Monday, July 16, 2012

A comfortable start to the week before heat builds again by mid to late week..

A storm system which brought significant rain across southern Manitoba Sunday will be tracking eastward today leaving mainly cloudy skies in its wake. Temperatures will be slightly below normal with highs in the low 20s, a refreshing break for the heat of the past few weeks. Skies are expected to clear for Tuesday with seasonable temperatures around 26C, before the heat and humidity return Wednesday into the weekend with temperatures climbing over the 30C mark once again. Generally dry weather is expected through the end of the week, although scattered thunderstorms will be possible at times with the building heat and humidity.

86 comments:

  1. Heaviest rainfall past 24 hours mainly through the Interlake into western MB highland areas. 81 mm reported at Ethelbert, NW of Dauphin, with 40 mm in Arborg and 37 mm at Teulon. Generally 5-15 mm across the RRV, including 7.5mm at YWG airport, and 12 mm at my place. Not the real soaking we needed for Winnipeg area, but better than nothing.

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  2. Eastern MB also got dumped on. From Bissett down to the northern Whiteshell received 40 - 95 mm of rain.

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  3. Grand total of 11mm here in St. Bonifice from yesterday's rainfall. Better than nothing, but really just enough to force me to have to cut the grass in a couple days.

    Simply having a nice cloudy day so my yard/garden isn't getting baked and allowing the water to work it's way in is very nice.

    Looks like it's going to be cookin' by the end of the week. Golfing on Friday and it might be near-unbearable with humidex values in the low-to-mid 40s!

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  4. Thanks Garth... Where was the 95 mm recorded?

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  5. The 95 mm was at Knob Hill South. It's between Bissett and the Whiteshell.
    Map: http://www.gov.mb.ca/conservation/fire/station-location-map.html

    Green Lake (in the Whiteshell) also had a wind gust of 100 km/h between midnight and 1 am, with 28 mm of rain in that 1 hour.

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  6. Garth is there anyway to get the forestry weather info in real time?

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  7. The links to 'live' text files have been provided to EC staff (Dale M. should have the email). Otherwise, no. Though plans are to make a new public product with live hourly weather this winter.

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  8. Thanks for the info Garth.

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  9. Everyone must remember the great storm of July 16, 2007. It was a monster with wind, hail, heavy rain.

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  10. Do you mean in 1996 with that massive hailstorm, or 2005 with those 100+km/h wind gusts? Both were july 16 in those years. Don't think anything like that happened on july 16, 2007 though. Either way, it gets depressing when you have to look back 7+ years to talk about a good storm around here.

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  11. An interesting post by Jeff Masters about the increasing drought in the US. As of June, this year ranks as the 6th most widespread drought in the US since records began in 1895, even greater than 1988 (although 1988 was worse over the northern Plains). Only the drought years in the 1930s and mid 50s had more widespread drought conditions. And it appears that this year's drought will only get worse based on current patterns. Click on my name for more details.

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  12. Rob do you think the drough in the US has anything to do with the drier conditions we've been experiencing?

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  13. Thursday has the potential to be very hot for southern Manitoba. Here's my thoughts.

    Under the NAM scenario, winds would vear to a more westerly direction in the afternoon, favouring the RRV with a downslope effect. This would be along with 850 mb temperatures in the low to mid twenties. Therefore, highs around 35, 36°C are certainly possible. NAM is even showing temps near 40 closer to the US Border.

    Only thing that would limit temperatures a bit is humidity, with dewpoints expected near 20. We would need dewpoints to drop with that westerly wind to see temperatures rise higher than the mid thirties.

    That's how I see it so far, it could change.

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  14. Rob, a question for you. Is there anything preventing media companies (like CTV, CBC, Global, etc.) from building their own radar? Right now, almost everyone with the exception of Global claims the radar is live, but as any enthusiast/hobbyist would know, it's just streaming data.

    Seeing one of them actually going ahead with such things would be interesting to compare with EC's network.

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  15. Connor.. I'm sure it's a question of money, and how much such an investment will come back to a media outlet in terms of viewers and sponsors. If it was worh it, I'm sure they'd do it. But in Canada, I don't think many do (I believe CTV in Toronto has their own radar, but that's in the biggest media market in Canada) I know a lot of US media outlets have their own radar, but again, it's more as a competetive edge where the market is large, or where severe weather is a major threat (like tornado alley)

    At the end of the day, most of the radars from media outlets can't compare to the quality of NEXRAD and EC's network, so it's better to stream good quality radar than rely on lower quality stuff.

