Thursday, July 12, 2012

Locally heavy thunderstorms today.. staying hot and muggy into the weekend..

Locally heavy thunderstorms have developed over southern Manitoba this morning as a weak disturbance tracks through North Dakota. Any thunderstorms today will have the potential to produce very heavy rain due to elevated humidity levels and slow storm motion. The scattered nature of these storms will mean some localities will see heavy rain, while others will see little. As an example, Oak Bluff recorded up to 30 mm of rain in this morning's thunderstorm activity, while just down the road in Charleswood, there was barely a drop!  This thunderstorm activity will likely persist through the morning over the Red River valley, with additional storms possible this afternoon into this evening, again with locally heavy rain, as well as the potential for hail and strong winds.  A return to sunnier and hot weather is expected Friday into the weekend before another chance of thunderstorms early next week.

112 comments:

  1. Some impressive rain totals in that band to our west. 54 mm of rain past hour in Treherne.. 42 mm north of Elm Creek.

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  2. For those that have noticed Minot 88D being down (KMBX) they are doing the dual pol upgrade this week. Bismarck is next in line.

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  3. Thanks Dan.. we noticed that. We use NWS radars a lot to monitor storms near the border. Very helpful to have a secondary source of radar, especially if ours go down or are having calibration issues.

    Have you noticed any improvements with the dual pol upgrade, especially in terms of radar precip estimates?

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  4. rob, what was the high we hit yesterday with the humidex?

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  5. Some surface based cells popping in the clear skies to our south. With clouds hanging on and a light, variable flow, looks unlikely that enough instability will get as far north as the city to support significant convection (mesoanalysis shows SBCAPE of only 250-500 J/Kg right now). Cells that form over the southern RRV will be capable of producing localized heavy rain as the they remain near stationary beneath the upper low.

    Upper low and associated showers should slowly pull off to the east this evening and overnite.

    Daniel

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  6. I guess we'll just have to hope some storms drift into our area this evening. This cloud, which of course 'would' stick over the northern RRV, doesn't want to budge much.

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  7. Anonymous.. peak humidex in Winnipeg yesterday was 42.

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  8. Thunderstorms popping up across southern MB mainly from east of the south basin of LAke Winnipeg through the southern Interlake into SW Manitoba. Storms have been generally pulsy with heavy rain and small hail, but generally staying below severe limits.

    Secondary area of storms developing over NE ND associated with yet another upper circulation. In between, Winnipeg and much of RRV missing out on much of the action this afternoon. Upper low over SW MB gradually tracks across RRV tonight, hopefully supporting some storms over RRV.. although bulk of activity should be easing with loss of daytime heating.

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  9. just curious why is it that EC is forecasting 60% chance of thunderstorms in the RRV when there is nothing in the region, do you think a lot more will develop?

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  10. Things still awfully unstable Mike.. look at latest satellite image. Winnipeg completely surrounded by cells to the north, west, south and east! We still have chance of seeing something drift in this evening.. so I think it's prudent to maintain a 60% chance of thunderstorms until things settle down.

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  11. Looks like another bust forecast for Winnipeg....looking at the latest radar and everything seems to be going west south north and east like a circle around Winnipeg with nothing in the middle. Most of the storms are pulse storms anyway with virtually little threat of them becoming severe, thus i would expected EC to end the watch within the next couple of hours..with all the cloud cover today the chance of severe weather really diminished.

    Rob, do you think there's still a chance of storms possibly severe here in the city tonight?

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  12. There's a small cluster of storms north moving south towards winnipeg..if they could just stay together and not weaken we could get some much needed rain here... my lawn looks like a fricken desert!

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  13. Severe threat is diminishing for Winnipeg with onset of evening. Still a threat of storms pushing in here this evening from the north. Gimli had 24 mm of rain past hour with that cell to our north.

