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Temperature graph past 90 days
for Winnipeg. Mild weather
has been a rarity this winter |
It's been a beautiful start to the week across southern MB with sunshine and temperatures near the freezing mark making it feel almost springlike. In fact, Winnipeg airport hit +0.1C Tuesday, it's first day above freezing since January 15th. But alas, the mild respite will be short lived as yet another Alberta clipper tracks across the province tonight with a return to colder weather behind it. This next system is expected to spread snow into Winnipeg and the RRV this evening and continue overnight into Thursday. Snowfall amounts will range from 10 cm through the Riding Mtn Parks and Interlake regions to about 5 cm along the TransCanada corridor (including Winnipeg) and 2 cm or less near the US border. Northerly winds behind this system will tap colder air with temperatures remaining steady or falling through the day. This will usher in another spell of below normal temperatures that will likely persist through the end of February into early March. February is on pace to finish about 5-6C below normal, capping 3 straight months of well below normal temperatures. This will likely make the winter of 2013-14 the coldest in Winnipeg
in at least 35 years (since the winter of 1978-79).
RDPS has come back with 5-7 cm of snow for Winnipeg tonight into Thursday after completely backing off on amounts last night. This is more in line with other model guidance.. In fact, NAM now shows 11 cm for Winnipeg with about 6 cm tonight and another 5 cm Thursday. That may be on the high side, but nonethless, it's another solution to keep in mind (may be catching onto higher amounts on backside of system Thursday with "fluffier" snow).
ReplyDeleteOverall, I'm still thinking about 3-5 cm for Winnipeg tonight, followed another 3 cm Thursday.
it's looks like the colder temperatures have already returned. Not a warm day by any stretch. In fact temps have fallen by a couple of degrees from -11 to -13 in the last hour at YWG Airport.
ReplyDeleteHey Rob, have you seen the long range GFS with it's 1050 mb high coming down from the arctic?? Brutal!!
ReplyDeleteHey Rob any word on how long the radar will be down?
ReplyDeleteDaryl..
ReplyDeleteNot sure. I see there's a service ticket on the radar saying it will be down today for maintenance, but it doesn't say when it will be back online. If it's just maintenance, it should be back up by the end of the day, unless they found some more serious issues.
Daryl.. Woodlands radar back up as of 2:40 pm.
ReplyDeleteRob, I see WN has upped the amounts to 10 - 15 cm all the way into Thursday overnight!!
ReplyDeleteWhy is it that these snow storms always give lesser snow for winnipeg and south where as east, west and north always seem to get higher amounts. Every single system seems like that.
ReplyDeleteArctic front came through this morning and set up a strong temperature gradient along the int'l border (surprise!). -14 C at YWG, while Fargo is sitting at +4 C at this hour with a SE flow. With baroclinic zone further south, most 18Z models showing around 9-10 cm accumulation by tomorrow..
ReplyDeleteEC says snow beginning early this evening. If you look at radar it formed a horseshoe with winnipeg in the middle getting no snow at the moment.
ReplyDeleteRob will we see another brutally effective Polar Vortex with end of Feb drops to 10C to 20C BELOW NORMAL as suggested by Jeff M of WU in todays Blog.
ReplyDeleteOnly 2.6 cm of new snow at my place overnight.. really wasn't much of an event for us. Heavier snow concentrated north of Winnipeg through the Interlake regions with 10 cm likely though Gimli, and 16 cm reported at Arborg overnight. Still snowing up there. Little snow south of the city.
ReplyDeleteHey Rob
ReplyDeleteWhehn will the winds maximise today and when will they begin to settle down?
Looks like some snow is starting to spill in from the northeast. It really does feel like a January day out there.
ReplyDeleteDaryl.. Sorry for the late response. Winds have been gusty all day, and will remain so into this evening. Winds should settle down somewhat after sunset, but will likely pick up again tomorrow morning, although likely not quite as brisk as today. Still, with -15 to -20C temperatures, not feeling pleasant at all. Can't wait for this awful winter to end..
ReplyDeleteBy the way, you can look at the SpotWx forecasts to give you an idea of wind conditions (or other weather variables) Just click on "48HR" or "NAM" under the forecast graphic on my Rob's Obs webpage to give you Canadian and US model wind forecasts for Winnipeg on an hourly basis. Very handy charts..
Thanks for the info I checked out that spot WX I have to admit it confused me a bit because each different model appeared quit different but I guess that's why they are different models.
ReplyDeleteRob, your worst fears may be coming true. CPC has issued their forecast and shows a good chance that the spring will have below normal temperatures in the far northern plains.
ReplyDeleteYou warned us, that was the most likely scenario so it show not come as a big shock. It still does not make it any less painful :(
By this point in the winter, the cold doesn't even bother me anymore. I've become so used to it that I just expect it, don't complain about it, just accept it. It's all psychological, the more you think about it, the more depressed you become.