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  16. Anonymous.. Agree with your assessment for Thursday. Definitely looking like YWG could hit 35C that day, as long as we can get that westerly breeze developing and tap some lower dewpoints. For what it's worth, NAM is indicating 35C for Winnipeg Thursday, while GEM says 33C. Reagrdless, looks like another 40+ humidex day on tap.

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  17. Anonymous.. I'm not sure the US drought is really afecting us here in southern MB that much. Yes, Winnipeg and the eastern RRV has been dry, but much of the rest of southern MB has had sufficient rains this growing season to put us in pretty good shape crop wise. In fact, a farmer buddy of mine in Sanford says this is shaping up to be one of his best crop years ever. It's been even wetter in southern SK where storms have been more frequent. The upper ridge and drought-inducing subsidence has been mainly south of the US border, while we've been generally on the edge of the upper ridge with a stronger jet stream to initiate storms over the southern Prairies. That could change if the ridge continues to build northward the rest of the summer, and our low level moisture starts to dry up.

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  18. Any chance of rain today? Radar shows
    rain to the west of Winnipeg.

    thanks

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  19. Then how come (and this may be impossible to answer) Winnipeg and the eastern RRV have been in some sorta isolated drought but the rest of the region seem to be getting the rains? We’ve seen this happen in the past many times where Winnipeg is constantly missed but the surrounding area isn’t and others have mentioned a bubble effect around the city due to our location away from topographical triggers to the north (lakes), south (?), east (Canadian shield) and west (escarpment). Is there really that much of an actual meteorological bubble effect around the city to deflect that much rain or is it just bad meteorological luck somehow? Or do people call it a bubble effect just as a make fun of term at our evasive storm season? It seems that if it were really a bubble effect, our average annual precipitation over the last 30 years would reflect something much lower than the surrounding Southern Manitoba, in which case it doesn't since our annual average is similar to that of most of Southern Manitoba. Plus I've never heard of an area as small as a city to have a vastly different climate then the rest of the surrounding area, other than the effects of an urban heat island, which don't make it that different.

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  20. Area of rain to the west is moving pretty much northward.. not expecting any rain in Winnipeg today.

    Good setup for severe thunderstorms later this afternoon into this evening across east central SK into western MB, generally along and north of the Yellowhead Hwy. Deep low levl moisture, good shear, veering profile, clearing skies and an approaching trough/warm front will provide ideal conditions for severe storm development in that area, with tornadic supercells a distinct possibility. Will likely be seeing a tornado watch posted for that area this afternoon. Stay tuned.

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  21. Mentioned this on twitter but the 4km WRF is showing two possible rounds of showers/thunderstorms moving through the RRV this evening and into the overnight hours. Simulated reflectivity from the 4km WRF usually does a reasonable job with events so this is worth watching and keeping in mind.

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  22. Hey Rob, What is our thunderstorm potential looking like for tomorrow afternoon? Spotwx GFS is showing CAPE Values in excess of 4000 J/kg over some southern portions of the province along with some kind of front going through at 7pm. As well the thunderstorm threat was talked about in the FGF Discussion, they said that areas along the northern valley and devils lake basin had some threat of thunderstorms. What do you think?

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  23. Another 3 tornadoes confirmed in Saskatchewan today, and there may have been even more (not confirmed yet). Over 20 tornadoes have touched down in the province so far this year. Wow, weather sure changes quickly when it gets to Manitoba. No confirmed tornadoes here yet this year.

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  24. Mike.. Yes, we'll have plenty of CAPE today thanks to those low 20 dewpoints and temperatures in the 30s this afternoon. However, there's a lot of warm air aloft as well, which will likely cap any severe tstorm development over us later today, even with that trof coming across. Perhaps further north through the Interlake the cap will be weak enough for some stuff to fire up later today, but the chances decrease as you head south into the stronger cap. HRRR model actually shows some convective activity over southern SK this morning spreading into southern MB today, so we'll have to keep an eye on that area to see if it survives, or weakens as it heads east this morning. The evolution of that area of convection may weaken the cap over us and give us a better chance of some storms.. but it's a tough call to say for sure at this point.

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  25. SPC's already got a Day 7 severe risk for next Wednesday for northwestern Ontario. Hopefully Manitoba will get into some of that action that day or the day before.

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  26. Anonymous,

    They mention ND and nrn MN having a substantial risk of severe storms on Tuesday/Tuesday night. Chance that could extend into southern Manitoba.

    When's the last time SPC issued a Day 7 or Day 8 outlook?

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  27. O awesome, I hadn't seen that part Derek.

    And the last time they issued Day 7/8 was last month, for that June 9th event.

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  28. I'm having trouble figuring out Day 1 never mind day 7!

