It's been a summery and dry start to May in southern Manitoba with plenty of sunshine and warm temperatures. As of Sunday May 8, the monthly mean temperature for the month has been 14C in Winnipeg, about 3-4C above normal for the first week of May. And the warm weather is expected to continue Monday with another sunny but hazy, breezy and dry day, and highs of 25C. But that will be the end of the warm weather for awhile as the upper weather pattern shifts this week to bring cooler and more unsettled weather into southern Manitoba. Tuesday will see a band of showers sweep across southern Manitoba ahead of a deepening storm system over Montana and Dakotas. Scattered showers are expected Wednesday as the storm system slowly tracks across southern Manitoba, before cooler weather arrives Thursday behind the system with northwest winds and occasional rain keeping temperatures only near 10C. The rain should pull off Friday, but temperatures will be quite chilly with highs only in the single digits of +5-8C, quite a contrast to the how the week started in the mid 20s.
But we can use the rain. Today marked the 3rd straight week with little or no rainfall in Winnipeg and much of southern MB. Preliminary guidance is indicating that 10-20 mm of rain is possible between Tuesday and Thursday across Winnipeg and the RRV. And at this point, not too many people will be complaining considering how dry things have been. In fact the dry weather has led to a couple of large wildfires near the Ontario/Manitoba border over the past few days, and Monday will see high risk fire weather conditions with gusty southeast winds, warm temperatures and low humidity.