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  14. Nice shelf cloud formation pushing into the city from the northern cell. Doppler radar indicating about 50 knots aloft. Haven't seen winds that strong surface however be aware that we could be seeing some strong gusts from the north within the hour.. possibly 60 -70 km/h.

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  15. Give us a good soaking and light show. That's better than nothing.

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  16. "Cannon to right of them,
    Cannon to left of them,
    Cannon in front of them
    Volley'd and thunder'd"

    We're surrounded. lol

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  17. I am in East St. Paul. nice wind gusts from the NW just blowing through.

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  18. Had a couple of strong wind gusts at my place in St,James, I'd say a max of 60 km/h. Nothing Significant, now for the rain and thunder....

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  19. Gust front coming thru but returns on radar weakening and becoming less organized.

    Daniel

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  20. Well, once again thunderstorms eluding Winnipeg...this is just like 2011..very puzzling that the severe thunderstorm watch is still in effect..should have never been issued to begin with at least for winnipeg..we don't even get momor thundersorms here, we certainly ain't gonna get severe weather

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  21. Wind picking up pretty good in EK. Be nice for it to hit us with some rain.

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  22. That cell just collapsed as soon as it touched the Perimeter.

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  23. One thing's for sure if you like thunderstorms and good light shows don't choose Winnipeg as your destination, you'll be very disappointed...

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  24. of course that's cell collpased, they all do when they reach winnipeg...mind boggling to say the least

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  25. Lol at this rate it's dissipating so fast that we may not even get a single drop if it continues the way it is right now.

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  26. TAF AMD CYWG 130125Z 1301/1324 33012G22KT P6SM FEW030 BKN100 PROB40 1301/1302 VRB20G30KT 4SM TSRA BKN030CB FM130200 28005KT P6SM -SHRA SCT030 BKN080 TEMPO 1302/1307 VRB20G30KT 2SM +TSRAGR BKN015 BKN030CB FM130700 32008KT P6SM SCT040 BKN080 PROB30 1307/1310 VRB20G30KT 4SM TSRA BKN015 BKN030 FM131000 28007KT P6SM FEW020 BKN060 FM132000 35005KT P6SM SCT050 PROB30 1320/1324 VRB15G25KT 5SM TSRA BKN050CB RMK NXT FCST BY 130600Z=

    Why Is it that NAV Canada is expecting a thunderstorm with hail in Winnipeg on the TAF from 02 to 7 UTC?

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  27. I thin it's about time we all start talking and forecasting phenomenons we do get not the ones we don't and thunderstorms is not one of them

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  28. Now I got the ''can't touch this'' song in my head. lol

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  29. The TAF & the pub forecast are produced by two different desks at EC maybe not even in the same office. Other than paying EC for the product, Nav Canada has zip to do with the composition of the TAF.

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  30. I think we have a curse for not not being able to get thunderstorms, might have been the drought last year that caused this....

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  31. This was Ec's forecast for tonight this morning THUNDERSTORMS. Just what are they looking at anyway..the forecasting has been poor when it comes to thunderstorms and in think it's about time we stop forecasting storms at least for winnipeg with bust after bust after bust it's pretty clear it's just not in cards in 2012.

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  32. Does anyone have a thunderstorm zapper in there backyard that there not telling us about? Might be why we have been missing these storms....LOL

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  33. -Continue to keep shields up, number one! Maintain red alert!
    -Done Captain, and fazers on standby, set to stun!

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  34. EC wake up i think it's about time the bogus severe storm watch gets drop don't you think...

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  35. Mike, good point..who knows maybe the Peg is cursed when it comes to storms...lol

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  36. Or is it me and my stress levels?

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  37. could be, perhaps...lol

    I bet you we'll get hammered when we least expect it...isn't that how it works sometimes

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  38. I agree with you 100% that's how it worked last year. Remember that Fateful August 18th man was that awesome!

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  39. Strengthening radar returns north of Winnipeg a little bit maybe a few rumbles of thunder?

