Sunday, December 21, 2014

Staying mild until Christmas.. then pattern change to colder weather

Today may be the official start of winter, but the unseasonably mild weather of the past two weeks is forecast to continue for the the next few days with temperatures some 10-20C above normal for late December.  Highs today and Monday will be near or slightly above freezing with nighttime lows only around -2C, well above normal highs of -11C and lows of -22C for this time of year.  The weather will continue to be generally cloudy and dull with a chance of freezing drizzle or light flurries from time to time today into Monday. A storm system tracking into the Dakotas Monday into Tuesday will bring some light snow across the Red River valley and SE Manitoba, with a couple cm possible, especially south and east of Winnipeg. Cloudy and slight cooler conditions are expected behind this system for Wednesday into Thursday (Christmas Eve and Christmas Day) although temperatures will continue above normal, with highs near -5C. A storm system tracking though the Dakotas Thursday night into Boxing Day may bring a round of snow to southern Manitoba, but the main story with this system will be the colder air that will follow in its wake. Temperatures are expected to drop to normal or below normal values for Boxing Day and the weekend into next week, with temperatures in the minus 20s and possibly minus 30s again.

14 comments:

  1. Rob, are we going to see some sunshine before 2014 ends or the weather will remain cloudy this week leading to Christmas due to warm temperatures and possibly into the New Year's, even when the temperatures plunges by the end of this week, around the last weekend of this year?

    Nearly a decade ago, as we remembered during the holiday season at the end of 2005 and the beginning of 2006, we didn't have sunshine at all, as the weather was overcast that made depressed to most people, including myself. The sunshine last appeared on December 22nd 2005, during the morning hours before clouds rolled in the afternoon on that day and the clouds dominated most of the holiday season. The main culprit was warm temperatures. The sun didn't returned until January 6th 2006, during the last weekend of the holiday season before kids returned to school and everyone headed back to work on the 9th.

    Is the weather in Winnipeg going to be dominated with cloudy skies this holiday season, just like we had almost a decade ago?

    If I'm sick and tired of this warm, but depressing weather, I have to save up funds and go to nice and warm places down south like Southern California (SoCal) including Palm Springs, LA and San Diego, Las Vegas, Arizona, Florida, Hawaii, the Caribbean, Mexico or my home country on the other side of the planet with 7,107 islands, the Philippines, where I was on holidays for 3 weeks in April, while Winnipeg was enduring below normal temps and unpredictable late-season snowfall/flurries at that time. I came home before the last weekend of April and the snow was totally gone and rains dominated for the rest of the month.

    Rob, have a safe and wonderful time this holidays!

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  2. Incredible overnight warmth! Winnipeg broke a high minimum record for December 21 that had been on the books since 1877, the year Winnipeg recorded its warmest December. Five straight high minimum records in that year stood on the books from Dec. 21 to Dec. 25.

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  3. Anonymous.. Unfortunately, one of the drawbacks of mild weather here is that it often associated with cloudy dreary weather due to mild air over a melting snowpack. As long as it stays mild.. it will likely stay cloudy. Which appears to the case here through Christmas. But we will be getting considerably colder from Boxing Day onward, which will mean a better chance of seeing sunnier weather. So the good news is I don't think it will be staying this dreary through the entire holidays.. The bad news is it will also mean a return to much colder weather as well. Until then, you may want to try taking a daily dose of Vitamin D to get you through these bleak winter months (I find it helps..)

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  4. Merry Christmas and a Happy Holiday to you Rob and the rest of the awesome posters here. Between you and A Weather Moment your 2 sites are my go to when looking for the most accurate weather. Can't wait for thunderstorm season.

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    1. Thanks very much! All the best to you and all my followers this holiday season! Here's hoping for a happy and healthy new year filled with great weather!

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  5. Interesting to see that some of the solar powered stop sign warning lights were noticeably dim or non-functional on Saturday morning. Ditto for my solar driveway light which gave it's last gasp the previous evening.
    Hopefully today's sun will work wonders before the battery is damaged.

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  6. Speaking on behalf of all snowmobilers, any snow in the forecast?

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    1. Clipper system coming through southern MB Friday night into Saturday with a coule of models showing some decent snowfalls amounts, including 10-15 cm from the NAM and 20 cm from the GLB. But other models showing minimal amounts as well, so still a lot of uncertainty regarding snowfall totals. Right now, looks like a good bet for a clipper system bringing a general 5-10 cm worth to southern MB Friday night into Saturday as a first guess. We'll see what subsequent model runs have to say and how things develop upstream.

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  7. By the way, just got back from balmy Niagara today, after spending Christmas holidays there. No snow on the ground and the grass is still green in places.. looked like April! Got up to +12C on the 27th before "plunging" to -7C this morning, or what I like to call a "civilized" cold. Glad I missed out on the -20/-30C weather of the past few days here!

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  8. Rob do you see this 5-10 they are forecasting for Friday turning into anything significant?

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    1. Actually, 5-10 cm IS significant for us given the lack of snowfall we've seen this winter so far. We've only had 7 cm so far this December, with no daily snowfalls more than 2 cm this month, so a 5-10 cm snowfall would be considered significant. If you're wondering if this could turn into a 15+ cm event for Winnipeg, current ensemble guidance suggests about a 10% chance of that happening, with slightly better odds over SW MB and near the US border. The bulk of the snow is expected to fall between 7 pm Friday evening and 7 am Saturday morning, with snow falling at moderate to heavy rates at times during that period (1-2 cm/hour). Snow expected to taper off Saturday morning.

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    2. Models still on track for giving Winnipeg about 5-10 cm of snow with Friday's clipper system.. with heavier amounts of 10-20 cm possible over SW MB and along the US border. RDPS is fastest with the snow, bringing it in tomorrow afternoon while NAM is slowest bringing the snow in late Friday evening and tapering off by midday Saturday. Both models however agree with heaviest amounts falling mainly south of Winnipeg, with about 7-10 cm for the city.

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    3. Special weather statement, now in effect!!

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    4. Updated blog post coming up shortly!

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