|Projected rainfall totals (inches) Mon-Wed. Heaviest |
rainfall expected over SW MB with 75 mm possible
Sunday, May 29, 2016
A brief dry period.. then another round of showers and thunderstorms on the way Monday night into Wednesday. Areas of heavy rainfall likely especially over southwest Manitoba
It's been a wet week over much of southern Manitoba this past week. Since last Sunday (May 22) general rainfall amounts of 40-70 mm have fallen across much of southern Manitoba, with locally heavier amounts in some places. (I've recorded 70 mm at my site in SW Winnipeg since last Sunday night) Today saw a welcome break from the unsettled weather with partly sunny skies this afternoon, and we'll enjoy rainfree weather much of Monday before another bout of wet weather moves into southern Manitoba. The culprit this time will be a developing low pressure system over North Dakota which will spread showers and thunderstorms over southwest Manitoba later Monday into Monday night, moving into the Red River valley Monday night into Tuesday. The heaviest rain is expected Monday night into Tuesday morning.
Rainfall from this system will be highly variable since localized areas will see heavier amounts from slow moving or persistent heavier shower or thunderstorm cells. Places which miss the heaviest convection will see lower amounts. In general, most places in southern Manitoba will likely see 20-30 mm of rain Monday night into Wednesday morning, with heavier totals of 50-75 mm possible in some areas.. especially over the southwest corner of the province (Melita, Virden, etc) where current guidance is indicating the greatest probability of heaviest rainfall. At this point, one should focus on the potential for heavy rain over the next few days instead of the exact location.. which will likely change slightly as models try to predict the track and intensity of this system.
Posted by rob at 7:28 PM