This will most likely be our last severe weather episode so I better get the camera ready!!!!!

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  4. A trough associated with the low pressure system in SK is moving towards the RRV, this will likely be the focus for storms. CAPE values should jump up rapidly as upper-level moisture moves in during the afternoon. CAPE values should sit around 2000J/kg by evening, with 30 to 40kts of bulk shear. LCLs and EHI values are too low for tornadic activity, but supercells are still possible (although I prefer 40 to 50kts of bulk shear for supercells).

    I like a window for initiation between 21 and 00Z. Earlier the better, but after 00Z the cap will quickly build again, making surface based convection difficult.

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  5. Looks like a large cumulus field is starting to form south of the border!

    I would expect storm development soon and those storms to drift into southern Manitoba after dark!

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  6. The line of storms to the west of Morden will become severe quite rapidly as they approach the Red River. An extremely unstable and uncapped environment lies around Morden and east.

    They have been fighting the cap so far, but once they move farther east, the cap won't be a problem.

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  7. Scott!
    You are right!

    That storm to the west of Morden is showing some signs of large hail now with nexrad radar out of Grand Forks showing 1.50 inch hail!

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  8. Looking at the Woodlands radar that storm to the west of Morden has just EXPLODED!!

    One frame of the radar it is a weak shower the next it is a very intense storm!
    Whoa!

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  9. That storm is beginning to show supercellular characteristics. On the NWS RADAR you can see that the storm has rotation.

    If it does become a supercell, large hail is a certainty.

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  10. That storm looks like it wants to split...A splitting supercell?

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  11. Yes, a nice looking storm... last scan hints of the storm possibly backbuilding which would cause very heavy rain south of Manitou area. Another storm firing up a little further northeast of this cell. Severe tstm watch now extended up into Winnipeg.

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  12. NWS radar zoomed in to the cell: http://www.wunderground.com/radar/radblast.asp?ID=MVX&lat=0&lon=0&label=you&type=N0R&zoommode=pan&map.x=400&map.y=240&centerx=531&centery=655&prevzoom=zoom&num=6&delay=15&scale=0.357&showlabels=1&smooth=1&noclutter=0&showstorms=10&rainsnow=0&lightning=1

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  13. That southern storm is showing a hook echo on the radar with some strong rotation!!!

    Look out!

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  14. It is a very powerful storm. Conditions for tornadoes aren't the greatest, but you can never rule out the chance completely.

    Nevertheless, that storm is producing very large hail and strong wind gusts.

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  15. NWS radar storm track is estimating 3.25 inch hail with that storm!!!

    Is that baseball size hail???

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  16. 3.25" is almost grapefruit sized...and larger than baseballs.

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  17. Looks like another large cell is starting to pop up near Winkler. Reports of softball sized hail are being reported from the cell near Pembina.

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  18. Yes there are calls coming into the Weather Network of baseball to softball size hail!

    Amazing!

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  19. Storms are already falling and tearing apart because of the fact that the cap is starting to get stronger since it is after 00Z. Might be our last round guys.

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  20. There are reports of toonie sized hail west of Manitou.

    I don't think the storms are weakening. Because this storm is a cluster, some parts grow and some parts weaken. If you look at the cloud tops, the storm is still growing.

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  21. Storms moving very slowly, eastern portion of the cell in Morden starting to move easterly on one-frame comparison.

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  22. Looks like we've got a hail spike on RADAR.

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  23. Hail spike ????
    What is that???

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  24. The hail spike is that blue line coming out the bottom of the storm.

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  25. Northern portion of the cell off to the south has really weakened, while Morden is in the brunt of another cell.

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  26. Radar is really starting to light up!

    Look at all the back building of storms in the Pilot Mound area.
    Someone is going to get a lot of rain!

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  27. Storms are beginning to form into a line as expected.

    RADAR estimates that 60 to 100mm has already fallen west of Morden. More storms are still coming through, which could mean flash flooding.

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  28. Looking at the radar at last few hours someone is gonna need a canoe in the morning :0

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  29. anyone else seeing lightning from winnipeg?

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  30. 10:00 pm observation at the Winnipeg airport states a "thunderstorm with rain"
    hmmmm... I live near the airport and they ain't no storm here!!!!

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  31. Nope, not here as well. Must be based on reports from the southern portion of the city.

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  32. The official observation from Winnipeg airport is 15 miles visibity with thunder, but no rainshowers observed. (15 TS) Weatheroffice website has decoded the METAR incorrectly to add rain.. even though no rain is observed.

    Nice light show to the south of me in Charleswood with thunder.. but no rain here either. Looks like all the fireworks are staying mainly south of Morris tonight..

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  33. METAR CYWG 110300Z 19014KT 15SM TS FEW025CB BKN094 OVC250 24/20 A2997 RMK CB2AC2CI4 CB/NMRS LTGIC S QUAD SLP151=

    Remarks, CB Numerous Lightning In Cloud South Quadrant

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  34. Looks like a bow -echo storm is starting to take shape!

