Saturday, November 21, 2015

The week ahead..

A general look at the weather this week..

Sunday Nov 22nd: Hi: +1C. 
Some snow then turning milder. 
System tracking through central MB will spread an area of snow across the Interlake and eastern Manitoba. Bulk of snow will be mainly north and east of Winnipeg where 2-5 cm is possible, but Winnipeg will likely see a period of snow between 9 am and 3 pm, with a dusting to 2 cm possible. Once the snow ends, winds will shift into the west and draw in milder air sending temperatures up to the 0 or +1C mark by late afternoon.

Monday Nov 23rd: Hi: +2C 
Fair and mild. 

Tuesday Nov 24: Hi: +1C 
Fair and mild.

Wednesday Nov 25th: Hi: -2C in the morning falling to -8C by evening.
Turning windy and colder with snow.
A potent storm system emerging from the west coast will track across Montana and into the Dakotas bringing a widespread area of snow across southern Manitoba. Current indications are for 2-5 cm of snow for Winnipeg during the day. Increasing north winds and colder temperatures will likely produce areas of blowing and drifting snow especially in the afternoon and evening. 

Thursday Nov 26th: Clearing and colder: Hi -10C. 
Generally fair but cold. Temperatures dipping to -20C Thursday night.

Friday Nov 27th: Hi: -7C 
Nicer afternoon after a cold start to the day with temperatures at or below -20C.

Saturday Nov 28th:  Hi: -4C 
Milder with a chance of flurries. 

Sunday Nov 29th: Hi -5C 
Grey Cup day: Fair and seasonably cold.
At this early point, it looks like conditions should be fair and seasonably cold for the Grey Cup with average temperatures for late November and no precipitation expected. Models are not showing any major storm systems over the Grey Cup weekend, with a warming trend expected for the first week of December.  Things could change, but at this point, weather conditions look favourable for the Grey Cup game.


  1. Snow came in heavier than expected over Winnipeg this morning, as heavier band that was supposed to go through the Interlake slipped further south. A good 4-5 cm of light fluffy snow up to 1030 am in Charleswood, with snow continuing.. although radar shows back edge quickly approaching from the NW. Most of it should be done by 11 am or so. Turning milder this afternoon as winds shift into the west.

  2. Ended up with 5 cm of snow this morning, which melted to 2.4 mm water equivalent for a 20:1 snow:water ratio. Nice light fluffy snow which implied some embedded mid-level instability to get that fluffier type of snow. Looking at the radar loop, it does indeed look like some convective banding within that area of snow which led to those enhanced snowfall amounts this morning.

  3. Latest guidance bringing Wednesday's snow in a little earlier.. now looks like it will be coming through Winnipeg/RRV Tuesday night into Wed am. 2-5 cm still looks like a reasonable estimate, although latest runs hint amounts may be on the lower side for Winnipeg and south (2 cm or so).

    1. Looking like less snow for us tonight.. maybe a dusting to 1 cm with the cold front pushing through overnight into Wed morning. Bulk of snow tracking though the Interlake into NW Ontario.

      Also, it looks increasingly promising for good weather for the Grey Cup this weekend. Temperatures moderating to above normal values with highs near -2C both Saturday and Sunday. (current forecast high of -10C for Saturday is way too cold due to cold bias of GDPS model which drives long range forecast). In addition, game day looks dry with light winds. Game time temperature probably around -5C or so, dropping gradually through the evening, but light winds making it quite bearable. All in all, looking ideal for a football game in Winnipeg in late November.

  4. Nice weekend weather expected but does this need a weeklong special weather statement from EC? Why not save them for abnormal weather warnings.

    1. It's more of a public information statement to highlight the weather for a high profile event. Other than record temps or storm reports, EC doesn't have a public information type of product, so they have to issue a special weather statement instead.

      As far as the weather is concerned, it's looking more and more likely that conditions Sunday should be ideal for the game. Increasing confidence that there will no precipitation to worry about, temperatures will be above normal (normal high for late November is -5 to -6C) and wind speeds will be light (< 20 km/h) which is a critical parameter for outdoor events in subfreezing weather. Current outlook suggests southern Manitoba will be on the backside of a ridge of high pressure, with light southerly winds and temperatures of 0 to -5C at game time (kickoff at 5 pm). Temperatures will drop a few degrees during the game, but if wind speeds remain light, it shouldn't be too uncomfortable. All in all, pretty good for late November in Winnipeg. Keep in mind, if Winnipeg had hosted the Grey Cup last year (Nov 30th), the temperature at kick off would have been -21C with a 30 km/h wind producing wind chills of -35C. Yikes! They sure lucked out this year (again!) I say again, because the last 2 Grey Cups hosted by Winnipeg have been played under clear skies and above normal temps. Only the first Grey Cup payed here (in 1991) was cold (-16C at kick off)

    2. Hey Rob,

      WN calling for a lot of snow on Dec 11,12,13.

      Do you think there is potential for a storm at that time?

      I know it is a over a week a way.

      (Nothing else to really talk about weather wise lately).


    3. Long range models hinting at a possible Colorado low affecting southern MB over that time period.. but too early to say for sure at this point. Something to keep an eye on..