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  40. That asking for too much from mother nature Mike... :P

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  41. yeah that was awesome

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  42. I don't think it was anything to do with Winnipeg, the satellite imagery showed a southerly flow of cloudcover working against the CB cutting it off from going into the region. If there was a northerly push all the way through we would of had the storm. We will have our turn, it just wasn't our day today.

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  43. I am right so far, the main area of rain is retrograding back north. Weird how things are working tonight. Almost feels like we need a straight flow of wind to get the storms moving towards us in the same direction. Not all over the place, like today.

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  44. I see EC has finally woken up and ended the watch but they still are forecasting 60% chance of thunderstorms...unreal

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  45. If I were them I'd forecast cloudy skies, how old are the forecasters that are at EC?

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  46. This is Winnipeg. Should we really be that surprised of the outcome tonight?

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  47. There were thundershowers to the north, west, south and east. Some near the perimeter.

    And people are complaining about a botched forecast!? Perhaps you need to work at the forecast desk for a summer.

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  48. Yeah, some of the comments people were making on here yesterday were a joke. As Garth said, there were storms on all sides of Winnipeg. The forecast was bang on. Watch was fully warranted. People need to realize that forecasting thunderstorms is difficult even on the best of days, when a well-defined trigger is present. On pulse days like yesterday, forecasting is extremely difficult. Imagine forecasting where the first bubble will appear in a boiling pot of water...it would be next to impossible! Give your heads a shake folks! The forecasters at EC are great at what they do!

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  49. The forecast was pretty reasonable yesterday in my eyes as well. As mentioned, some pretty decent cells surrounding the city last night.

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  50. A small area around the Riding Mtns may see thunderstorm potential today as weak upper impulse moves towards the area and taps some decent instability with SBCAPEs of 2000 j/kg or higher. Local upslope flow over terrain may also aid in promoting lift. Otherwise, hot and humid across southern MB with not much in the way of triggers to promote thunderstorm growth, unlike yesterday.

    Speaking of which, as Chris and other have noted, thunderstorm watch for Winnipeg and area was fully justified yesterday. Any storms in that environment yesterday had flooding potential, and if one drifted over the city (and some came awfully close at times), I don't think anyone would have been second guessing a thunderstorm watch for the city. The scattered nature of the storms and widespread area of lift made it impossible to pinpoint a smaller area to focus on. So a large scale watch area was the best way to handle that type of situation.

    Remember, a watch means the POTENTIAL is there for severe thunderstorms. It doesn't mean you WILL get a severe thunderstorm. It's a heads up. And given the activity yesterday, I think a watch was certainly warranted for Winnipeg.

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  51. By the way, after getting 60 mm of rain yesterday morning, Treherne picked up another 25 mm in a thunderstorm last evening between 9-10 pm. Total of 85 mm there yesterday. Other nearby totals yesterday included 27 mm in Gimli, 30 mm in Oak Bluff, 27 mm in Morris, 13 mm in Stonewall and 13 mm in Sanford. Officially, nothing at YWG airport.

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  52. Did get a nice lightning show to the west and south late yesterday evening from a couple of cells. The one directly to the south of Altona was a small shower that passed overhead and brought light rain. It then strengthened into a storm just south of the International border.

    Environment Canada at no fault yesterday. Weird set-up with a couple of circulations setting off convection. Had their been more shear, the event would have likely been more widespread.

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  53. Strong storms have formed between Portage and Brandon. Will be interesting to see how long they last.

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  54. Re yesterday..

    The trick with yesterday was an area of stable air right under the centre of the upper low.. where debris clouds sat most of the day. As the low spun and moved east, that stable band oriented itself more SW to NE with convection swirling around in all directions. The highest risk areas in my view were the southern RRV and SE Manitoba given the rotation from that upper low and highest instability, a secondary risk existed for convection forming on lake breeze boundaries to the north.. hard to have very high spatial resolution for a watch however.

