Mother Nature is finally relenting.. but not after giving southern Manitoba a parting shot of Arctic like weather this past week including blinding blizzard conditions Thursday, then bone-chilling frigid cold Friday with windchills of -40 to -45. The good news is that the worst of the bitter cold is over.. for at least a week anyways.. as a milder Pacific flow sets up over the Prairies this week, pushing out Arctic air that has been entrenched over southern Manitoba much of the month. Today will see temperatures near the normal high of -13C, and with sunshine and light winds, it will feel some 20 degrees warmer than Friday. Sunday is looking even better as temperatures finally climb into the minus single digits for the first time since Jan 1st. The rest of the week is looking wonderful.. dry and mild with temperatures well above normal reaching the freezing mark by mid week, then a January thaw likely by the end of the week as temperatures climb to +1 to +3C over the Red River valley. This will be welcome news for winter weary Manitobans who have had endure 2 straight weeks of cold and snow, icy roads and general cabin fever. The good news is that the warmup will not be accompanied by any major weather systems this week, so the week is not only looking mild, but precipitation free as well! The next system that poses a threat for precipitation over the RRV will be next weekend (Jan 21st-22nd) with some possible snow, rain or freezing rain moving into southern MB. Until then .. time to finally get back outside and enjoy the outdoors. Let the warmup begin!
We've been enjoying the best of both worlds this week with well above normal temps and sunshine to boot. But that will be changing tomorrow and through the weekend as we get into increasing low level moisture ahead of a system developing over the central plains. That will spread an area of low level cloud over us with increasing dewpoints near the melting point which will result in more widespread drizzle and fog developing over southern MB by Friday evening. This system will even spread some rare January rain over Winnipeg and the RRV with 2-5 mm possible Friday night into early Saturday before it tapers off to a misty drizzle through the weekend. Temperatures will be hovering around the 0C mark from Friday afternoon into Monday, so there will be a lot of sloppy streets with melting snow resulting in puddles and slush.. and some slick spots where temps nudge slightly below freezing. All in all, a damp, drizzly, foggy, overcast but mild weekend as we head into a 3-4 day thaw. Record high minimum temps likely this weekend for Winnipeg (Jan 21-22) as temps stay close to or just above freezing, even through the night. Record high minimum for Jan 21 is -3.3C in 1900, and record for Jan 22 is -3.7C in 2010.. both easily attainable given the outlook this weekend.
ReplyDeleteQuite rare indeed if we really do get those rainfall amounts. Rainiest January on record only had 3.8 mm of rain (1944). Even just 2 mm would be enough to reach 3rd rainiest January. Certainly been quite the interesting weather the past 3 months, going from one extreme to another.
DeleteYeah, wouldn't take much to make it a "significant" rainfall event in January in Winnipeg. Not a common occurrence around here. Got my rain gauge ready!
DeleteIt would be interesting to know how much the snowpack has been affected around McCreary with several days of well above freezing temperatures (and some nights staying above freezing), including the double digit high today. I imgaine it would take a more prolonged stretch to really zap it, but it must be having a noticeable effect?
ReplyDeleteAccording to the automated snow sensor at McCreary weather site, the snowdepth has remained unchanged at 19 cm since the mild spell started. I find it hard to believe that the snowpack didn't go down somewhat with those balmy temps.. but at this time of year, it takes more than just mild temps to knock down snowdepth. Some rain or drizzle along with above freezing dewpoints would help start reducing the snowpack a little more effectively than just above zero temps in dry air.
DeleteNo kidding. The high minimum for the 20th might even be broken if the temperature stays around where it is right now. It certainly hasn't moved much since midnight.
DeleteAnonymous.. You're correct. Minimum temp today at YWG airport was -1.3C, which will easily set a new record high minimum for Jan 20th (previous record for today was -3.6C in 1986)
DeleteI've noted a similar effect with snow sensor data from YWG as well. Snow depth remains constant during periods of considerable melt (using data from Rob's site) - only for the sensor to suddenly measure no snow depth one day. The warm temperatures in those down-slope areas are usually accompanied by considerable mechanical turbulence and wind, so one expects a fair amount of melting.
ReplyDeleteI checked the snow cover analysis from the NOHRSC, which also shows no melting over the region. However its snow cover model from day to day is driven by what ever operational sources are available to it.. possibly the same snow sensor data. Periodically, airborne gamma ray surveys are carried out to measure snow-depth and snow-water equivalent. The last flight was on January 13, and there is no specified date for the next one over our region.
Officially 2.9 mm of rain at YWG airport last evening, makes it the 2nd rainiest January day on record in Winnipeg. Only the 3.8 mm on Jan 20 (same day) 1944 was wetter. That also makes this the 2nd rainiest January on record here, behind only 3.8 mm in 1944. Just goes to show you how unusual rain in January in Winnipeg is.
ReplyDeleteBy the way, I picked up 4.0 mm last evening and overnight at my place. Generally 3-6 mm reported across much of Winnipeg and SE MB last night.
Temps remain mild. A low of +1.1C at the airport last night. If that holds through midnight, it will tie Jan 12 1928 as the warmest January "low" on record in Winnipeg. Since 1873, there have been only 2 dates in January in which the temperature hasn't dropped below freezing at some point during the day: Jan 12 1928 (low of +1.1C) and Jan 14 1894 (low of 0.0C) To have temperatures remain above 0C for 24 hours or more in January here is exceedingly rare. Keep in mind, normal lows right now are -23C!
Low for the day on Jan 21st was +0.9C as temp dropped slightly in the evening. 2nd warmest low on record, and only 3rd time in 144 years where temperature did not drop below freezing at some point during the day.
DeleteAs of noon, the temperature in Winnipeg has been above 0C for a record 56 consecutive hours (old record was 44 straight hrs Jan 8-9 2002). Looks like we'll remain above 0C until 6 pm or so at which time temps should gradually drop below freezing this evening and tonight. Thaw streak could get up to 62 hours by the time it's over, an unprecedented streak of above 0C temps in January here since at least 1953 (when hourly temperature records started) and likely not ever since 1873. The only comparable stretch prior to 1953 was Jan 9-12 1928 when the lowest temperature was only -1.6C over those 4 days. Even so, there was no period where the temp was above 0C for 48 straight hours.. so this above 0C streak of 56+ hours is likely the longest such streak in Winnipeg climate history.
ReplyDeleteTemps tonight will gradually cool off to -4C or so overnight.. not a dramatic freeze, but certainly cold enough for standing water and untreated roads to freeze up by morning. Luckily not a lot of wind to make things worse, but a there will be a bit of a SW breeze to slick things up. Watch for slick conditions on sideroads and walkways overnight into Monday morning.
Airport temp is down to -0.2C as of 11 pm.. which ends our streak of temps >=0C at 67 straight hours. Pretty impressive..
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