Monday, October 01, 2012
One last warm blast Tuesday.. then turning sharply colder and unsettled Wednesday through the rest of the week..
It's going to be an interesting week of weather coming up over southern MB as a significant pattern change evolves by mid week. A intensifying low pressure system over southern Saskatchewan will track through central Manitoba Tuesday, bringing a strong southerly flow of warmer air over southern MB. Southerly winds will gust to 60 or 70 km/h over the Red River valley Tuesday including Winnipeg, which combined with the very dry conditions and low humidities will make for dangerous fire conditions. The gusty south winds will draw up warmer air with afternoon highs in the low to mid 20s.. some 10C above normal for this time of year. But that will be the end of 20C temperatures for awhile.. possibly the rest of the year. A sharp cold front will push through Wednesday morning with northerly winds bringing in much colder air into southern MB. Temperatures will struggle in the low teens Wednesday, falling into the single digits by evening along with a chance of some rain. Temperatures will remain in the single digits for highs Thursday into Thanksgiving weekend, with even a chance of some rain or wet snow over portions of the RRV Thursday into Friday morning. Enjoy the warm day Tuesday.. big changes are on the way this week!
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18Z NAM has an interesting outlook for Thursday across RRV and SE MB. They take an intensifying low over the Dakotas tracking into NW Ontario, with heavy precip on the NW flank of the low over RRV and SE MB. With the colder air in place, they show potential for a significant snowfall, or a mix of rain and wet snow on the order of 30 to 60 mm. (NAM showing a wildly exaggerated 57 cm snowfall total for Steinbach if precip was all snow) Now at this point, NAM seems to be an outlier with this solution as most other models track main area of precip just to the south and east of MB over northern MN into nrn Ontario.. but it bears watching.
ReplyDeleteGoing to have a lot more bare trees over the next few days with the strong southerly winds Tuesday, then colder temps by mid week.
ReplyDeleteA fire is visible on CBC's north Osborne cam. Shouldn't be long before any aerial shots are available to the public from Global's news chopper to see what's on fire.
ReplyDeleteWarehouse full of fuel is on fire according to Global.
ReplyDeleteI believe I can see some of the smoke all the way from St. James. Big fire indeed.
ReplyDeleteHearing that firefighters are going to let it burn for a bit and are getting out.
ReplyDeleteYikes.. That's one mean looking fire! Lucky the winds have died down this evening.
ReplyDeleteCan definitely see it now.
ReplyDeleteThe smoke plume is visible on the Woodlands radar.
ReplyDeleteHere's a loop of it I found: http://i.imgur.com/QGipe.gif
ReplyDeleteGlobal has a livestream of it, which can be found by clicking my name.
Some small hints of the plume could've been seen on visible satellite, but it's getting dark now.
ReplyDeleteCity officials telling people to keep all windows closed due to the toxic fumes.
ReplyDeleteUnfortunately at 9 pm winds turned ENE bringing some of those fumes into central Winnipeg. Winds will gradually shift to SE overnight before turning southerly by dawn. That would put the downtown and later the north end in the path of the smoke and fumes tonite.
ReplyDeleteHopefully the fire can be controlled before those 50-70 kmh winds kick which are progged for tomorrow
Daniel
NAM still going with potential snow event over RRV and SE MB Thursday with deep low tracking over Lake of the Woods, and strong winds, cold air and heavy precip on backside of storm over SE MB and RRV. NAM overdoing snowfall amounts by going with snow:water ratios of 11 to 14:1 for early season event.. which is way too generous, and would be more like a 7:1 event. Regardless, NAM indicating significant precip possible Thursday over RRV with 25-50 mm of cold rain or wet snow, which would be some much needed moisture for us. Oddly, 18Z GEM has very little over us as they take storm further east as does the GFS, while ensembles show a good 10-15 mm over us Thursday. So I'm thinking that GEM is an outlier here, and we'll likely see some precip Thursday, although NAM may be overdoing things. Question is.. how much and in what form? Note that HPC is indicating a 40% chance of seeing at least 10 cm of snow over far SE MB Thursday. From basking in warm sunshine to possible snow 2 days later. Ahh, October in the Prairies..