    Difficult convective outlook today into tonight for southern MB with varying forces at play to either trigger convection, or kill it. As mentioned, lots of energy to work with today over southern MB with widespread dewpoints surging into the low 20s, and surface temps at or above 30C creating CAPES of 3000+ or better. Weak trof extending from Arborg area of Interlake into SW MB may provide a focus for thunderstorm initiation, and in fact a severe tstm watch is being hoisted for this area as some intense cells have popped up west of Brandon already. Problem is building cap with 700 mb temps warming into the 10-12C range this afternoon which will likely keep a lid on things especially south. SPC carrying a SLGT risk of severe storms today over ND to the MB border, and "Tornado hunter" Greg Johnson will even be chasing today over southern MB hoping to build on yesterday's successful tornado day over eastern SK. Given the ample energy today, the atmosphere is certainly primed for some explosive storms.. but again, some forces at play that don't make it as classic a situation as it was yesterday in SK.

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  29. That area of cloud associated with the convection may keep our temperatures a little lower this afternoon depending on how early it gets here.

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  30. Some elevated convection will pass just to the south of the city. With lots of debris clouds in its wake, may be difficult to heat out sufficiently before surface trough comes thru..

    Re anonymous, drought

    You could think of the current drought conditions as a northern extension or outlier of the larger pattern. Note the expanding drought conditions in N Dakota and NW Minnesota. The southern RRV and far northern N Dakota has seen a few more elevated storms giving them near normal moisture conditions.

    re 'bubble'

    We do not have long duration records and high density of recording stations for many regions of the SW and SE part of the province. Second it may be a more recent trend, with the effect more apparent in certain years (like this one, when dynamics are lacking). Regions downwind of urban zones usually have increased precipitation due to increased aerosol concentration.

    Daniel

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  31. Weak thunderstorm west of Starbuck heading towards Sanford/La Salle area.. perhaps clipping south end of Winnipeg..

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  32. Daniel when you say increased aerosol concentrations do you mean they act as a trigger for storms to develope downwind of a urban zone? I wouldn't have guessed that Winnipeg was a large enough city to produce that many aerosols enough to produce something as big as a thunderstorm. A city like Toronto on the otherhand would make more sense.

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  33. I've never heard the term debris cloud used this many times before. It seems to be what keeps preventing us from getting storms. Something note worthy for our weather patterns this year.

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  34. Gloomy times.

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  35. I suspect Winnipeg is large enough, but I don't know of any quantitative data. And again, we do not have enough recording stations or long enough records east of the city to observe precipitation effects.

    I believe that sometimes, all the concrete infrastructure of the downtown core, can trigger lift versus the featureless plain around the city. I have noticed a few times where cells blow up right over the downtown area..

    Daniel

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  36. Ah yes...the dreaded thunderstorms blowing up over the downtown core. The West Edmonton storm some years ago was I believe an example of this...the bane of severe weather forecasters everywhere! I've seen it enough that I agree with Daniel...

    Dan

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  37. I'm looking at the 1971-2000 precipitation averages on EC for a few stations in southern Manitoba, amounts in mm

    Steinback- 539.4
    Altona-540.5
    Morris- 541
    Gimli- 532.5
    Niverville- 489.8
    Plum coulee- 533.6
    Selkirk- 510.4
    Stony Mountain- 510.4
    Starbuck- 558.1
    Stonewall- 519.6
    Winnipeg- 513.7

    So according to EC's climate averages in that 30 year timeframe, you can see how surrounding towns aren't that much different in annual precip from Winnipeg. I'm not convinced that what we get as far as weather is concerned has something to do with our location or the fact that we're a city. I'm more convinced that its just bad luck in the recent trend, especially when you don't have to go very far this year for the weather to be vastly different. Only in the vinicity of large mountains or other larger topographical features would a sharp contrast in climate exist, in which a lot of southern manitoba, despite some differences in topography, is fairly uniform.

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  38. Except that the data you present - a lot of which is based on volunteer stations (Rob could better address some of the quality control aspects of such data) - actually supports what I am saying. Assuming the averages you calculated are correct, stations in the southern RRV and Gimli are higher than those for the northern valley by 30 mm in some cases. I don't have time or feel like running a statistical analysis, but it may well be significant at 0.1 (90%) or 0.05 (95%) confidence interval. The only exception is Starbuck which does not fit pattern - again could be an issue of quality control with the data.

    Further, you did not look at any sites from SW Manitoba (especially the turtle mtn region or in the Pembina hills/ escarpment), SE Manitoba, or perform analysis of any possible trends in the data that might be revealing.

