Enjoy the mild temperatures much of this week.. because long range models are pointing towards a big change in the weather pattern for next week here in southern MB. The big change will be beginning by this weekend over the western Prairies, with much colder air and potentially heavy snow moving into southern Alberta. Progs are hinting at a snowstorm for Calgary by Friday, and then another more widespread snowstorm for southern AB by Sunday. Eventually, this colder airmass will be spreading east over southern MB by early next week, with temperatures dropping to below normal values for much of next week. In addition, we could even be seeing some snowfall here in southern MB by mid week next week as this colder airmass moves over the province. So don’t put away that winter gear just yet.. winter is still lurking on the horizon!
I was just looking at the GFS for next week. Over South-Eastern Alberta and the Cypress Hills region of Saskatchewan things could get quite interesting. A system looks to spread snow across those regions by Sunday morning. And stick around until Tuesday evening. The precipitation will never be extremely heavy, but constant and accumulating at a moderate pace. On average if that forecast hold that region of the Prairies could see between 60 and 80cm of snow, with up to 90cm possible!
ReplyDeleteRob have you seen that GFS, and what do you think? It looks like Southern Manitoba will also see precipitation from that system, it will either be heavy rain or snow. The Interlake looks like it could get very heavy snow, and Eastern Manitoba could get a mix, or just rain.
Yes, the GFS is looking scary for southern AB on Sunday, and the Canadian GLB is painting a similar scenario. Heavy snow, cold temps and strong winds will make it very winterlike out there. Meanwhile, we will be on the warm side of the storm system on Sunday and Monday, with even a chance of thunderstorms over us as warm and more humid air south of us is transported north. Eventually this storm system will wrap colder air over us, but hopefully the main pcpn shield will miss us by the time it's cold enough for snow. Whatever the case, it should be an active period with this volatile system.
ReplyDeleteAt this point, long range models like the GFS and GLB offer unique solutions as to what may happen. It's best to consult ensemble outlooks for a more general idea on how this system may evolve.
I guess we should not be putting away the snow clearing equipment as of yet. What are the odds Winnipeg will see snow at this point?
ReplyDeleteWheee!
ReplyDeleteI hope it pans out and we get a huge dump of snow in sw Alberta. Can't wait to see what the GEM and WRF have to say about the first 3 days of next week in regards to precip. Not looking forward to the cold at all!
You guys look to get creamed on Tuesday?
Tough to say right now about how this will evolve for southern MB next week.. lots of spread in the ensemble solutions at this point. Pretty good agreement that southern AB/southwest SK will get a good dump of snow out of this over the weekend.. but after that, models having some problems resolving how this one will play out for us.
ReplyDeleteLooks like that 3 day snowstorm quickly evaporated with the next run of the GFS. Still looks like 15 to 25cm of snow could fall there though. That would be nothing to laugh about this time of year.
ReplyDeleteIt will be almost impossible to tell what we will get until closer to the event. The temperature gradient is so packed at this point that the rain/snow line will have to be determined likely the "day of". That may be similar to the late March event, where meteorologists didn't really know precisely what would happen until a few hours before.
Latest models now taking brunt of storm over SW Saskatchewan for Sunday and Monday.. with near blizzard conditions possible from Saskatoon to Cypress Hills. Models still having difficulty resolving degree and intensity of digging upper trof over west coast over the weekend and how energy will wrap around upper low into system ejecting into northern plains. Suspect there will be a myriad of model solutions coming up before we get a clearer handle on this upcoming storm system.
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