ReplyDelete>> Anonymous said... By this point in the winter, the cold doesn't even bother me anymore. I've become so used to it that I just expect it, don't complain about it, just accept it. It's all psychological, the more you think about it, the more depressed you become.
ReplyDeleteYeah, probably the best way to handle it.. just accept it and move on. At least the days are getting longer, and the sun is getting stronger. I just wish we could get back to a stretch of even "normal" temperatures.. which by now would feel positively balmy! Hang in there and stay warm!
Hi Rob,
ReplyDeleteOne of the morning presentations on TWN was about something called the CROSS POLAR FLOW and it is headed our way. Apparently this is Siberian arctic air and it it much colder than Canadian arctic air. Also looking at TNW's 14 day outlook on the television presentation, the night time lows are off the chart at -35 for March the 1st! Jeepers Creepers when are we gonna catch a break? .... in June say?
"Cross polar flow", "polar vortex", "Siberian Express" Essentially, they all refer to the same thing.. a lobe or piece of deep Arctic air originating from Siberia or the North Pole which remains intact as it spreads south into the mid latitudes bringing a spell of unseasonably cold temperatures across central and eastern North America. It tends to make the news when it digs into the United States bringing unusually frigid temperatures to the eastern and southern US where such frigid temperatures are rare. Looks like we have such an outbreak coming later next week into early March with -30c lows likely again.. (ughh) The last time Winnipeg had a low of -30c or lower in March was in 2008 (-32.1C on March 6) The last time we had more than one day below -30C in March was in 2003 when we recorded 6 days below -30C over the first 8 days of the month, including a record low of -37.4C on March 2nd. So this type of cold does happen at this time of year, but it's relatively infrequent, and never welcome as we anxiously await the arrival of spring.
ReplyDeleteRob This weather is quite balmy compared to 1966. February had multiple consecutive days of highs in or close to -30c with over night lows peaking at -45 in the last third of the month. My memory tells me that Peter Warren on CJOB kept calling it 50 Below (f). Warmup in early March was a bit windy. They found a few City Buses and trains under the snow drifts when it started to melt.
ReplyDeleteDo you expect something like that when this finally gives in to the predicted moderate to severe spring El Nino a la 1996 1997?
According to CBC, this winter has been the coldest on record Rob. Where the heck do they get their data from, leprechauns?
ReplyDeletehttp://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/manitoba/winnipeg-s-cold-snowy-winter-damages-city-s-snow-removal-equipment-1.2547874
It seems to be the nature of journalism now a days that weather events have be record breaking or else they aren't note worthy. I've recently heard a few people in the media talking about the "record snowfall" this winter.
ReplyDeleteWe've had lots of snow and it has been very cold this winter but neither are record breaking.
>> Anonymous said...According to CBC, this winter has been the coldest on record Rob. Where the heck do they get their data from, leprechauns?
ReplyDeleteNot sure where they got that from, but no, it's not the coldest winter on record here. As of yesterday, our winter average is at -20.0C, coldest since 1978-79 at -20.8C which is Winnipeg's 10th coldest winter on record (going back to 1872). We'll likely lose a few tenths of a degree on our winter average over the next week, but not enough to overtake 1978-79, unless we really bottom out over these last few days of February.
Note that the winter of 1978-79 *is* the coldest winter on record at YWG airport which started observations in 1938. However, if you include records from St Johns College (back to 1872), then there were 9 winters prior to 1938 that were colder than 1978-79. The coldest of them all was the winter of 1874-75 at -23.0C.
>>Anonymous said.. Do you expect something like that when this finally gives in to the predicted moderate to severe spring El Nino a la 1996 1997?
ReplyDeleteThere are hints of a an El Nino developing by this summer, but I don't think it would be early or strong enough to impact our spring.
Rob, this weekend has been so windy. Usually a cold front will pass through and the winds are strong for about 6 hours. This is the 3 straight day with strong winds...can you please tell me what is going on?? It is making for a most unpleasant weekend.
ReplyDelete"Rob, this weekend has been so windy. Usually a cold front will pass through and the winds are strong for about 6 hours. This is the 3 straight day with strong winds...can you please tell me what is going on?? It is making for a most unpleasant weekend."
ReplyDeleteThe persistent NW wind has and is still being caused by a low pressure system centered on James Bay. It has barely moved in 3 days but is showing signs of weakening. In a way, it has actually helped us avoid (or postpone) the brutally cold temps that await us to our west. Once this low has filled to the point it can no longer block the cold arctic air we will be inundated with it. And unfortunately the wind will likely continue due to the high pressure to our north west. If the center of the high moves over us we can expect the wind to subside.