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Snowfall forecast for Winnipeg from NAM model
showing 2 snow events this week
Tuesday afternoon (2 cm) and Wednesday night (10 cm)
(Image from SpotWx) |
After a nice 2 week stretch of dry weather with little or no snow over southern MB, the weather pattern will turn a little more unsettled this week as a couple of clipper systems cross the southern Prairies. The first system is expected to move across southern MB
Tuesday into Tuesday evening, bringing a general area of about 2-5 cm of snow, with the highest amounts expected though the Interlake regions. A second stronger clipper system is forecast to move across southern MB and North Dakota
later Wednesday into Thursday morning, bringing the potential for 5-10 cm of snow across southern MB along with increasing winds giving areas of blowing and drifting snow. These two systems will bring the first significant snowfall in southern MB since late January.. so be prepared for a return to more winterlike driving conditions this week after a welcome respite so far this month.
The good news is that long range models are pointing to a trend towards milder weather by early next week, with temperature climbing to the freezing mark and possibly even a few degrees on the plus side.
I'm so happy to hear of the potential warm up next week, even if it's close to the freezing mark. I don't know about you Rob, but this winter is starting to take a toll on me.
ReplyDeleteCurrent model guidance converging towards best snow chances in Winnipeg this week:
ReplyDeleteTuesday, between noon and 6 pm: 2-5 cm possible.
noon Wednesday to noon Thursday: 10 cm possible, bulk of it Wednesday night.
That's the way it stands right now.. we'll keep you posted on any changes with timing or snowfall amounts.
Hi Rob. It has been a very warm and dry winter over the deep southwest United States. Already in the short range the GFS and the Euro are showing some mighty warm air over the deep plain states.
ReplyDeleteDo you think if we can get a pattern change that it could lead to a very rapid transition into spring like warmth, as maybe pieces of that airmass could be drawn northward ?? Would be great to hear your thoughts!!
Anonymous.. Even if the pattern changed to allow milder air to spread across the Prairies, there's still a huge snowpack over us that would temper that warming.. plus the fact that our sun angle is just getting out of its winter minima. A lot of the sun's energy would be reflected by the snowpack instead of warming the air, which limits how warm we can get when there's snow on the ground. You need a minimal snowpack that can erode quickly, or a prolonged period of warm moist air with above freezing dewpoints along with some rainfall that can get that snowpack down. Once we get rid of our snowcover, then we'll be able to see some springlike temps more consistently. The earlier you can get rid of the snowpack, the quicker you can realize those warmer temperatures.
ReplyDeleteI know it's still early but has February been as cold or colder than December or January. Those normal highs of -9 are so far off right now
ReplyDeleteRob I note your OBS site and EC as they did for Dec and January, show a month to date Mean Feb temp of approx -20.0C or -4(below) F .
ReplyDeleteWhat is the reason this feels so much colder than other cold winters. (and yes I was here for 1950, 1966, 1979, 1996&97.)
Could it be we do not appreciate the gentle winter breeze? It certainly isn't selective memory loss. lol.
Is there a Windchill comparison with those other years?
Anonymous.. I don't have wind chill stats to compare to other winters, but I think the early start to mid winter cold this year and the lack of warm spells has made this winter seem longer and colder than many winters. I also think people have become used to our warmer winters of the past decade, so this one feels particularly hard, as opposed to if it happened 30 years ago when winters were colder on average. Finally, it could be just due to age.. I know winters get tougher for me to handle every year as I get older..
ReplyDeleteRobs, what's the latest on tomorrow night's storm? Still looking at a good 5 to 10 cm here in Winnipeg?
ReplyDeleteHeavier snow pushing into the city now from the west.. look for about 2-3 hours of snow along with poor vsbys in blowing snow. Snow will be tought to measure due to winds, but a couple cm likely by the time snow moves off by mid afternoon. Should be out by the drive home although roads will be slick.
ReplyDelete>> Anonymous said... Rob, what's the latest on tomorrow night's storm? Still looking at a good 5 to 10 cm here in Winnipeg?
ReplyDeleteYep, models have been pretty consistent on that. They've trended down slightly on amounts on the most recent runs but 5-10 cm still looks likely for Winnipeg between 6 pm Wednesday evening and 6 am Thursday morning. Thursday morning commute will be a bit of a mess..
Very poor visibility even in city limits as this heavy burst of snow moves through!! I can barely see 1 city block ahead!!
ReplyDeleteWell that was an extremely short lived warm up. The temp barely touched the forecast high for an hour before the winds shifted and temperatures plummeted!!
ReplyDeleteWell that was a far cry from the wonderful -8C day that the radio promised me just the other day!
ReplyDeleteAnd now... EC has completely removed any mention of snow for tomorrow. So much for that!
ReplyDeleteSnowfall warnings for areas out in Southwest Manitoba, like Brandon Manitoba!!
ReplyDeleteRob, do you think snowfall warnings will be issued for areas in and around Winnipeg for the afternoon update??? I see Winnipeg is in the 10 cm range!!
ReplyDelete>>Anonymous said...Rob, do you think snowfall warnings will be issued for areas in and around Winnipeg for the afternoon update??? I see Winnipeg is in the 10 cm range!!
ReplyDeleteYeah, quite likely snowfall warning will be expanded east to include RRV including Winnipeg. Ensemble guidance points to 10 cm for Winnipeg and latest radar trends support snow pushing further east into RRV tonight.
Looks like some impressive snowfall rates out in western Manitoba. Snow is going to pile up pretty quick overnight!!
ReplyDelete