Monday, October 31, 2011

Dry and mild for Halloween.. Potential Colorado low storm system threatens rain/snow for upcoming weekend..

It will be ideal weather for trick or treating this evening with above normal temperatures and dry conditions forecast. Cloudy skies this morning will give way to afternoon sunshine along with brisk southerly winds of 30-50 km/h that will send temperatures up to the 10-11C mark this afternoon. For this evening, expect partly cloudy skies and temperatures of +5 to +8C, with diminishing southwest winds... about as good as it gets in southern MB for Halloween.

The rest of the week looks uneventful with generally dry weather and above normal temperatures. Attention will then turn to the upcoming weekend as models are indicating the potential of a Colorado low storm system moving into the Northern Plains spreading an area of rain and snow over the Dakotas and southern MB Saturday into Sunday. At this point, it's still too early to be more precise on what areas will see snow and what areas will see rain, if any. Currently, models are suggesting that the storm will track from Colorado through Nebraska into NW Minnesota with the rain/snow line setting up somewhere through the RRV. This would give a higher threat of rain over southeastern MB and snow over southwest MB. This of course will be highly dependent on the actual track and intensity of the storm which is still in question. Still, it's the first potential storm of the season for us to monitor.. and we'll stay on top of it to see how it unfolds. Stay tuned!

40 comments:

  1. October recap: 31 C heat, 100 km/h wind gusts, thunderstorms, ice pellets....crazy month.
    What surprises will November bring???
    You know Mother Nature....a snowstorm would be a nice start!!

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  2. RUC this morning was indicating 925 mb temps of 7C today supporting highs of 13C this afternoon.. looks like it will pan out! Beautiful day to end a wonderful October!

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  3. Is that rain showers heading toward the city??? Hope all the trick or treaters don't get washed out :-(

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  4. The latest GFS run is showing us in the perfect spot to get a rain changing into a snow Saturday night. I really would like to get a nice snow out of this system.

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  5. Earlier today I had a look at the GEM Model from meteocentre it appears that the colorado low you guys were talking about could dump a good amount of precipitation either rain or snow. I assume well see snow on both saturday and sunday with the timing of the system,I cant really tell what kind of Precipitation will occur as the GEM model only depicts the amount of precip and not the type. So either is fine for me, just as long as we dont see 30 cm of snow. What models are the best at detecting the types of precipitation into the future week ahead?


    Im wondering do we see colorado lows during the summer months, if so what would usually occur with them? Any severe weather outbreaks?

    Let me know about my questions, thanks.

    ReplyDelete
  6. If you don't mind me asking this question again it got looked over in the last thread. What is the provincial precipitation record for 1 year in Manitoba for the highest annual amount of precip in 1 year? Anybody know? For Winnipeg I know its 722mm or something like that but I know Thompson in 2005 got close to 900mm! So far thats the highest I've observed but is there something higher?

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  7. That's a good question Adam, but something that I do not have the information for. I'm sure Rob might be able to take a look for ya.

    NWS Grand Forks is showing the snow rain line setting up a little further to the NW of Grand Forks than yesterday, which still puts us in the sweet spot for a rain changing to snow event.

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  8. Adam.. According to "Climates of Canada", the highest annual precip recorded in Manitoba was 966 mm in 1975 at the International Peace Gardens near Boissevain. About a third of that total that year was due to snowfall (over 300 cm) Click on my name for precip breakdown at Peace Gardens that year.

    12z GFS has shifted weekend storm a bit further west, bringing accumulating snow to Winnipeg/RRV Saturday night into Sunday. New 12Z GLB is even further west now, bringing mainly rain over RRV Sat night into Sunday with snow over southern SK into western MB/interlake areas. As you can see.. still lots of uncertainty with this one.. Stay tuned..

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  9. Tonight's GFS moving towards a warmer solution for RRV more in line with today's GLB, now showing mainly rain across RRV Sat night with snow confined mainly over higher elevations of western MB especially towards SK border. Could see some snow on tail end of storm Sunday but bulk of snow expected mainly north of YWG. We'll see if trend continues or flips with new model runs, but looks like consensus is starting to build that bulk of snow will likely fall over western MB into Interlake with this event.

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  10. Rob!
    I was looking at the weather models and noticed that 700 mb temperatures can be selected.

    I never heard that being talked about on this blog before.

    As a weather forecaster, when would one want to look at the 700 mb temps???

    ReplyDelete
  11. Im wondering do we see colorado lows during the summer months, if so what would usually occur with them? Any severe weather outbreaks?

    Let me know about my questions, thanks.

    ReplyDelete
  12. daniel..

    700 mb temperature is not a commonly used field, certainly not as much as 850 mb. It's a little too high up to mix down to the surface for temperature forecasting in our part of the world. 700 mb temperatures are often used for summertime convective potential.. as the 10C isotherm is often used as the "capping" threshold. Generally 700 mb temperatures at or above 10C means it's too warm aloft to sustain deep convection.

    Mike.. Colorado lows are most common in the spring and fall, when you get the most thermal contrast between the southern US and central Canada, as well as sufficient moisture coming up from the south, and a strong upper wind field. They are not as common in the summer months because the overall thermal contrast is lower through the mid latitudes, and the upper wind fields are not as strong. However they can occur from time to time, and would generally result in severe thunderstorms through the Central Plains, with a widespread rain over the southern Prairies.

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