Sunday, April 22, 2012
20 degree weather to start the week..
It'll be a nice mild start to the week as some warm air spreads across the Prairies into southern MB. Temperatures are expected to climb to the 20C mark in Winnipeg and the RRV Monday and Tuesday before some cooler weather moves in mid week. Moderating temperatures are forecast for the end of the week again. Normal high temperatures for Winnipeg are now around 13C.
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HA! Rob, you ever notice on SHAW channel 48,when they give the current conditions for Canadian and U.S cities they sometimes can never fit the observation on the screen. "A few cloud and Wi....."
ReplyDeleteOr " Overcast and B"
Interesting Free Press column today. ..Another fine snow job . about forecasting Snow fall amounts and EC NASA cooperation
ReplyDeletehttp://www.winnipegfreepress.com/local/another-fine-snow-job-from-open-government-148478335.html
Don
Interesting article Don. I'm not surprised by it though. A sad reflection of how bureaucratic the Canadian civil service has become.
ReplyDeleteRob, any thoughts on thunderstorm potential tomorrow afternoon into the night for Winnipeg??
ReplyDeleteUp to 20.8 so far on the hourly observations at YWG.. some uncertainty if we'll be able to better that tomrrow.
ReplyDeleteModels actually show flow backing more to the east tonite, and allow some cool advection at the surface. Tomorrow, flow will remain SE thru the day limiting mixing potential. In fact, NAM shows tropical warm front staying just to our SW... and potenital for low clouds to develop somewhere just to the northeast.
For those reasons, highs should be similar today. Noticed EC is going higher than SCRIBE, with 22 C vs 19 C. NAM shows a high of 21 C, but very late in the day (8 PM), probably in response to warm sector brushing us.
Best chance for true, summer-like warmth will be over extreme SW Manitoba into central N Dakota, where highs pushing 30 C not out of the question.
In terms of precipitation potential, tonite the LLJ will be focused over Central Saskatchwan, intersecting an arctic front up there. Some surface based convection may form if cap can be overcome in the warm sector tomorrow, however moisture and instability not vey impressive. Best chance for precip in Winnipeg, will come late on Tuesday as LLJ starts to ramp up just ahead of the upper wave. Best focus for elevated convection however, will be to our SE (like usual).
Daniel
30C in Medicine Hat and 29C in SW SK! As for thunderstorm potential for tomorrow, I think it's pretty low. Weak instability, and not much surface moisture.. I see they've taken the risk out in the latest forecast.
ReplyDeleteWhat is the thunderstorm potential for this evening, is there a chance as the system slides by tonight? Or is it mostly a rain chance?
ReplyDeleteI have a better chance of winning the lottery than getting hit with a thunderstorm tonight :-P
ReplyDeleteBelow is a text summary of three confirmed tornadoes in west central Minnesota that occurred Saturday afternoon April 21st. They occurred from low topped supercells, quite difficult to predict ahead of time using standard radar data.
ReplyDeletehttp://www.crh.noaa.gov/news/display_cmsstory.php?wfo=fgf&storyid=82287&source=0
Dan,
ReplyDeleteThat was an interesting event on Saturday.
Any early thoughts on our thunderstorm season? The pattern we're in is quite something.
If we've got a strong ridge building up into the southern Prairies already, I can only imagine the capping concerns we might have come June and July.
Then again, the pattern could flip at any time..
Just having our local severe weather seminar today.... our long range guy is indicating a bit warmer this summer but trend toward a bit drier. Perhaps a ridge into the western high plains putting our area in a more northwest flow Jun-Aug period and a chance of more northwest flow events.
ReplyDeleteDan,
ReplyDeleteThanks for the response. I know that you guys had quite a busy season in ND last year at the top of the central ridge.
From what I've seen and researched, NW flow events can be rather sneaky. It's hard for models to resolve them days ahead of time as opposed to a more common southwesterly flow event.
Looking forward to the coming months. With my passport, I may have to take the odd trip south of the border this year!
I was just going to mention.. the current pattern we are in is rather cool and droughty. It is a real step back from the balmy conditions we experienced in March, with a large ridge over central and eastern N America, and SW upper flow. Those 15-17 C dewpoints we were lamenting are now a distant memory.
ReplyDeleteBlocking patterns, like the one we are in right now, are not uncommon this time of the year. Problem is some years they linger into summer, like last year and 2006. The northwest flow brings periodic shots of cool air, punctuated by warmer periods as the upper ridge builds in. However moisture return is poor and displaced more towards the high plains, with a dry, easterly flow over our region.
There is also a tendency for systems to split around the upper ridge - with vertically stacked systems moving up into the northern prairies, and smaller shortwaves dropping thru the midwest, and tapping deep moisture and instability. That just leaves those sporadic NW flow events, which typically have low coverage and little precip..
Daniel
I still think that April's mean temp will be again above normal.
ReplyDeleteDaniel,
ReplyDeleteLast year is one I don't want to remember for storms. Moisture and capping did us in big time.
Do you, by any chance, remember the 2005 storm season? That one has always been a favorite of mine.
It wasn't a very warm pattern, at all. It was actually quite cool compared to normal. We ended up getting some prolific thunderstorm events.
That was a generally zonal flow aloft for much of the summer if I recall. We did start getting the odd thunderstorm event in April and May already. June and July were very busy in terms of storms.
Re April meant temp..
ReplyDeleteYes, April appears to be a bit above average so far (mean temp of 5.1 according to EC right now). And below normal temps to finsh off the month.. may not be enough to change that. It is due to a warm first week and carry-over from March - no snow and warm topsoils. Its pretty clear however, that after Apr 8 we entered into a different pattern.