    Daniel

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  55. Despite all the thunderstorm activity we have been missing in Winnipeg, other years we were pounded constantly like the year 2010 where we got thunderstorms almost every day in the city. What pattern were we in that year? Is it possible we could have that pattern reoccur in the next few years? Also what is this perimeter sheild all about, was there other years where we used that term?
    Let me know thx....

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  56. The Perimeter Shield is fiction. A good way to get a laugh during tough times (storms missing us).

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  57. 50 mm of rain and quarter to almost golf ball size hail from that cell near Pilot Mound. Worst storm of the day!

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  58. Orangey sunset out there as we get some high level smoke drifting into southern MB from fires up over northern Prairies and NWT over past few days. Fires have really flared up over northern SK and northern MB today with numerous smoke plumes spreading southeastward in NW upper flow. That should maintain a hazy sky appereance over us this weekend, with thicker smoke/haze the further north you go.

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  59. Rob,

    who would have thought that the summer of 2012 would become a carbon copy of the one in 2011..certainly not me.

    question....

    Could we be looking at the continuation of hot and dry weather heading into August.

    Also, what are the thunderstorm chances for us with that next possible system on Monday?

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  60. EF1 Tornado confirmed southwest of Grand Forks on July 12th....

    http://www.crh.noaa.gov/product.php?site=fgf&product=pns&issuedby=FGF&format=CI&version=1&glossary=0

    Also...on the July 10th drought monitor update the Grand Forks-Fargo region is now under D2 or Severe Drought classification.

    http://www.droughtmonitor.unl.edu/

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  61. I was looking at climate this year...and from Jan 1 to July 12th 2012 is the second warmest period ever in Grand Forks. Average temp for that entire period is 43.4 only 19867 at 44.7 is higher.

    For Fargo it is the warmest Jan 1-July 12 period ever. Crazy warmth....

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  62. Me again...quiet mid... but FYI noticed a new North Dakota webcam of interest to you guys...

    Webcam in Westhope ND (12 miles south of the border on Hwy 83 west of Bottineau or down from Melita).

    Pretty data sparse area so this may help to see what is approaching far southwest Manitoba....

    http://www.dot.nd.gov/travel-info/cameras/westhopewest.jpg

    Of course view the main ND DOT page for all the webcams...they have really improved in the last year....

    http://www.dot.nd.gov/travel-info-v2/

    Select webcams tag on left menu to show sites..

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  63. I see Winnipeg airport measured an imaginary 0.5 mm of rain yesterday.

    Thank you for the webcam links Dan, it's the first time I've seen those ones.

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  64. I noticed the SPC Day 2 outlook has delineated a severe threat in north central North Dakota tomorrow afternoon, mainly hail, but also including the possibility of a tornado or two in the early evening. Any thoughts on this, and if conditions will be as favourable north of the border into southwest Manitoba?

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  65. Neat Link Dan GF. Kudos to the ND DOT.

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  66. Thanks for the webcam links Dan.. always helpful to have a set of eyes south of the border, especially to help us over SW MB.

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  67. I'm glad to see that the 32°C shown for tomorrow in the morning update has dropped to 27°C. 32°C was too optimistic given the cloud cover many models are showing throughout the day.
    Shear looks incredible tomorrow. It's unfortunate that instability and sunshine aren't better as it could have been quite a severe weather day tomorrow if they were.

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  68. Anonymous.. Taking a quick look at the setup tomorrow, I would say.. yes, there's a chance of some severe storms moving into SW MB and southern RRV Sunday evening.. with initiation likely in northern ND late Sunday. There's a difference in opinion between NAM and GEM as to how far north the severe threat will go.. with NAM suggesting severe storms possible along the US border, while GEM shows storms possible well into RRV Sunday night. As noted by SPC, capping will likely be an issue, so we'll have to check tomorrow morning's charts to get a better assessment on Sunday's severe weather threat.

