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60 hr GLB valid Tuesday morning
Oct 23rd with rain spreading into
southern MB |
Generally fair and seasonable weather is expected today and Monday, before another round of wet weather moves in Tuesday. After that, things will get progressively colder through the end of week into next weekend, with well below normal temperatures expected through the end of October. The colder weather will bring some snowflurries later this week, with some accumulating snow possible at times. For today, cloudy skies and scattered light showers this morning will give way to thinning clouds this afternoon, with afternoon highs near 10C accompanied by northwest winds of 20 km/h. Morning sunshine Monday will give way to increasing clouds ahead of the next system, which is expected to spread some rain over southern MB overnight Monday into Tuesday. At this point, it looks like about 10-20 mm of rain is possible for Winnipeg and the RRV, with higher amounts of 20-30 mm over southwest MB into the interlake regions.
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Yikes! 132 hr GLB valid Friday
Oct 26th shows potential snowstorm
over southern MB/NW Ont |
Rain will gradually pull off Wednesday followed by a northwest flow of colder air for Thursday into the weekend. This will be the coldest outbreak of the season so far, with high temperatures only near freezing or even below through the weekend into early next week, along with the possibility of accumulating snow. In fact, long range guidance is suggesting the potential of a significant snowstorm over portions of southern MB or NW Ontario by Friday. Stay tuned..
Well, in a complete reversal, latest GEM and Euro have now completely flipped to a possible snowstorm over southern MB for Friday, while the GFS is more progressive and develops the storm over Ontario. Sheesh.. wish these models would make up their minds! Needless to say, this system bears close attention and we'll have to see how models trend on this thing over the next few days. The fact that the Euro has now trended towards a possible storm now adds some credibility to that potential scenario.
ReplyDeleteHi Rob...I am working today and I agree. Not uncommon for GFS to loose storms in their mid range..then only to get it back. 00z Euro and GEM certainly nice for us down here in Grand Forks. There is a DGEX model (a downscaled GFS using NAM paramters that gives data from 84 to 192 hrs) that shows a very similar thing. It runs at 06z and 18z. It has snow area from Aberdeen to Fargo-Grand Forks then across far southeast Manitoba.
ReplyDeletehttp://raleighwx.americanwx.com/models/06zdgex.html
Thanks for the link Dan.. I think the consensus is growing towards a rapidly intensifying storm system over northern MN Thursday night into Friday, tracking into NW Ontario. The big question of course is how far west it will track, and western extent of heaviest snow. I agree that SE MB has greatest threat right now (along with you guys ) and we'll have to monitor trends for any westward drift. Keep us posted with any insight!
ReplyDeleteOf course as soon as I write the 12z GEM comes in with a flat wave and weak low well east. 12z GFS was a bit stormier but fairly weak with low nr Duluth and not as cold. Euro not in yet so will see....So much energy coming in off the pacific around the base of a broad trough models having a hard time.
ReplyDeleteHi Rob,
ReplyDelete2 Questions....
With all this precip this month and more to come this week, could this be an indication of a possible wetter than normal pattern this winter or is this just more of a temporary wetter pattern right now?
With that snowstorm Friday, are we here in Winnipeg likely to get clipped with this storm or will it mainly stay southeast of here?
A wetter than normal October is not necessarily a sign of a prolonged wet/snowy pattern through the winter. I think this is just a temporary pattern right now, with no clear signal yet as to what type of winter we're going to get.
ReplyDeleteAs for Friday's storm, still a lot of uncertainty and too early to say whether Winnipeg will get clipped. As Dan mentioned above, models are having a lot of difficulty trying to resolve timing and strength of waves/energy coming in off Pacific this week, and how they evolve downstream over the central US. My gut feeling is that this storm's main impact will be mainly southeast of Winnipeg, but too close to discount this far out.
Update...12z Euro just arrived at work at not too different from 00z run in it having a bit stronger low that develops as it moves from southwest into northeast Minnesota and then into Ontario. Not quite as strong as 00z run but its output gives a model snow accum of 3-6 inches from Grand Forks and Fargo to Warroad then to Kenora brushing far southeast Manitoba. It specifially would give Winnipeg 1-2.
ReplyDeleteAs Rob says its not unusual for models to have issues yet in these systems from a western trough so can be changes for sure.
In regards to wetter October and any trends in the future... I agree with Rob that in the past a wetter October doesnt mean a wetter Nov or wetter Winter necessarily. Trends can be established in terms of long wave positions that can give a clue to future patterns for the winter in some years. Last year was a good example of a long wave pattern that set up and never much went away, except for a few instances.
