Long awaited spell of sunshine and drier weather..

After 10 days of generally cool, cloudy and unsettled weather.. the weather pattern will finally be shifting to a drier and warmer trend, at least for the next few days.  Unsettled weather will be moving into the Great lakes while an upper ridge of high pressure builds over the western Prairies by the end of the week. That will allow a much needed break from the frequent storm systems passing through the southern Prairies. After a chilly night tonight with patchy frost in areas, Wednesday should be the nicest day we've seen in a while with plenty of sunshine and temperatures approaching 20C, a mark we haven't hit in Winnipeg since the 23rd.  Even milder weather is forecast Thursday with sunny skies and highs in the low 20s. Friday may see some increasing cloud and a small chance of showers, but generally most places should be rainfree with drier and warmer conditions expected into the weekend.  More organized shower activity is possible later Sunday into Monday as a system tracks across the Prairies.

More rain on the way..

A large area of rain associated with showers and thunderstorms that fired up over the Dakotas overnight is spreading over southern Manitoba and the Red River valley this morning. The main area of rain should be spreading into Winnipeg by mid morning, with about 5-10 mm of rain through midday before tapering off to a few scattered showers this afternoon. Additional showers are possible later this afternoon into this evening with a chance of thunderstorms as the main storm system pushes towards the international border.  Showers should taper off overnight but are likely to move back in Monday afternoon and night as an upper low tracks across southern MB.  Temperatures will continue to run some 10C below normal today and Monday. All in all, a rather dreary forecast for the next few days before we see a turnaround later in the week.

Late season snow blankets parts of western MB

Photo submitted to The Weather
Network shows enough snow to
build a snowman in Russell, MB
May 25 2012

An unseasonably cool airmass combined with moisture from a trough of low pressure over western Manitoba brought a late season snowfall to parts of western Manitoba and eastern SK last night. A cold rain started last evening then changed to wet snow overnight with a few cm of slushy accumulation over the Riding and Duck Mtns and areas near the SK border.  Dauphin and Swan River had a coating of wet snow while 4 cm was recorded in Rossburn, and 4-7 cm through Russell and Roblin MB.  Kamsack, Yorkton, Melville and Regina SK also recorded some wet snow last night.  Snow this late in the year is unusual, but not unprecedented over southern MB, especially in the higher elevations of western MB. Just 3 years ago on May 15th 2009,  the Dauphin area was hit with 20-30 cm of snow from a late season storm. On May 31- June 1 1985, Dauphin and area recorded about 5 cm of snowfall (same day as the Barrie tornado outbreak in southern Ontario). On June 5-6 1901, 5-10 cm of snow was reported in the Turtle Mountain area and parts of western MB.  In Winnipeg, the latest measurable snow on record was 0.5 cm on June 8 1877, with a high of only +5.6C that day.

Major cooldown for Friday and Saturday.. Snow possible for western MB Thursday night? Frost possible Saturday morning over RRV.

Enjoy the 20C temperatures today.. because it will likely be a while before we see temperatures that high again over most of southern MB.  A low pressure system crossing southern Manitoba on Thursday will drag a cold front across the regions later Thursday into Thursday evening, ushering in a much cooler airmass from the north. Showers behind the front Thursday evening may even mix with or change to.. (yikes!) snow.. over higher elevations of western MB Thursday night into early Friday.  Friday will be an unseasonably cool day across southern MB with mainly cloudy skies and temperatures only around 10C for daytime highs..  over 10C below normal for late May.  Skies are expected to partially clear Friday night, which will bring the potential for frost across much of southern MB including Winnipeg by early Saturday morning. Gardeners beware.  Saturday should be dry for the most part, but another major system moving out of the American south will push a warm front into the Dakotas, triggering another round of showers and thunderstorms Saturday night into Sunday over southern MB, with the potential for locally heavy rainfall yet again. Generally dry but cool weather is expected into the first part of next week before a warming trend later in the week.   

Another round of showers and thunderstorms tonight.. locally heavy rain and hail possible

Another round of showers and thunderstorms is on tap for southern Manitoba tonight as a low pressure system over the Dakotas pushes a warm front towards the Manitoba border. Warm and increasingly humid air will spread up through the Dakotas today while cooler air remains entrenched over the southern Prairies. The clash of airmasses and favourable dynamics aloft  will result in widespread showers and embedded thunderstorms developing later today into this evening across southern Manitoba. The best chance of heaviest thunderstorms will be over the Red River valley and southeast MB where strong to locally severe thunderstorms from the Dakotas will be tracking across the border by this evening, as well as developing along the warm front. Main threat with these storms will be large hail and strong winds, with areas of very heavy rain (25-50 mm) possible.  A secondary area of heavy rain is also likely through the Interlake regions tonight into Wednesday as an upper low over southern Saskatchewan tracks slowly eastward into the Manitoba lakes region. Conditions are expected to dry out Thursday and Friday for most of southern Manitoba (rain still possible near Ontario border Thursday)  before more unsettled weather moves in for the weekend.  All in all, a generally unsettled week ahead as we get into a more stormy and variable pattern.