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  69. Thanks for the assessment Rob. Given the relatively stable spring and early summer, it'd sure be a treat to have a supercell or two sneak across the border into the province on a day where there is a conditional severe threat.

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  70. Visibility has dropped this evening in Winnipeg due to smoke... quite noticeable now. Northerly winds today also gave us a break in the humidity with a relatively comfortable afternoon despite the near 30c temps.

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  71. Rob

    I just now saw your question about dual pol yes it does seem better.... also like the hail detection better...

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  72. Moisture gradient setting up along int'l border with muggy dewpoints just south of the border.

    Having a quick look for tomorrow..

    Potential for lots of clouds and left over showers for Winnipeg in area of elevated moisture transport tomorrow. That should keep temperatures down.. looks like RGEM was too far north again with the warm front. Good set-up for rain and elevated convection Sunday nite into early Monday as LLJ ramps up ahead of a nascent low over S Manitoba, and with warm front along int'l border. This is a much better scenario for precipitation than we have seen recently.

    Daniel

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  73. I took at peak at SPC WRF model and its hourly precipitation (it usually does pretty good with convection)...shows convection forming just north of sfc low in the Minot-Bottineau area around 00z and then spreading it east-northeast along Manitoba border or just into Manitoba (strongest part) thru the evening and toward Lake of the Woods late tonight. Seems reasonable attm, as would appear sfc low will be in between farther north NAM and farther south GFS. GFS known issue with too high dew pts of late... doing fcst tonight would suggest sfc low will be nr Minot at 00z then track toward Grafton-Cavalier ND toward 06z then toward Roseau-Baudette late tonight. Would think most severe along and just a bit north of warm front with capping issues farther south along Highway 2 and points south.

    This is what we are talking about..

    http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/mmb/mpyle/spcprod/00/

    For the 12z run put 12 in place of 00.

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  74. Band of showers and scattered thunderstorms over SW MB this morning associated with elevated convection overnight spreading northeast towards Winnipeg this morning. General rainfall amounts of about 5-15 mm over the SW so far.. hopefully activity can hold together long enough to bring similar amounts into Winnipeg this morning, however drier air over RRV/SE MB may weaken activity as it heads east. Better focusing will be to our north and west over western MB and the Interlake.

    As Daniel noted, that will leave us with a lot of cloud today, so thunderstorm chances will be minimal to nil this afternoon. As low tracks across northern ND into southern RRV this evening, there could be some thunderstorms associated with the triple point along the US border, as long as there's some good heating (i.e. clearing) down that way this afternoon. As for Winnipeg.. chances look slim again for surface based convection, unless that low can push further north and we get some sunshine this afternoon (which looks doubtful). We'll have to hope we can get some elevated convection through the RRV into Winnipeg tonight as Daniel noted, although models are hinting most of this activity will be mainly north end east of Winnipeg.

    Bottom line.. A couple of chances for some rain in Winnipeg today into tonight, but don't be surprised if we miss out on the heaviest action again (in fact, I'd be more surprised if we actually did get some decent rain!). We've only had 5 mm here in the city so far this month, while areas all around us have had 25 mm or more.

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  75. Increasingly favourable setup for potential tornadic supercells shaping up over northern ND this afternoon with low over northwestern ND and sharp warm front extending eastward over northern ND to eastern ND between GFK and FAR. Lots of impressive CAPE south of the front (2500+), with 0-6 km bulk shear of 50-60 kt along and north of front. Weak ridging at 500 mb over eastern ND with upper trof moving in over western Prairies. This reminds me of the setup that produced the June 1957 F5 tornado at Fargo. Now, before everyone starts tweeting that Fargo will be hit by an F5 tornado this afternoon, this is not what I'm saying. I'm merely pointing out that there's a potential for tornadic supercells later today into this evening somewhere along and north of that warm front over northern ND up to the international border, provided the cap is broken, which is not a given, although hi-res models indicate it happening. Anyways, something to watch.

