Tuesday, August 21, 2012

30C weather returns to southern Manitoba..

Summertime weather will be hanging on this week as an upper ridge gradually pushes across the Prairies. Temperatures climbed into the 30s south and west of Winnipeg Tuesday (including 33.5C in Emerson), while Winnipeg hit a of high of 29.2C. Winnipeg has yet to hit 30C this month after hitting the mark 14 times in July.. however it looks like the city will be seeing 30C temperatures Wednesday into Friday as the warm air continues to spread north and east. Conditions will be generally sunny and hot, however there is a chance of some showers or thunderstorms Thursday evening as a weak upper impulse moves across southern Manitoba. A more significant cold front is expected to cross southern Manitoba Friday night bringing in cooler conditions for the weekend.  

30C days in Winnipeg (annual total)

2012 ......  21  (updated Aug 31)  
2011 ......  24
2010 ......  11
2009 ......    4
2008 ......    5
2007 ......  13
2006 ......  24

Normal .... 13  
Record high ... 34  (1961)

64 comments:

  1. 2009 was a depressing summer, especially after 2008. I remember our air conditioner only ran maybe twice all summer.

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  2. Nothing beats the non-summer of 2004. That's the only summer that I actually had to put the furnace on in August. lol

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  3. Any Other Summers Where we had to have our furnace on? Counting the years before 2000.

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  4. Today's high of 31 C is not likely.. warm front has has set up just to our south with a backed, ESE flow over Winnipeg. Lots of altocumulus castellanus (ACC)around, and some virga/ light showers over SE Manitoba. More widespread cloud moving in this afternoon. Even GEMReg now only gives only 28 C this afternoon.

    Daniel

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  5. So much for the idea of not reaching 30C, airport's now at 29.6C

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  6. We'll see which model wins out on this one now...GemReg is already out

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  7. High of 31 C - not 30 C - I said to be unlikely. Still only 28 C at the forks, 28 C at Portage, 23 C Gimli. Most of the the > 30 C temps are in the southern RRV and SW Manitoba. I was expecting more back building of altocumulus and stratus before the arrival of higher cloud from the west. Since YWG is so close already, no big surprise if they reach the high, but will be closer for other spots.

    Daniel

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  8. The NAM and RAP are still at 34-35 C for a high, consistent with previous model runs.

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  9. let's face it NAM and RAP are way off the mark, no way will it be 34 or 35 here in Winnipeg today

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  10. NAM etc give our high very late in the day at 6 PM, as winds finally turn more southerly and warm front nudges past us under that scenario. We'll just have to see where exactly the warm front and SSW flow set up by early evening.. tricky forecast.

    Daniel

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  11. Winnipeg's daytime high is a tricky one today. The NAM and the RAP correctly advect drier air northwards through the day. This is quite visible already, with dewpoints near 17C in areas in a SE flow such as Winnipeg, and dewpoints near 10C in any areas with a southerly flow (as close as Carman and Morris). The drier air will reach a higher temperature given equal heating, but thus far it seems like there's more cloud in areas with southerly winds.

    Winnipeg has already hit 32C with dewpoints near 17. If dewpoints managed to drop and we were still able to get an hour or two of sun, a high of 34 might not be impossible. Personally, I feel pretty safe saying a high of 32 for today, but...well you never know. We'll see how that dry air moves and how that balances out with cloud cover.

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  12. Warm front thru the airport.. 32 C with dewpoint crashing to 13 C in better mixed southerly flow. Forks not updating yet.

    Daniel

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  13. Temps peaked at 33°C at the Winnipeg Airport. Hot spot looks to be Treherne right now at 34°C.

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  14. Well, 32C in Winnipeg. Could that be a bad reading given the updating issues yesterday and the dewpoints issues it had a couple of weeks ago...it for some reason just doesn't feel like 32?

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  15. On second thought, it is quite hot outside...just weird how the temps we're climbing slowly through the day and all of the sudden a 7C rise from lunch time to now

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  16. Well.. today had just about everything to make for a crazy temperature forecast: A departing area of elevated convection and virga, an approaching area of high cloud from the west, and a warm front bubbling up from the SW crossing us at peak heating!

    Still only in the mid to high twenties across the southern interlake with an easterly flow, with temps of 32-34 C in the warm sector. Those high clouds moving in should likely cap us from reaching 34/35 C as mentioned.

    Overall, NAM outperformed RGEM again with the placement of the warm front, although RGEM this time was too far south (earlier this season it had been consistently too far north).

    Daniel

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  17. Anyone have thoughts on tomorrow's thunderstorm Potential, here and in North Dakota? I'm heading to Grand Forks until Saturday, I hope I will get something while I'm there.

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  18. Hi Mike

    I am with NWS GF... doesnt look like much precip chance with this system Thursday....more so to our east but GFS has been overdoing it. A bit better chance later Fri night with an actual cold front.

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  19. 30C stats updated on blog. 16th day of 30C or more this year for YWG, with another couple more possible Thursday and Friday. Note that we've also had 11 days with a high of between 29-30C.

