January 2012 3rd warmest January on record in Winnipeg..

January 2012 will go down in the record books as Winnipeg's 3rd warmest January since records began in 1873. The month finished with a monthly mean temperature of -10.8C, 7C above normal, and the mildest January behind 2006 (-7.4C) and 1944 (-10.6C) The month began exceptionally mild with temperatures some 15C above normal over the first 10 days of the month. The only cold weather of the month was between the 17th and 20th when temperatures dropped into the -20s. Other than that, temperatures were above normal nearly every day of the month. The mild weather continued the trend of December which was also well above normal (6C above normal) and ranked as the 9th mildest December on record in Winnipeg. January 2012 marks Winnipeg's 7th consecutive month that has averaged above normal, going back to July 2011.

Top 5 warmest Januarys in Winnipeg (since 1873)

1. 2006 ......... -7.4C
2. 1944 ......... -10.6C
3. 2012 ......... -10.8C
4. 1942 .......... -11.4C
5. 1992 .......... -11.5C

Normal .......... -17.8C (1971-2000 30 year average)

A look at the temperature anomaly map for January (left) shows how the central Prairies experienced the most abnormal warmth during this past month. The persistent warmth this winter can be attributed to a stronger than normal Arctic jet stream which has been generally stuck in a position over the Arctic. This has effectively blocked intrusions of Arctic airmasses southward over the Prairies, while allowing frequent invasions of mild Pacific air from the west. This is a result of a persistently positive phase of the Arctic Oscillation, a climatic pattern affecting the flow of air across the northern latitudes of the globe. This northern oscillation has more than offset the climatic impacts of La Nina, which normally would bring colder and snowier winters to western Canada and the Prairies... an outlook many were predicting this winter. The northern extent of the jet stream has also deflected storms further north, resulting in a notable lack of snow over the prairies, and the 3rd least snowy January on record in the US. Click here for a good summary by Jeff Masters on the impacts of the Arctic oscillation on this year's winter.

Snow and freezing rain spreading towards Winnipeg..

A low pressure system moving across southern MB is bringing a wintery mix of precipitation across southwest MB this afternoon, with snow and freezing rain being reported. Precipitation is falling in the form of snow north of the Yellowhead highway through the Riding Mtns and Dauphin area while freezing rain is being reported along and south of the Yellowhead highway. Freezing rain warnings have been issued for areas west of Winnipeg this afternoon including Portage LP and Brandon. This area of precipitation will move into Winnipeg later this afternoon, possibly starting as freezing rain or ice pellets before changing to snow this evening. Motorists are advised that highways are being reported as ice covered and slippery to the west of Winnipeg, and should be prepared for slick travel conditions on untreated roadways around Winnipeg and the RRV by the evening rush hour.

January to end on milder note with some snow..

January 2012 will be ending much like it began.. with temperatures well above normal. Today's sunshine and "cold" weather (which is actually still a bit above normal) will give way to increasing clouds this afternoon as a warm front approaches from the west. A band of snow ahead of the front (see morning radar image left) will push into Winnipeg/RRV this evening with 2 -4 cm of snow possible tonight. Brisk southeast winds will accompany the snow with some drifting and local blowing snow possible. Snow and wind will taper off by Monday morning with cloudy and milder conditions forecast during the day.

Another band of precipitation is expected by Monday night, with some more snow likely (perhaps another 2-4 cm) along with a risk of freezing rain. (See 48 hr precipitation graph left above from SpotWx.com showing output from last night's RGEM model)


Temperatures will continue well above normal Tuesday with highs near freezing. January 2012 will end up as Winnipeg's 3rd warmest January on record, with a chance of second place honours depending on how mild we get over the next couple of days.

January 2012 on pace for 2nd or 3rd warmest January on record

Other than a few days of below normal weather during the third week of the month, January 2012 has been unseasonably mild over southern Manitoba, running some 7 degrees above normal to date (normal January monthly mean in Winnipeg is -17.8C) The month began with an exceptionally mild start averaging some 15C above normal over the first 10 days of the month, with temperatures soaring to record breaking values of +7C in Winnipeg on the 5th, and +12C over the western RRV. A mini cold snap between the 16th and 21st brought a spell of below normal temperatures in the minus 20s, but the cold snap was short lived as milder weather returned for the last 10 days of the month. As a result, Jan 2012 is on pace to finish with a mean monthly temperature around -10.8C, which would make it the third warmest January in Winnipeg since January records began in 1873. Only Jan 2006 (-7.4C) and Jan 1944 (-10.6C) have been milder in Winnipeg, with January 1942 currently the third warmest at -11.4C. In fact, if milder weather develops as predicted over the last couple of days of the month, January 2012 will challenge Jan 1944 as the second mildest January ever in Winnipeg. This comes off a mild December that was the 9th mildest on record finishing over 6C above normal. This January will also mark the 7th consecutive month of above normal temperatures in Winnipeg, going back to July 2011. And it looks like the above normal temperatures will continue into the beginning of February with well above normal temperatures likely to start the month. It's been quite the ride.. one wonders, how long will it continue?

For additional details on this winter's amazing warmth, see the latest entry from A Weather Moment ("What happened to winter?") (also includes introduction of a new model viewer as well!)

Mild week ahead..

Milder weather is on tap over the next few days as a westerly flow of Pacific air spreads across the Prairies one again this week. Temperatures are forecast to climb to the freezing mark by Wednesday over the RRV along with gusty south winds. Some snow is possible in the wake of this system Wednesday night into Thursday, with colder weather forecast for the weekend. Temperatures however are only expected to drop to near normal values for this time of year, which are highs of -13 and lows of -23C. At this time, there are no indications of a return to the deep freeze that we experienced last week. The tame winter of 2011-12 continues..