    Daniel

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  39. I was only interested in stations within 100 km or so from Winnipeg. I was just wanting to compare stations that were relatively close by to the city, since it does change when you go out further, for example averages get into the 600mm range in SE Manitoba. I guess it could be statistically significant but from a personal perspective, a 30mm difference doesn't seem that much (100+ would make more a difference). Not enough to say we're supposed to be that much different than everyone else anyways.

    The quality is probably questionable. I find it hard to believe Niverville gets below 500mm on average when everyone else not far away has 50mm higher averages, like Steinbach being only some 25km away! Very subjective analysis I know and its only a rough estimate to prove a personal observation but it does still show that a lot of places within 100km of the city have similar amounts whether it be + or - 30mm what difference does it really make?

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  40. Severe thunderstorm watch extended for all of RRV and SE MB, including Winnipeg. Storms over northern ND, with additional storms firing up over western ND along surface trof. Looks like cap isn't doing much to suppress convection, or storms are more elevated.. not sure. Either way, potential for storms through this evening across RRV, although I'm still not convinced we'll see anything here in the city.

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  41. A 30 mm difference, especially when it is fairly consistent between northern and southern sites shouldn't be ignored. You can't always go by what 'seems' significant, a statical test provides confirmation for a hypothesis. Maybe a good project for somebody.

    The reason stations outside the RRV are important, is because it is those areas which have significantly different terrain than here. The effect seems to be in the northern RRV, not just the city.

    Daniel

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  42. Yeah, looks like its going to be tough to overcome cap again. That elevated stuff and clouds prevented us from really heating out. Line of cumulus just west of Portage with something trying to form off the SW shore of L Manitoba. We'll have to watch that as mean flow would take it to Winnipeg.

    Daniel

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  43. Well that area around Portage is dissipating. More cloud development over SW Manitoba, but that would likely miss us.

    Daniel

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  44. I can't remember another series of years (2011-2012) this bad for storms before. It'll be nice to get out of this no-hope pattern.

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  45. Not likely to happen because there always seems to be something that gets in the way of explosive storms here...for as long as we have the usual strong cap we ain't gonna get the storms and that's bottom line

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  46. Is it possible that cap Still could break tonight?

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  47. 2012 is not the year for storms and it's pretty clear that isn't gonna change at least this year..pretty bold forecast from EC don't you think, issuing severe weather watches considering the cap is so strong.....strong capping almost never breaks here in southern mb for whatever reason that may be who knows

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  48. Mike, isn't hasn't yet in 2012 chances are tonight's another bust

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  49. I am getting pretty frustrated with the scenarios we have been having, maybe when we have a day with no CAP at all we'll get storms.

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  50. I agree...it's just so strange with all this heat and humidity we've had this summer we simply just are not getting storms...there are storms firing northeast of minot towards the border but not sure if they will cross the border and even survive if they do

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  51. 25 C dewpoint in Winnipeg and 26 C at Portage.. sticky to say the least. Can already see cirrus off that cell well to our NW.. that's probably the closest we'll get to a storm tonite. A few stronger cells just south of the border near Killarney that might graze extreme southern RRV.

    Daniel

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  52. Well We might have some luck, Wunderground is forecasting a thunderstorm moving through Winnipeg at midnight tonight. As well as at 4am. The POP for the storms are 60%. We'll see.

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  53. Certainly wouldn't get optimistic, as optimism will only bring another let down. :P

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  54. On closer look, those Killarney cells look elevated, lots of altocumulus castellanus around as well. Appears to be associated with a very weak LLJ of 20 kts that will be around until around 1 am. Therefore, still a small chance of something forming before LLJ shifts east.

    Daniel

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  55. The cell is now warned.

    No, Woodlands isn't running hot: the KMVX and the KMBX radars are showing dBZ values close to 60 too.

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  56. Line has develop and is building back towards Portage.. chances getting better that Winnipeg will see something in the next hour or two.

    Daniel

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  57. Looks at radar
    *faints*

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  58. Cells building to SW of Winnipeg.. lightning becoming more frequent to my southwest horizon. Here's hoping storms build right into the city!

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  59. If winnipeg see's a cell in the next hour or so what will be the risks? are we talking strightline winds or possible tornados?

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  60. Torrential rain, hail would be the main risks, but not tornadoes because the storms are elevated.

    Daniel

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  61. Certainly could be a miss to the city if something doesnt form on the north side of the line. It may just skim the south Perimeter.

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  62. Nice outflow boundary from storms pushing into the city from the southwest.. gust of 50-60 km/h possible. CWB mesonet was showing gusts of 60-80 km/h over southern RRV from storms earlier.