    Count me as another one who was surprised by today's 33C high in Winnipeg. I was thinking 30-31C today, and thought NAM's 33C was out to lunch. As noted, warm front pushed a little further north than expected, and we benefitted from a push of drier air to our south. Note that a year ago tomorrow we hit our hottest temperature of the summer.. a record 37C with a southwest flow of very dry air (850 temps were 25C in that event)

    NAM gives YWG a high of 33C again Thursday as 850 temps rise to 20C again on a southerly flow. Looks like we should be seeing some sunshine in the afternoon as mid levels dry out, so 30C again not out of the question. Convective chances look slim as upper trof looks pretty weak, but some isolated convection may develop late afternoon/evening ahead of the surface trof. Looks like another 30C day Friday before things cool off for the weekend.

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  20. Unfortunately, the warmer weather seems to have brought a new invasion of mosquitoes.. worst I've seen it this summer, at least in Charleswood. What a way to ruin a nice evening!

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  21. Interesting you mention that Rob. I had completely forgot about mosquitoes until you said that lol! Not a single one of the buggers from what I have seen in St Vital today. Unless if I was just at the wrong spots.. or 'good' spots I suppose.

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  22. I think Rob was at the wrong place. Nothing in St. Boniface.

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  23. FYI..

    Garth has recently added RAP output on his SpotWx site. RAP is a rapid refresh model from the US that updates hourly out to 18 hours. 13 km resolution (similar to NAM) Some nice convective output available. I've added a link to Winnipeg's RAP output under my main forecast icon, beside the other SpotWx graphical output. As always, you can get SpotWx output for any site by just clicking on the SpotWx link in the top corner of the graphical output.

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  24. Cypress River was the warmest spot in Canada today at 34.5C.

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  25. Shaw servers are down... Rob's Obs and any members.shaw.ca links unavailable UFN.

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  26. Looks like we're back in business.. Shaw issues fixed. Rob's Obs back online.

    Morning clouds will give way to sunshine today, so we should be able to pop up towards the 30C mark again before a chance of a thundershower later today.

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  27. Sun beginning to break out in St. James.

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  28. Looks like another 31-32°C afternoon. Decent shot at getting some storms late this afternoon, too. The SPC-WRF blows things up over the RRV while some models keep things to our east. My gut feeling is that things will initiate further west than the GEM-REG is indicating.

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  29. IMO another blown public forecast by EC. 70% chance of showers? With 3 hours to go for today's afternoon, it's looking more and more unlikey.

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  30. Up to 32.0C at the airport. Looks like GEM-REG is chronically underforeasting daytime highs.

    @Anon:

    The forecast is for a 70% chance of showers or thunderstorms "late this afternoon". On a technicality, late this afternoon and early this evening covers the same time period. Often, when "late this afternoon" is mentioned, you shouldn't expect anything before 5.

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  31. If we hit 32°C tomorrow, this will officially be a heat wave. We'll see.

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  32. I see absolutely no reason we wouldn't see similar temperatures to the past two days. Nothing is changing (other than 850mb temps warming up slightly).

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  33. Some cells firing up to the east of the city and have warnings on them. Wouldn't be surprising to see a watch soon. One out for the Kenora area already.

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  34. Those storms clouds to the south and southeast are interesting to watch. You can see them grow, their growing so fast.

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  35. Now have a timelapse of it going.

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  36. And the minute I start the timelapse, a watch is out. Doesn't include the city though.

    SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH FOR:
    =NEW= STEINBACH - ST. ADOLPHE - DOMINION CITY - VITA - RICHER
    =NEW= DUGALD - BEAUSEJOUR - GRAND BEACH
    =NEW= BISSETT - NOPIMING PROVINCIAL PARK - PINE FALLS
    =NEW= WHITESHELL - LAC DU BONNET - PINAWA
    =NEW= SPRAGUE - NORTHWEST ANGLE PROVINCIAL FOREST.

    SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE TONIGHT.

    THIS IS AN ALERT TO THE POTENTIAL DEVELOPMENT OF SEVERE
    THUNDERSTORMS WITH LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS.

    MONITOR WEATHER CONDITIONS..LISTEN FOR UPDATED STATEMENTS.
    IF THREATENING WEATHER APPROACHES TAKE IMMEDIATE SAFETY
    PRECAUTIONS.

    IF YOU WOULD LIKE TO REPORT SEVERE WEATHER, YOU CAN CALL
    1-800-239-0484. PLEASE NOTE, THIS PHONE NUMBER IS ONLY FOR
    REPORTING SEVERE WEATHER.

    ==DISCUSSION==
    SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS HAVE DEVELOPED IN SOUTHEASTERN MANITOBA AHEAD
    OF A WARM FRONT NEAR THE AMERICAN AND ONTARIO BORDERS. SOME OF THESE
    THUNDERSTORMS MAY BECOME SEVERE. VERY HEAVY RAIN IS THE MAIN CONCERN
    AS THESE THUNDERSTORMS ARE MOVING SLOWLY AND ADDITIONAL CELLS WILL
    REDEVELOP ALONG THE FRONT. LARGE HAIL MAY ALSO BE POSSIBLE WITH THE
    LARGEST THUNDERSTORMS.

