Thursday, January 01, 2015

A snowy start to 2015

24 hr snowfall estimates from WPC ensemble (inches)
to midday Saturday. Heaviest snow expected
mainly south of Winnipeg through Friday night
December finished with well below normal snowfall in Winnipeg with only 7.2 cm of snow recorded during the month (as observed by the Charleswood climate station)  This would rank as the 16th least snowy December in Winnipeg since records began in 1872.  Snowlovers have been anxious for some significant snow to fall across southern Manitoba as weather systems have been few and far between so far this winter season. But it looks like our first significant snowfall since late November is on its way across southern MB as a fairly intense clipper system tracks across southern SK into North Dakota Friday into Saturday. Snow from this system will spread across southwest MB Friday afternoon and into Winnipeg/RRV by Friday evening. Snow will be falling moderate to heavily Friday night with snowfall rates of 1-2 cm/hr at times before tapering off Saturday morning. At this point, it looks like the system will be bringing a wide swath of 10-20 cm of snow along and south of the TransCanada highway, with the heaviest amounts over southwest MB through the southern RRV into SE MB. For Winnipeg, it looks like we'll be seeing around 10 cm of snow Friday night with lesser amounts to the north of the city, and higher amounts to the south. In addition, northerly winds will be increasing overnight into Saturday morning giving areas of blowing and drifting snow especially outside the Perimeter and into the southern RRV. As a result, expect poor driving conditions Friday night into Saturday across the Red River valley into North Dakota and Minnesota. (NWS has posted winter storm watches and warnings for northern ND and northern MN due to this system)    

17 comments:

  1. Hi Rob,

    How much snow fell last night? Looks like more than expected.

    Forecast still calling for only 10 cm?

    thx.

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    1. I picked up 4 cm up to 7 am this morning.. with generally 4-5 cm across Winnipeg with this first wave which gave more snow than expected. Very light fluffy snow which melted to only 1.2 mm liquid. Next wave comes in later today through tonight with another 10 cm or so for Winnipeg by Saturday morning.. with 20 cm likely over SW MB and southern RRV. We'll see more snow in the first 3 days of January than we saw all of December!

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    2. Snowfall warning now issued for Winnipeg.

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  2. how much snow did yall get? how much is on the ground now?

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    1. mag.. It was tough to measure because of heavy drifting, but I estimated around 12 cm my my place. Full summary at.

      http://kamala.cod.edu/Canada/latest.awcn11.CWWG.html

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    2. I have about 17 cm on the ground now..

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  3. Still -30C at 12 noon, at the Winnipeg airport.

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  4. 1044 mb pressure reading at my site.. likely peaking around 1050 mb by 8 am as large 1055 mb high over southwest SK builds into western ND by 8 am Wednesday with a central pressure peaking at around 1060 mb. This will be the highest pressure reading at my site since a 1050 mb value on Nov 23 2013. Data back to 2001.

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    1. Pressure peaked at 1050.3 mb at my site this morning.. a new record high for my station. Barometer peaked at 1049 mb at YWG airport. My station barometer is likely 1 mb too high based on airport reading..

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  5. Strong NW winds developing tomorrow afternoon into tomorrow evening after a dusting of snow.. could cause some concerns with blowing snow in open country outside the city, especially over the western and southern RRV.

    Big blizzard over Kivalliq (north of Manitoba) with widespread near zero vsbys all day today likely persisting through Thursday into Friday for many locations as strong NW flow locks in for several days. Could see those blizzard conditions spread into Churchill Thursday as well.

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    1. Blizzard Warnings issued for North Dakota. With winds gusting to 70 km/h in the RRV, I'm sure we will have at the very least a Blowing snow warning!!

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    2. Yes, EC has issued blowing snow advisories for southern MB from SK border into the RRV for Thursday. Blowing snow advisories were already out for southern SK.

      As for Winnipeg, looks like we have 1-2 cm of snow possible by 8 am which would make for a slippery commute at these temperatures thanks to stop and go traffic. Winds start to pick up after the snow is through by mid morning, with gusts of 60-70 km/h possible by midday through the afternoon into the evening. That will cause blowing and drifting snow issues in open areas, more frequent outside the perimeter.

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  6. White knuckle driving on McGillivary and the west Perimeter this afternoon with ZERO visibility in frequent whiteouts with those 70 km/h gusts blowing the snow off the open fields in huge sheets across the highway. Worst conditions I've seen in a long while here..

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  7. peak gust seems to be 75 km/h at ywg airport observed at 4:11 pm. note that this reading it very unofficial because it was observed at 4:11 pm and for some reason dose not show up on the past 24 hour section on ec's sight.

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    1. instead the 4:00 pm reading does.

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    2. The "past 24 hrs" link only shows hourly weather data valid at that hour. It does not display intermediate observations between hours.

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    3. but the observation was on the regular page that normally only shows the hourly readings, and seemed to be takes instead of the 4:00 pm reading as i nerve saw the 4:00 pm reading on the regular site even though it was in the past 24 hour section.

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