Friday, December 02, 2016

A November to remember - warmest November on record in Winnipeg and much of Manitoba

November 2016 will go down as the warmest November in 144 years of records in Winnipeg as a mild pattern that began at the end of October persisted right through the month. In Winnipeg, November ended up with an average monthly temperature of +3.1C, a whopping 8C above the monthly normal of -4.9C, easily beating the previous all time warmest Novembers of 1899 and 1923 at +1.3C. (Records for Winnipeg date back to 1872). Every day of the month was above normal, with an exceptionally mild first half that saw temperatures soar to a record high of 18.8C on Nov 9th.  The main story in November was the notable lack of cold, with only 5 days of the month seeing temperatures of -5C or colder, the fewest such days on record for a November (previous lowest was 7 days in Nov 1899)  Normally, November sees 20 days of -5C or lower, with an average low of -15C by Nov 30th!  The average low during Nov 2016 was an incredible -1.0C, which is just about the normal average HIGH for November (-0.6C)  The lack of cold weather resulted in a delayed start to winter, with the first measurable snow of the season falling on Nov 22nd.. the latest first measurable snow on record in Winnipeg (previous latest was Nov 21 1963) Although a blessing for many, the slow to start to winter was not welcome by all.. especially farmers trying to get work done on still soggy unfrozen fields, and ice fishermen.  For the first time in at least 55 years, there was no ice on Lake Winnipeg as of December 1st. This has caused a significant delay in the ice fishing season and those who rely on ice covered lakes to start winter fishing.

Mean monthly temperatures for November in Winnipeg 1872-2016
November 2016 was by far warmest in 144 year record 

Monthly temperature graph Nov 2016
Every day was above normal

Temperature anomaly map for Nov 2016 shows
core of anomalous warmth was over Manitoba
 


The list of records set in November in Winnipeg is impressive.  Among the notable milestones..
  • warmest November mean temperature (+3.1C, normal -4.9C)
  • warmest November mean daily maximum (+7.2C, normal -0.6C)
  • warmest November mean daily minimum  (-1.0C, normal -9.2C)  
  • most humid November (average dewpoint +0.3C, first time Nov avg over 0C)
  • 2 daily record high maximums (18.8C on Nov 9th, 13.6C on Nov 12th)
  • 3 record warm daily minimums (7.4 Nov 6, 4.8 Nov 9, 0.1 Nov 24
  • least number of days at or below -5C in Nov  (5 - previous low 7 in 1899)
  • least number of days below 0C in Nov (18 - previous low 20 in 2015)
  • latest date of first measurable snowfall of the season (Nov 22nd)  


The record warm November helped give Winnipeg its second warmest climatological fall on record (Sep 1 - Nov 30) with an average temperature of +8.0C, second only to 1963 (+8.6C) 


Average fall temperatures - Winnipeg (1872 - 2016)
graph credit @jjcwpg 
As of December 2nd, the mild weather pattern was persisting over southern Manitoba, with Winnipeg on its 43rd consecutive day above normal (a streak that started Oct 21st)  However, long range outlooks call for a pattern change to colder weather by the middle of next week.. putting an end to incredible 6 1/2 week run of above normal temperatures across southern MB.    

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