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  37. Feels like one of those hopeless days today for storms in the city.

    And temperature has just fallen to 28°C in St Vital with the outflow from the storms to the east.

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  38. Yeah, that outflow band shows up real good on the Woodlands radar. It's going through the western edge of downtown, should see it by the west Perimeter in about half an hour.

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  39. Just getting the outflow here in the west end just before 6 pm.. winds gusting to 50 km/h at the airport. Temperature still 30C here but down to 27C in the east end.

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  40. I don't even need to look on radar or outside to tell the boundary has passed, the air got noticeably cooler inside a building!

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  41. Looks like it sped up a bit, now it's hitting the west Perimeter.

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  42. Could take several hours for this cloud to clear unfortunately.

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  43. Cloud cover over southern MB this morning associated with some nocturnal convection over ND overnight, with activity spreading east and weakening this morning. This will delay our heating somewhat today, but we should be seeing some sunshine this afternoon as cloud cover thins out. 30C temps still possible given 18-20C temps at 850 mb abd southerly flow today.

    Attention then focuses on cold front pushing through southern MB this evening and tonight. Strong dynamics moving in over southeast SK and SW MB by evening ahead of an intensifying upper low over central AB moving into central SK this evening. Moisture field is pretty decent ahead of front with dewpoints in the mid teens, and if we can get some good heating this afternoon with some sunshine, we could be looking at SBCAPEs of 1500-2000 J/kg.. enough to support some severe storms given favourable wind fields. Main threat will be damaging wind gusts as well as large hail with storms becoming linear as the evening progresses. EC has sligth risk of severe mentioned for srn MB and SPC has a slight risk of severe over much of ND for today up to the Cdn border. Line of storms will likely track into Winnipeg/RRV by mid to late evening, possibly still strong given support from low level jet. Timing will be an issue for the Bombers game tonight.. hopefully any storms that do fire up will hold off until game is over.

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  44. The heat wave has made it to Ontario/Quebec...

    Grimsby, Ontario (Niagara) is already at 30.2C at 12:14PM.

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  45. Wow... Random Environment Canada stations all across the country are shutting down once again today (no data updates). ''Rolling station blackouts''?

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  46. What was today's official high?

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  47. @Anonymous:

    Looks like it was 32.0C today. That makes it officially a heat wave in Winnipeg!

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  48. Storms firing up southwest of Winnipeg moving towards us. Hopefully we get a decent storm within the hour...

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  49. Please dont split

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  50. I'm about to get a huge storm in Grand forks! Looks like I brought the storms with me. Good luck on the Canadian side guys!

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  51. Hopefully we get more with the actual cold front, because this incoming broken line not looking too impressive. Not seeing much lightning to my southwest.

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  52. Mike should be dealing with a great lightning display.

    Had a good show here in Altona about half an hour ago. Wind gusted up to 60 or 70 km/h. Lots of CC lightning and a bit of heavy rain. Maybe some more on the way from the SW in the next hour or two.

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  53. Agreed It's Awesome! Its the best I have ever seen here....

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  54. Some okay lightning and a bit of rain but otherwise, activity is wimping out here in the city. Better storms tto our south.

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  55. Some gusty winds and a couple minute torrential downpour in St. Vital is about it. Got a quick 2.5 mm here with that. Hope we get some more to truely satisfy..

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  56. What a suprise that our first official heat wave of the year was at the end of August.

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  57. I had quite the storm in Grand Forks last night, frequent lightning, strong winds, hail, and heavy rain. The severe weather knocked out power to the hotel I am at, didn't come back on until around 1am. What did you guys get?

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  58. We had a 30 sec downpour.

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  59. ECMWF is bringing some very hot air to southern Manitoba Tuesday and Wednesday. Will be interesting to see how hot it will get.

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  60. Are EC and TWN forecasts underestimating temperatures mid-week? They seem to be the only forecasts that don't show a blast of heat (and I don't consider 27-30°C a blast of heat).

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  61. For Dan from NWS GF,

    Heading down to Minneapolis next weekend, I realize it may be a bit early but how is the forecast shaping up for Friday through Monday?

    Thanks

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  62. NAM's now backing up the ECMWF with a predicted high of 36°C Wednesday.

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  63. Strange, isn't ECMWF the only model NOT Forecasting a Cat 2.or 3 Isaac will be centered on New Orleans Wednesday on the 7th anniversary of another KAT..rina
    Will that impact our warm day.

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  64. Re: Wednesday heat

    Agree that GEM's high of 30C for Winnipeg Wednesday is a bit conservative given that GLBGEM is showing 22-24C 850 temps over the RRV with a good southerly flow. That would likely translate to temps of 32-36C given straight sunshine and low dewpoints.. but we'll have to see if those 850 temperature values do indeed occur.

    As for Isaac.. yes, ECMWF appears to be an outlier given the ensemble forecasts showing landfall near New Orleans. Storm then curves northeast into the Tennessee or Ohio Valleys so it won't have any impact on us here.

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