    Areas east of Emerson is gonna get one heck of a windstorm!

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  35. This storm is moving in all directions. It was moving NE, now it looks to be bowing towards the SSE. I don't know what I will see in Steinbach...but the rain should start very soon.

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  36. Their is some intense lighting north of the city. It looks like huge fireballs with the clouds around it.

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  37. North of the city? Nothing showing up on radar there.. I wonder if its flashes reflecting from the southern activity?

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  38. What is causing the storms not to come further north???

    It seems like there is a invisible barrier to prevent any movement northward....

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  39. The southern MB activity looks warm-frontal.. oriented west-east with regeneration on the west side where the low level jet intersects the warm front. This would explain why the band is fairly stationary and staying mainly south of us as the upper low slips to our south tonight. The ND activity looks more cold frontal in nature.. oriented more north-south.. which fits with the frontal trough pushing in from the west.

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  40. Weatheroffice still reporting "Thunderstorm with rain" in Winnipeg for 2 hours now.. even though the official observation has yet to report a drop of rain. I sent Weatherofice a bug report to advise them of the coding error.

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  41. METAR CYWG 110400Z 24005KT 15SM TS FEW025CB BKN090 OVC250 22/17 A2996
    RMK CB2AC3CI2 CB/NMRS LTGIC S QUAD AND DSNT NE SLP148=

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  42. Some light rain just starting now in Charleswood..

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  43. Huh, what's with the dewpoint crash over the past hour? (18C to 13C at U of M site)

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  44. A very light rain in the west end of Winnipeg (Westwood) 23:50 hrs local.

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  45. METAR CYWG 110500Z 22008KT 15SM -TSRA SCT045CB BKN092 OVC250 21/14
    A2999 RMK CB3AC4CI1 NMRS LTGIC E-SW AND DSNT NE SLP155=

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  46. Dewpoint dropped here too... and the airport. Winds shifting into the southwest probably tapping some of that cooler drier air to the west of us.. Nice to feel some cooler air coming in after that muggy evening!

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  47. Heavy rain continues to regenerate over the Pilot Mound-Morden area.. that area is really getting soaked tonight! (around Manitou area)

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  48. Yes Rob. Lightning north of the city. It's not refection can see the actual lighting but very yellow in color and does not appear to be moving very much. Just continues in the same general area. Just taking a guess I'm thinking about 10-20 miles out. Can't hear the thunder except some moving in now from the south.

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  49. Thunderstorm watch for Winnipeg was just cancelled.

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  50. Chris - Windsor Park10:25 AM, September 11, 2009

    All summer long the warm weather was just a week away, always just a week away.

    Now the cool weather is always just a week away.

    I can get used to this trend.

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  51. Yeah.. isn't it great to have one cool day followed by 5 warm ones instead of the other way around?!

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  52. Rob!
    Any rainfall totals from last night?

    Someone got a EPIC rainfall!!!

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  53. Morden got 43 mm up to midnight.. and Winkler got about 50 mm last night. Much higher taotals I'm sure between Pilot Mound and Morden but I haven't heard anything. Note that radar rainfall estimates will likely be overdone with last night's activity due to hail contamination affecting the accumulation algorithms..

    Only about 7 mm at my place overnight.. but I see some more rain on the way from the east now.

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  54. Another 21mm at Morden today . Appears to be 64mm for this system.

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  55. Let me be the first to absolutely gaurantee we will break the dismal record cold for consecutive months mean Temp.

    This month's Mean is +7.5C ABOVE normal according to Robs Data . One third of the month is in.

    Given the consensus forecast for the next five days we would need to average mean temps less than than +4C for the rest of the month not to break our 9 consecutive month string.

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  56. Speical weather statement on last night's severe weather. Rainfall totals of 100-200 mm from Pilot Mound area to southern Red River valley with area west of Morden hardest hit!
    -----------------------
    Severe thunderstorms formed over southern Manitoba on Thursday evening, causing some significant rainfalls, large hail and severe
    wind gusts. The following is an unofficial summary of the events reported to Environment Canada as of 4:00 PM CDT.

    La riviere.............29 mm hail
    5 km se of darlingford... 150 mm rain, 27 mm hail
    Thornhill............ 190 mm rain
    8 km se of Plum Coulee....105 mm rain
    Altona................95 mm rain
    Letellier............125 mm rain
    Arnaud...............125 mm rain
    6 km nw of Emerson...125 mm rain
    Crystal City......... 125 mm rain

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  57. Jim..

    Currently, our monthly average is at 19.8C.. which is 3C warmer than Winnipeg's warmest September ever in 1948 (16.8C) Obviously our average will go down as the month progresses, but with no signs of any major pattern change to well below temperatures in the near future, we may be looking at one of Winnipeg's warmest Septembers on record. After 9 months of below normal, we deserve it!

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  58. Last night's severe activity is getting fairly late in the season.. but we had a similar severe weather event even later last year, on September 23rd. See my blog entry below..

    http://robsobsblog.blogspot.com/2008/09/strong-thunderstorms-bring-heavy-rain.html

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