ReplyDeleteTo get more than 10 cm would truely be uprecedented at this time of year. Let's hope this wont be the start of 15 months of below normal! ;)
ReplyDeleteAlthough accumulating snow is unusual this early, it's not unprecedented. On Oct 2 1950, Winnipeg recorded 13 cm of wet snow, although much of it was melting on impact. Oct 7-8 1985 saw 14 cm of snow in Winnipeg, complete with below freezing temperatures and low visibility In snow and blowing snow. And a few years ago (Oct 6 2005), we had a massive early season snowstorm over SW Manitoba that saw 30-50 cm of snow over the Pilot mound area. So snowstorms can indeed occur this early in this part of the world, although they are still rare.
ReplyDeleteBig discrepancy still between faster and drier GEM and GFS, and slower and wetter NAM and Euro. We'll have to see if we get a trend towards one solution or the other, but given Euro's track record, I 'd be leaning towards the wetter solution over us for Thursday, especially over SE MB.
First time I've noticed the 100Lb BBQ move across the concrete deck . I believe those 84Km gusts at Whyte Ridge site are accurate. Also explains the waves on Red River this am
ReplyDeleteAre we looking at gusts in excess of 100kmh?
ReplyDeleteBlowing leaf alert! Leaves blowing all over the city, with blowing dust off construction sites. Winds are even stronger than I was expecting, gusting to 85 kmh at the airport! SCRIBE seems to have a low bias with southerly winds in the RRV, which are often 10-20 kmh higher due to funneling up the valley.
ReplyDeleteTrust that Louden Blaze South of Charleswood is completely out?
ReplyDeleteI drove by there an hour ago and I didn't notice any smoke.. but I could still smell it in the air. Hopefully it doesn't flare up again, as it wouldn't take much to get going in these winds. Hwy 59 has been closed near St Malo due to smoke from a fire in that area. Winnipeg traffic also reporting poor vsbys in blowing dust on Brookside. Luckily, we should be peaking with our strongest gusts as the low level jet moves off this afternoon, and pressure gradient relaxes. However, we'll still be gusting to 70 kmh or so into early-mid afternoon.
ReplyDeleteLarge grass fire off Wilkes nr Charleswood Rd. Crews on scene..
ReplyDeleteLoudon bush fire has flared up again... Lots of smoke over south Tuxedo area.
ReplyDeleteToday's guidance has become a little more consistent regarding Thursdays potential snow event. GEM has slowed down a little with precip further north and west, while NAM has become a little more progressive, taking main precip shield just to the east of RRV. Growing consensus that there will be rain spreading over southeast corner of province Thursday, possibly mixing with or changing to wet snow later Thursday through Thursday night, pulling off into NW Ontario Friday. Heaviest snowfall amounts, if any, would likely be towards Ontario border, especially into NW Ontario including Kenora and Red Lake where significant snowfalls of 10 cm or more are likely Thursday night into Friday, based on current model guidance.
ReplyDeleteSorry Rob, I should have said that the *25-35 cm* NAM was hinting at is unprecedented for Winnipeg during the first week of October. Yes, it has occurred in the higher elevations, but not down here.
ReplyDeleteI see the NAM has returned to the idea of a foot of snow in Winnipeg in this afternoon's update.
Correction on timing of snow event... Most likely Wed night into Thursday.
ReplyDeleteWow instead of a foot of snow I should have said two feet of snow. NAM showing 63 cm of the white stuff. This model must be in lala land; hopefully anyway.
ReplyDeleteYeah, NAM is getting a tad overexcited with the QPF on the backside of this system.. GEM seems more reasonable with amounts, and it has also backed precip into RRV/SE MB now showing about 5-10 mm rain for Winnipeg Wed night into Thursday, and 25 mm for SE corner, half of which may be falling as wet snow. Will be an interesting system to follow..
ReplyDeleteThe new 00z Wed NAM is precip crazy....it is a bit farther northwest still and wraps up the low in northeast South Dakota to near Fargo then to Baudette and gives 3-4 inch qpf Winnipeg to Devils Lake ...a lot of it snow. I am have seen it be ok with a more westward wrapped up storm before...its qpf is likely just a tad bit high though
ReplyDeleteYeah, the NAM brings a snowmageddon type scenario with winds gusting close to 90 km/h with all that snow.. Unreal
ReplyDeleteNote that a major upgrade of the operational REG GEM model from CMC will be implemented as of the 12z run tomorrow (Wednesday) morning. Resolution of the model will increase to 10 km (from 15 km) and initialization scheme will be improved. Click on my name for further details..
ReplyDeleteWill be interesting to see how the new changes handle the upcoming storm system Wed-Thursday.
Thanks Rob for the model update info. I passed this on to our office SOO (Science and Training Officer).
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