Re Derek,
Yeah I remember 2005.. I think the key was a flat, broad upper ridge over the US. We got quite a few nocturnal, heavy rain-producing MCSs that year.. ones that typically pummel N Dakota and Minnesota.
Daniel
An updated story on the April 21st tornadoes....
ReplyDeletehttp://www.crh.noaa.gov/fgf/?n=westcentralmntor120421
Think with the 60% chance of rain we will actually get any rain?
ReplyDeleteMost of the rain sliding off to the north and east of Winnipeg but we're getting a few drops here. Don't expect much in the city.
ReplyDeleteRob!
ReplyDeleteLooks like the FURNACE like heat is on today in the Southern U.S
Get's me wondering if it is gonna be another brutal year for heat for them again?? Maybe it will another nice hot dry summer for us!!
36 C (96 F) in some parts of Kansas today. THAT's HOT!
ReplyDeleteAfternoon temps:
ReplyDeleteDauphin 1 C
Winnipeg 11 C
Fargo 22 C
Sioux Falls 27 C
Mother Nature really doesn't seem to like Manitoba very much
Those areas will be getting a few days of rain and cool temperatures while we bask in sunshine to end the week and weekend with seasonal or slightly-above seasonal temperatures in Manitoba.
ReplyDeleteWe'll actually need that rain by then..
ReplyDeleteCBC News Assineboine Forest Fire
ReplyDeleteThe low dewpoints and winds have caused a rapid drying of soils and leaf litter, even with average to above average precipitation in March and April.
Preciptiation chances look limited for Winnipeg with the next system, as it tries to over come omega or rex block. Stong upper ridge over N Manitoba remains anchored in place, while upper trough splits into two cut-off lows.. one over Montana that will retrograde west and weaken, and one over the central plains and ohio valley ejecting eastwards. Will be a very sharp cut-off in precipitation with surface high feeding dry air and easterly flow.
Typically for our region.. dry air wins out, however models like NAM keep inching area of rain further east. Will have to keep monitoring model runs to get better idea where that band of rain and snow will set up exactly.
Daniel
PS.. Assiniboine, oops
ReplyDeleteSorry for a non weather comment but I live in Windsor Park and for the last 20 mins there has been a loud constant sound outside. Sounds like coming from miles away. Very loud, hear it above the TV sound. Anyone else hear this? Know what it is?
ReplyDeleteForecast +9C w/rain & wet snow??
ReplyDeleteIs this a typo?
How do we receive both (9 & Snow)this afternoon?
Rob Was that annual Assiniboine Forest fire close enough to effect you?
ReplyDeleteSaturday, August 26, 2006
ReplyDeleteWelcome to Rob's Blog!
Rob 6 years have passed since you first started this Blog.
When did Robs-Obs start and have we slipped past the 10 year anniversary?
If you had a chance to start over, what would you change?
Don..
ReplyDeleteThat Assiniboine fire was to the southwest of me.. but I did notice the smoke in the air from it yesterday afternoon. I thought it was from a farmers field fire before I heard it was from the forest.
Luckily it hasn't been that warm this April, otherwise we could have had a lot more of this kind of activity flaring up this spring.
Anonymous..
ReplyDeleteI started my Rob's Obs website back in November of 2001.. so yes, I passed my 10 year anniversary last November. Blog followed 5 years later, and a website re-design (current format) was launched in 2009. Overall, I've been quite pleased with the website and the following it's generated. My main focus has always been to bring more insight into the local weather story than you get with the basic forecast.
If I could change anything, it would be that I had more regular blog updates and discussions, but that comes down to how much free time I have. It's great that other people can contribute their thoughts and input through the blog. I always welcome everyone's contributions!
Looks like a very nice day today!
ReplyDeleteThis upcoming week looks to be a more unsettled pattern with off and on showers and storms!!
Nice day indeed! A little breezy but lots of sun and temps in the upper teens. Very dry though with humidity levels dropping to near 20% this afternoon.
ReplyDeleteTurns unsettled Sunday as upper low over western North Dakota slowly tracks across SW MB into northern Interlake by Sunday evening, with increasing clouds and a few scattered showers across southern MB. Oh well, better than that 5-15 cm of snow along the AB/SK border today!
NWS Grand Forks is concerned about a potential cold core funnel/tornado event tomorrow. SPC does have a general thunder risk in that area up into southern MB. Something to watch.
ReplyDeleteAlso, could get some thunderstorm activity on Tuesday/Tuesday night.
Temperatures this afternoon..
ReplyDeleteWinnipeg.... 19C
Grand Forks..11C
Fargo ....... 8c
Minneapolis...6C
Mother Nature likes us after all! :) (well, today anyways..)
Upper low along MT/ND border this afternoon will track into SW MB Sunday. Most of srn MB will be too cloudy Sunday for convection, but Pilot Mound/SW RRV area may see some breaks by mid to late afternoon with some weak convection possible (13/6 gives about 400 j/kg CAPE)
ReplyDeleteJust reading the news and sounds like a hail storm went through the St Louis area with 1 dead and many as 100 treated as a tent collapsed.
ReplyDeleteThere is the potential for strong storms on Tuesday. Slight risk for Tuesday for areas south of the border!!
ReplyDeleteThe near march warmth EC forecast for the next 4 days. Is that an unedited by humans version or are we returning to our above normal pattern?
ReplyDeleteJim