Nice start to September

September is off to a fabulous start over southern Manitoba as a large ridge of high pressure dominates the Prairies.  Sunny skies and warm temperatures will persist through the holiday weekend along with light winds. The fine weather is expected to continue through the upcoming week. Note that the forecast high of 18 for Winnipeg on Wednesday looks a little on the cool side based on current guidance which suggests little change to the weather pattern all week. Some cooler air is likely over northern Manitoba on Wednesday but southern Manitoba should still see highs in the low twenties.

 

All in all, a great week or golfing or any other outdoor activities!      

Welcome to September!

Well, after one of our driest and warmest summers on record, September has finally arrived here in Southern Manitoba.. but the weather is still nice. A bit of a cooldown today but still dry with sunshine. And if the guidance is correct, it looks like sunny dry and warm weather will continue right through the first week of September into the second week. Models are indicating a persistent upper ridge over Alberta/Saskatchewan with high pressure dominating at the surface over Manitoba. That means dry weather, and temperatures above normal through the period. A great way to start September, especially if you're not ready to let go of summer yet!

Warm and windy end to August..

The gusty southerly winds that developed over Winnipeg Wednesday continue today, with winds even stronger than yesterday. A southerly low level jet of 50 to 55 knots is seen this morning between 850 and 900 mb, with 40 knots just above the surface. This is stronger than yesterday's low level winds, which should give Winnipeg southerly winds gusting to 70 km/h at times today. The strong southerly flow is ahead of a cold front moving through western Manitoba this morning bringing some scattered shower and thunderstorm activity west of Winnipeg. This front will push through the Red River valley later today into tonight giving a threat of some much needed rain. After some beneficial rains in the first half of August, rainfall has been scarce again over the last half of the month here in Winnipeg which is about to record its third or 4th driest summer on record (depending on if we get any rainfall before midnight tonight) It will also be one of the warmest summers on record, with a mean of 19.8C over the June-August period. (normal 18.3) The warmest summer on record was back in 1961 with a summer average of 20.4C

Today's wind forecast

Morning analysis shows 35-40 knots at 925 mb moving in from the west. This should get us those 50 to 70 km/h gusts I'm expecting in Winnipeg and the Red River valley this afternoon into this evening.. Note that yesterday in southern Saskatchewan, winds of 40 to 70 km/h were common, with even some reduced visbilities in blowing dust at Moose Jaw.

Southerly winds tend to funnel up the Red River valley which generally gives Winnipeg stronger winds than elsewhere in Southern Manitoba given the same gradient.

Wednesday forecast

Well, as Rob's blog told you days ago.. the official forecast for Wednesday now mentions strong south winds developing, and warmer temperatures (28 now instead of 24).

The wind forecast however could still be improved. The official forecast has south winds of 20 km/h becoming 40 gusting 60 "late in the day". I don't think so.. That pressure gradient will support winds of 30 km/h gusting 50 in the morning, increasing to 50 gusting 70 in the afternoon. The strongest winds will likely be between 2 and 8 pm. The strong winds, warm temperatures and low humidity will make for some very strong drying conditions. Not a good day for stubble burning!