Tuesday, July 01, 2014

June 2014: A "normal" month temperature wise.. but much wetter than usual..

June 2014 - Winnipeg Airport
Daily temperature graph and
anomaly from normal
June 2014 in Winnipeg finished with an average temperature of 17.0C, right on average for June based on the 30 year normal.  The statistic is a bit surprising given the frequent cool and rainy spells that occurred, especially in the latter half of the month. However, there were enough warm days and mild nights to boost the monthly average to "normal" values.

Rainfall was a different story. A total of 147.1 mm fell at YWG airport during June, some 57 mm (63%) above the 30 year June average of 90 mm. According to JJ's Winnipeg weather blog, this makes this June the wettest June in Winnipeg since 2000 (177 mm) and the city's 12th wettest June since records began in 1872. Totals were even higher in other parts of the city with 167 mm at my location in SW Winnipeg, and 170 mm at  the Forks downtown. It also didn't help matters that much of the rain fell over the last 3 weekends of the month, spoiling summer weekend plans for many. The rain however was even worse over western Manitoba which was deluged with record rainfall during June. In Brandon, their June rainfall total of 251.6 mm was the wettest month on record since records began in 1890. Previous wettest month was August 1980 at 217 mm. The bulk of the rain fell over the last two weeks of the month, leading to widespread overland flooding over southwest Manitoba. Rivers and lakes are at very high to record high levels across southern Manitoba, with flood warnings and high water advisories on many lakes and tributaries.  The abnormally wet conditions prompted the opening of the Red River floodway on July 1st to ease the risk of flooding in the city of Winnipeg.

So is there any hope of drier weather the rest of the summer?  Too hard to say. The next few days look promising with drier weather for the balance of the week. Increasing heat and humidity over the weekend will lead to a greater chance of showers and thunderstorms developing over southern Manitoba, but hopefully the activity will be more scattered and transitory compared to the past few episodes. Beyond that, there are no clear signals as to how the rest of the summer will shape up. Certainly there's a lot of moisture around which helps to fuel more shower and thunderstorm activity. But a favourable upper pattern can shut off the taps for long stretches as well. We're approaching the peak of summer now (mid July is our summer peak in terms of average temperature), and hopefully Mother Nature starts to take a much-needed summer break soon!

11 comments:

  1. The assinniboine river at brandon has risen A meter and a half since Friday morning but the amount of water discharging thru the gauge nearby has increased from 200m3 to 450 m3. or 16,000 Ft3 Both of those are recrds for the second of July

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    1. this is the gauge that illustrates it.
      http://www.wateroffice.ec.gc.ca/graph/graph_e.html?stn=05MH013&prm1=3&prm2=6&mode=graph&smo=6&sday=25&syr=2014&emo=7&eday=3&eyr=2014&y1min=&y1max=&max=1&y2min=&y2max=&max2=1

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  2. At wawanesa a similar increase to 300+m3/sec.or 8,000 cu.ft./sec. Brings fhe total to close to 25,000 cu.ft./sec potential tonight for tbe assinniboine.

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  3. From the province yesterday:

    An updated forecast for the Assiniboine River has been prepared based on the recent
    precipitation.
    o Brandon is forecasted to peak at approximately 34,000 cfs on or around July 11,
    2014, this translates into a water level of approximately 1182 ft, 2.5 feet below the
    top of Brandon’s permanent flood protection dikes.
    o Inflow to the Portage Reservoir is forecasted to peak at approximately 35,000 to
    40,000 cfs on approximately July 14, 2014. Operation scenarios for the Portage
    Diversion are being evaluated.

    The full link can be found here:
    http://www.gov.mb.ca/mit/floodinfo/floodoutlook/forecast_centre/daily_reports/2014/en/flood_report_july_1_2014.pdf

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    1. Today's Flood bulletin #6 has increased that at Brandon to 34- 37,000cf/s and at Portage LP to "The Assiniboine River at the Portage Reservoir is forecast to peak at 45,000 to 47,000 cf/s on approximately July 13.
      Many other lakes and Rivers are reported as well on my name or at

      http://news.gov.mb.ca/news/index.html?archive=&item=31612

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  4. An absolutely Beautiful Blue sky out there, bring on summer!!

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  5. Rob I'm surprised that Arthur is expected to remain significant into our maritime provinces. I thought the water would be too cold to take it that far north. can you explain?

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    1. Anonymous.. Hurricane Arthur, currently a catgeory 2 hurricane on the coast of North Carolina, will weaken as it heads north towards the Maritimes and cooler waters. However, it will also be speeding up as it encounters stronger winds aloft as it moves north.. which helps to maintain its momentum a little longer than if it was just sitting over cold water. As a result, it should remain fairly strong even into the Maritimes, possibly coming onshore as a Category 1 over Nova Scotia before transitioning to post tropical storm status. I'm not an expert on hurricanes, but the Canadian Hurricane Center provides good info on these tropical systems as they head into Canadian territory.

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  6. A warming trend the rest of the week as upper ridge over western Canada builds eastward this week. Looks like we have a chance of thunderstorms Friday as cold front pushes through with cooler weather for the weekend into next week as upper flow becomes NW over us and upper ridge rebuilds over BC, giving them an extended spell of very hot weather (35-40C temps) The current Winnipeg forecast of sunny 30C weather for Sunday and Monday is way too optimistic and doesn't reflect current model trends showing cooler pattern becoming established by early next week. Look for a downtrend in those forecasts in the days ahead. (Note that Day 6-7 forecasts come from an ensemble model which has a warm and dry bias for us.)

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    1. Forecast high for Sunday is now 23C, a drop of 7C from yesterday's 30C forecast. Likewise, those highs of 28C for Monday and Tuesday are likely 5-10C too warm.. again showing that warm bias with the Day 6-7 forecasts (last 2 days of the forecast)

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    2. Current model forecast highs for Monday for Winnipeg:
      GDPS: 17C
      GFS: 18C
      Euro: 14C
      Cool northerly flow with partly cloudy skies, possible showers. So that sunny 28C forecast for Monday is looking way too optimistic based on current guidance. Weather Network calling for a high of 18C Monday for us which seems more realistic.

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