The warmer weather will help prevent, or at least delay, August from becoming our first month in over a year that has averaged below normal. The last month that averaged below normal in Winnipeg was May 2011 (June 2011 was almost exactly normal). Since then, Winnipeg has gone 13 straight months above normal resulting in the warmest 12 month period on record in the city since records began in 1872 (12 month mean of +6.0C between Aug 2011-Jul 2012) Over that time we have set some impressive milestones including..
July 2011 ... driest July on record (10.0 mm)
Aug 2011 ... hottest day since 1995 (37.2C on Aug 23rd)
Oct 2011 ... hottest October day on record (31.1C on Oct 5th)
Dec 2011 ... rare brown Christmas over southern RRV
Jan 2012 ... 3rd warmest January on record
Feb 2012 ... 4th warmest winter on record
Mar 2012 ... Warmest March on record
Jul 2012 ... 5th hottest July on record
Aug 2011 - Jul 2012 Warmest 12 month period on record (+6.0C)
|Winnipeg annual temperature anomalies 1872-2012|
Not surprisingly, 2012 is also on pace to be one of Winnipeg's warmest years on record. As of the end of July 2012, the year to date average in Winnipeg was +4.0C, tied with 1987 as the warmest annual average through the end of July. 1987 is Winnipeg's warmest calendar year on record at 5.4C. The normal annual average over the 20th century in Winnipeg has been +2.5C. This graph, courtesy of A Weather Moment, nicely displays the annual averages for Winnipeg since 1872 in terms of temperature anomalies from normal. The chart clearly shows how 2012 (dark red) is on pace to be one of the city's warmest years on record (the top 5 years being 1987, 1931, 1878, 1998 and most recently 2006) barring any shifts to significantly colder weather between now and December. However, with Arctic sea ice approaching a record minimum, and an El Nino likely in place for this winter, the odds of significantly colder weather in the next few months appear to be slim at this point.