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  76. A major difference between today's setup and the 1957 Fargo F5 day is that there was no cap in 1957.. 700 mb temperatures were around +4 to +7C at Bismarck in 1957, whereas they're +12C today. That could mean the difference between explosive supercells, or nothing. Currently, the best setup looks like around the Minot area, but again, only if the cap can break.

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  77. Moderate to heavy shower in Windsor Park at 3:45pm.

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  78. 18Z BIS sounding shows well capped environment, but a classic veering profile for supercells should anything go. Perhaps further north and west as we get later in the day.

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  79. Latest HRRR runs are showing supercells firing off in NW ND and SW MB shortly after supper time. Then a big MCS tracking across southern Manitoba late in the evening and overnight.

    Even though we don't have any sun around here really, it's not a set-up that requires surface based instability. Our juice is in the mid and upper levels of the atmosphere and will be enhanced as the LLJ gains steam tonight. 40-50 kts of shear should give way to a few severe reports in N ND and S MB tonight.

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  80. Rob is this anything close to a mid Aug 2008 wknd Setup (Sat Aug 14th perhaps) Early and then all eve from Hell on ND 5 fm Hwy 83 thru to hwy 52 up to Portal after dark. Only ND Sask border crossing open after 8pm CST then to Carduff, and back thru Redvers/Souris Bdn

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  81. Tornado watch issued for northern ND up to Canadian border.

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  82. Things looking real good for a complex in southern Manitoba tonight.

    Worth noting that they're expecting storm tops up to 55,000 feet high in the watch area. Some big time storms those would be.

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  83. Tornado watch over far SE SK and SW MB.

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  84. Rob,

    question.....

    Do you think Winnipeg will see thunderstorms overnight tonight although non severe?

    And I noticed that look slike some real heat by friday again, do you think that 35C for friday is a stretch at this point?

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  85. Anonymous.. I think we certainly have a chance of seeing thunderstorms here in Winnipeg later this evening into the overnight period as these storms that are firing to our southwest transition to a more elevated MCS type of system supported by an incoming low level jet. For what it's worth, all the high res models indicate heavy precip in Winnipeg tonight with 25 mm+ possible. Note that latest radar is showing cells staring to pop up to the southwest of Winnipeg past few scans.. which could be the start of elevated storms moving into the RRV. Let's hope!

    As for that 35C Friday.. models showing a southerly flow of hot and humid air over us once again, similar to last Wednesday when we hit 34C.. so yes, based on current model guidance, 35C is possible Friday.

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  86. Coming down here in St. James, the rain's even audible on my air conditioner!

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  87. Just picked up another quick 3 mm in a heavy downpour past 5 minutes.. up to 11 mm for the day now, heaviest single day rainfall since June 16th (a month ago)!

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  88. Not much in south St. Vital. Just 0.5 mm at my place. Looks like the line weakened just before hitting here. No thunder.

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  89. Any chance that Winnipeg would see a wind event with the thunderstorms?

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  90. Hm, I'm not feeling very optimistic right now. Those storms in southwestern Manitoba just vaporized.

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  91. Yeah, those storms over far SW MB were surface based, and basically died with the lack of heating over most of southern MB. Elevated band of thunderstorms now pushing north and east of Winnipeg.. I think that should be it for us with bulk of activity pushing north and east of Winnipeg in the overnight hours giving some fairly heavy rain in those areas (20-40 mm).

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  92. Darn. This year's next let down.

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  93. Heaviest rainfall past 24 hours mainly through the Interlake into western MB highland areas. 81 mm reported at Ethelbert, NW of Dauphin, with 40 mm in Arborg and 37 mm at Teulon. Generally 5-15 mm across the RRV, including 7.5mm at YWG airport, and 12 mm at my place. Not the real soaking we needed for Winnipeg area, but better than nothing.

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