ReplyDeleteThat said, I have read many new outlooks now and with the El-Nino very weak and likely to go neutral this winter...the talk of a warm and dry winter which started has turned to ideas of a more "normal" winter (whatever that means)...The trends have been toward a bit colder than normal winter perhaps from accu weather long range updates and other sites...with precip up in the air.
(I'm guessing (and hoping!) that that 999 cm snow depth measurement in Calgary yesterday is another error. Hopefully not one that stays in the system lol)
ReplyDeleteEC now says sunny all week (except tuesday). Initially it was calling for rain on the weekend. Is the potential storm completely going to miss us?
ReplyDeletethanks
Yes, concensus is growing that the storm system will intensify well to our east over NW Ontario Thursday night, with main impact generally over NW Ontario. We will still get a cold northwest flow behind the system with perhaps some snow flurries Friday, and local lake effect snow bands, but at this point, looks like the chances of a widespread accumulating snow over southern MB are diminishing.
ReplyDeleteYes...afraid not much will happen as system remains rather flat and progressive until in develops more in Ontario. Looks like a decent snow event for southern Alberta into central Saskatchewan though tonight into Tuesday.
ReplyDeleteModels fairly consistent on amount of rain over Winnipeg for Tuesday.. GEM is showing 19 mm, NAM 16 mm, EURO 15 mm, and NAEFS ensemble giving 11 mm. So a good 10-20 mm likely on tap for us, starting overnight and tapering off Tuesday night.
ReplyDeleteNAM's even bringing in some embedded thunderstorm activity tomorrow as we tap in some instability from the south. Is this actually a possibility?
ReplyDeleteA thunderstorm not out of the question for tomorrow, especially to the south and east of Winnipeg where there's better moisture and forcing with the 850 mb warm front. If not a thunderstorm, some locally heavier showers possible.
ReplyDeleteAnything winnipeg could get, even if its a small storm?
ReplyDeleteThanks Rob
ReplyDeleteI see rain/snow are back on for Friday and Saturday. So much for a sunny weekend.
ReplyDeleteIf you don't like the forecast, just wait 5 minutes and it will change ;)
ReplyDeleteSome pretty good downpours here over the past half hour.. I'm up to 8 mm of rain now for the day. Decent echo tops (over 30K feet) with lightning noted over northern MN and far SE MB asoctd with upper warm front..
ReplyDeleteRob, will winnipeg get a thunderstorm at all this evening within some of the rainbands?
ReplyDeleteLooks like most of the tstm action missed us to the southeast, affecting extreme SE MB into Lake of the Woods area. 14 mm total rain at my place, with heavier amounts of 25 mm over western RRV into Interlake.
ReplyDeleteHi Rob,
ReplyDeleteIs that system later this week still looking like a miss for us here in Winnipeg and Southern Manitoba?
Yes.. Storm will be intensifying well into northern Ontario. Northeast MB and NW Ontario will be impacted, but southern MB will escape with only cold northwest winds and a few flurries, and perhaps some locally heavier bands of lake effect snow off the MB lakes.
ReplyDeleteGetting quite foggy out there
ReplyDeleteGoing to be a crazy end of week in Ontario...
ReplyDeleteSnowstorm in Western Ontario on Friday while Southern and Eastern Ontario bake in 20C+ heat with humidexes! That's fall for you!
Looks like we broke a daily rainfall record yesterday Rob, am I right?
ReplyDeleteYes, looks like it. YWG recorded 12.5 mm of rain yesterday. Previous rainfall record for Oct 23rd was 7.6 mm in 1954 (same month as Hazel) However, Winnipeg recorded 12.7 cm of snow on Oct 23rd 1873.. (start of a 20 cm dump from Oct 23-25th)
ReplyDeleteMonthly precip total now up to 56 mm at YWG airport, well above the Oct norm of 36 mm. Forks has 70 mm, while I'm over 80. Much needed after our dry September.
Rob I was wondering if we might see another pre halloween Blizzard similar to one in the early 70's this weekend. Snow storm meant walking with parents over 1 meter snow drifts on Halloween in the west end of St James
ReplyDeleteI would say the odds of a pre-Halloween blizzard are pretty low for us at this point. We should be in a bit of a dry pattern as the remnants of Sandy transition into a major east coast storm that will likely be impacting eastern NA early next week. That should effectively delay any major storms from hitting us during that time..
ReplyDeleteWill be watching that east coast storm with great interest.. some models indicating a historic type event hitting the mid Atlantic by next Tuesday.
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ReplyDelete