Wednesday, June 06, 2007

More rain on the way.. heavy at times..

Looks like another shot of rain is headed for Southern MB.. and rainfall will likely be heavy at times overnight through Thursday with amounts of 25-50 mm possible across southern MB including Winnipeg. A major storm system is developing over the northern Plains states, which will likely bring a severe weather outbreak through the northern and central plains , especially from South Dakota into Kansas where tornadoes, damaging winds and large hail are likely. For us in Southern MB, we'll likely miss out on severe weather, but we'll see lots of rain. An inital band of rain will move in this afternoon giving 5 to 10 mm by evening. Things will get more interesting tonight as thunderstorms from the plains system push northward from the Dakotas into southern MB spreading heavy rain across the Red River valley overnight through Thursday. Most places will likely see at least 25 mm of rain by Thursday evening, with some places likely getting 50 mm or more. It will also turn windy Thursday with strong northerly winds gusting to 70 km/h and temperatures only around 10 degrees or so. What a lovely June day Thursday will be! The good news is that we should clear out Thursday night with drier and warmer weather forecast through the upcoming weekend.

5 comments:

  1. SPC has shifted the moderate risk area further north into much of North Dakota.. could be seeing a significant squall line of thunderstorms develop this afternoon spreading eastward into eastern Dakotas and western MN this evening/tonight. Main threat will be damaging winds and large hail.. discrete supercells for tornadoes will be more isolated, but still possible. Dew points not terribly impressive given the set up and time of year..only about 15-18C or so. If we had 20+C dewpoints advecting into this storm.. wow!

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  2. Good downpour here past hour or so.. my station in Charleswood has picked up 16 mm of rain this afternoon, 15 of that between 4 and 5 pm. And the main event hasn't even started yet! Looks like we can easily get another 25 mm overnight through Thursday.

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  3. Chris In Westwood9:11 PM, June 06, 2007

    Hi Rob,
    I measured 19mm on my guage here on Carroll Road in Westwood from noon wednesday to 9:00 PM wednesday.

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  4. Wow...lots of convection going on south of us. There is an incredibly long line of thunderstorms from near Grand Forks all the way out over Lake Superior. They look to be associated with warm air advection and might brush southeast Manitoba.

    Another batch of storms is forming closer to main low in the dakotas. Here in Winnipeg, it will be interesting to see if we get any thunder. The warm air advection is focused east of us, and the low level moist air and instability looks to remain south of us.

    But the models still paint a lot of steady rain on the cool side of the low for Winnipeg. Who knows...but it looks like a lot of rain will fall south and east of us.

    Dan

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  5. I collected 14 mm near the Grant/Kenaston intersection on Wednesday. It doesn't appear Thursday will be big for precipitation with all that clearing to the west.

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