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  63. Outflow boundary about to sweep thru the city from the SW, cutting the heat and humidity somewhat. As noted, the southern part of the city has the best chance of seeing something.

    Daniel

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  64. Nice shelf cloud to my southwest.. likely along outflow boundary..

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  65. You beat me to it Rob lol

    Daniel

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  66. Storms now forming on the north side of the storm. Winnipeg may not miss after all.

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  67. Getting some outflow gusts now in Charleswood.. nothing strong, maybe 30-40 km/h. Humidity seems to be dropping.. lots of lightning to my southwest.

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  68. Just getting that wind now in south end too Rob. Just a moderate wind as well, nothing strong.

    Is anyone seeing any cloud-to-ground strikes yet? I do not have a good view in the distance at my place due to lots of trees.

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  69. Still mainly cloud to cloud lightning, but it's getting closer, even overhead at times with thunder. Currently gusting to 26 knots (50 km/h) at YWG airport according to live RVR. Elm Creek swamped with 26 mm of rain with storms to our southwest so far.

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  70. Frequent in cloud and cloud to cloud lightning to my southwest.. Great view from my second floor window.

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  71. LOL, Rob's station is reporting drifting SNOW!

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  72. Is it just me? or are the cells starting to weaken on rader around and south of the city of winnipeg.. the ones riding the border look like they have completly fizzled out!

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  73. Connor..

    That's from all the hail I'm getting here!!! :). Just kidding, that's a coding error based on the latest METAR from YWG airport which is mistaking the "DS" in "LTNG ALL QUADS" for drifting snow. Doesn't it make you feel cooler though? :)

    Still getting lots of lightning here, but storm seems to be falling apart.. Few spits of rain but otherwise, not much. Hopefully we can still get a good downpour as this line moves through... but overall, looks like another disappointment..

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  74. just drove around the north perimeter from route 90 to main st. heavy rain, and wind... no hail. Actually had to slow to 60ish at a few points to keep it inbetween the lines!

    Quite a few ground strikes that looked to be out towards Birds Hill or North Transcona areas.

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  75. I think the Perimeter shield is striking again with the cell off to the west of us...D:

    Also seeing a good lightning show in St. James. Only one rumble of thunder though.

    Wunderground was right with storms at midnight tonight, Mike.

    Also, a cell blew up right over downtown about an hour ago as Daniel pointed out. Coincidence much?

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  76. Cells starting to train a bit from Rosser down thru Transcona.. so far the rest of the city has seen little precipitation. Hopefully main line slumps a bit south, if not we'll have to hope that trailing cell just passing Ely holds together and affects the city.

    Dadniel

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  77. still heavy rain here in Rivergrove area. Glad I didn't bother watering the tomatoes this evening!

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  78. Drops hitting my window from the Elie/Headingley cell.

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  79. Seeing less lightning to the west now, and lots more in the southeast. May be a bad sign.
    Only got brief sprinkle here (south end), so some of us may actually miss out in all of this.

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  80. Ended up with 17.2 mm in NE Transcona last night. Best storm of the year by far (which isn't saying much!). Frequent lightning, small hail and heavy rain. Winds were pretty calm throughout the entirety of the storm.

    Chris

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  81. I'd say it was pretty decent at my place in St,James had lots of lightning that certaonly makes up for the missed action. Not a lot of rain though, maybe a mm at most. Here is hoping for more!

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  82. This comment has been removed by the author.

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  83. Hi Rob,
    know you're busy .... I note EC took the CB threat out of Sunday AM's public forecast. We're doing a movie shoot outdoors in the Westwood area between 7AM to 9AM. Can we forecast zero P.O.P. for tomorrow AM? Chris in Westwood.

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  84. Hey Guys, I am going to Victoria Beach next week from the 22nd to the 27th and I am wondering if there will be a good potential for thunderstorms over that time frame. I noticed a System will be moving through on Sunday as well as on Wednesday. Any Chance I'll be affected? Let me know,thx...

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  85. Chris..

    Sorry for the delay in getting back to you.. enjoying the nice weather too much!

    I see EC has put the thunderstorm risk back in the forecast for overnight into Sunday morning, as a weak system tracks through the Interlake. Currently, there's a 30% chance of storms which seems reasonable, as the best focus should be north of us through the Interlake.. but we I think we have a slight chance of seeing something in Winnipeg between 4 and 8 am.

    Mike.. As mentioned, a chance of some nocturnal storms overnight into Sunday morning. A slightly stronger storm system forecast in the Wed-Thu timeframe with showers and thunderstorms through southern MB.. but still too early to be more precise on timing and location.

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