A brief dry period.. then another round of showers and thunderstorms on the way Monday night into Wednesday. Areas of heavy rainfall likely especially over southwest Manitoba

It's been a wet week over much of southern Manitoba this past week. Since last Sunday (May 22) general rainfall amounts of 40-70 mm have fallen across much of southern Manitoba, with locally heavier amounts in some places. (I've recorded 70 mm at my site in SW Winnipeg since last Sunday night)  Today saw a welcome break from the unsettled weather with partly sunny skies this afternoon, and we'll enjoy rainfree weather much of Monday before another bout of wet weather moves into southern Manitoba.  The culprit this time will be a developing low pressure system over North Dakota which will spread showers and thunderstorms over southwest Manitoba later Monday into Monday night, moving into the Red River valley Monday night into Tuesday.  The heaviest rain is expected Monday night into Tuesday morning.

Projected rainfall totals (inches) Mon-Wed. Heaviest
rainfall expected over SW MB with 75 mm possible

Rainfall from this system will be highly variable since localized areas will see heavier amounts from slow moving or persistent heavier shower or thunderstorm cells. Places which miss the heaviest convection will see lower amounts. In general, most places in southern Manitoba will likely see 20-30 mm of rain Monday night into Wednesday morning, with heavier totals of 50-75 mm possible in some areas.. especially over the southwest corner of the province (Melita, Virden, etc) where current guidance is indicating the greatest probability of heaviest rainfall.  At this point, one should focus on the potential for heavy rain over the next few days instead of the exact location.. which will likely change slightly as models try to predict the track and intensity of this system.

After a chilly weekend.. things looking up this week.

It was a chilly weekend over southern Manitoba with high temperatures only near 11C Saturday, and 15C today along with some showers.  But the rest of the week is looking up as the cool airmass moves east and a warmer upper pattern re-establishes itself over the Prairies.  The result will be a warmer and drier week coming up with ample sunshine and highs back to the 20C mark by Tuesday, and mid to upper 20s by the end of the week.  The early outlook for the Victoria Day long weekend looks warm and increasingly humid with a chance of showers and thunderstorms by Monday.  

Warm start to week with a cold finish.. and some rain in between..

It's been a summery and dry start to May in southern Manitoba with plenty of sunshine and warm temperatures. As of Sunday May 8, the monthly mean temperature for the month has been 14C in Winnipeg, about 3-4C above normal for the first week of May.  And the warm weather is expected to continue Monday with another sunny but hazy, breezy and dry day, and highs of 25C.  But that will be the end of the warm weather for awhile as the upper weather pattern shifts this week to bring cooler and more unsettled weather into southern Manitoba.  Tuesday will see a band of showers sweep across southern Manitoba ahead of a deepening storm system over Montana and Dakotas.  Scattered showers are expected Wednesday as the storm system slowly tracks across southern Manitoba, before cooler weather arrives Thursday behind the system with northwest winds and occasional rain keeping temperatures only near 10C.  The rain should pull off Friday, but temperatures will be quite chilly with highs only in the single digits of +5-8C, quite a contrast to the how the week started in the mid 20s.

But we can use the rain. Today marked the 3rd straight week with little or no rainfall in Winnipeg and much of southern MB. Preliminary guidance is indicating that 10-20 mm of rain is possible between Tuesday and Thursday across Winnipeg and the RRV. And at this point, not too many people will be complaining considering how dry things have been. In fact the dry weather has led to a couple of large wildfires near the Ontario/Manitoba border over the past few days, and Monday will see high risk fire weather conditions with gusty southeast winds, warm temperatures and low humidity.  

Beautiful weekend ahead.. dry weather to continue for the next week

Finally! A beautiful weekend to enjoy in southern Manitoba. Weekends in April have not been kind to Monday-Friday workers, with below normal temperatures and a washout weekend in mid April. But this weekend looks terrific to enjoy the outdoors and get that BBQ going.. plenty of sun and temperatures in the mid to upper teens, slightly above normal for the end of April (normal highs 15C).  And the good news is the dry weather should continue much of next week, with no major systems expected to impact southern Manitoba through next Friday. In addition, temperatures will be climbing into the mid 20s by the end of week, although there may be a brief cooldown mid week. The next threat of any meaningful rainfall over southern Manitoba looks to be over the weekend of May 7-8th as a storm system tracks across the Dakotas with showers and possible thunderstorms. It's still a week ahead though, and there's still considerable uncertainty on the track of this system and what impacts it will have on southern Manitoba. In the meantime.. enjoy the lovely dry weather!

Seasonably cool but dry week ahead.. stormier and wetter south of US border

Forecast precipitation Apr 23 - 30th (inches) shows dry
conditions over Manitoba but wet south of the US border
(image from NOAA -WPC)  

The last week of April is looking mainly rain-free across most of southern Manitoba as a blocking ridge of high pressure over northern Manitoba maintains cool but dry conditions across the province. Temperatures over southern Manitoba will be in the 10-13C range Sunday through Thursday.. which is just slightly below normal late April highs (14C)  But while we remain dry in southern Manitoba, it will be a different story south of the US border as a couple of strong storm system track across the central plains over the next few days.  On Sunday, a storm system will track across South Dakota spreading showers across North Dakota and northern Minnesota, with locally heavy rain possible.  The pressure gradient between high pressure over northern Manitoba and low pressure over South Dakota will result in a brisk easterly flow across southern Manitoba Sunday, with east to northeast winds of 40 gusting 60 km/h expected. Those winds will add a bit of a chill to an otherwise fairly nice day Sunday.

Severe weather risk map for Tuesday April 26th
shows severe storms possible through southern plains
(Weather Network graphic)  

Tuesday will see another storm system tracking a bit further south, across western Kansas, bringing a severe weather threat across the US "tornado alley" from northern Texas through Oklahoma into Kansas. In fact, the US Storm Prediction Center (SPC) in Norman OK has already warned of a potential outbreak of severe storms Tuesday with violent tornadoes and large hail possible. Stay tuned on this developing system for early next week. The system will also spread additional rain across much of South Dakota, some of it locally heavy. The system is expected to push east into the Ohio Valley by mid week with high pressure continuing to dominate over Manitoba. The result will be a dry week here with seasonably cool temperatures gradually warming to normal or above normal values by the end of the week.  Overall, it looks like parts of North Dakota, Minnesota and South Dakota could see 25-50 mm of additional rainfall over the upcoming week.