Sunday, October 02, 2011
Awesome autumn continues..
An upper ridge of high pressure over central North America will continue to bring dry and warm weather over southern Manitoba through the first week of October. Temperatures will climb into the mid 20s much of the week, some 10 degrees above the normal high of 15 for early October. The warm dry start to October this year is similar to last year which saw summerlike conditions through the Thanksgiving weekend. For today, temperatures in southern Manitoba will range from the 20 degree mark through the Interlake region to 24C along the TransCanada corridor and up to 27C near the US border. The good news is that winds today will be a lot lighter than Saturday's gusty values so conditions will be more comfortable and temperatures will feel warmer. Look for sunshine and highs in the 24-27C range the rest of the week over southern Manitoba, with increasing south winds again by Wednesday. Unsettled weather is expected by next weekend (Thanksgiving) with a few showers and cooler conditions moving in. Until then.. enjoy the fine fall weather!
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Thanks Rob, awesome autumn indeed! I have a question: Will this high pressure ridge eventually affect the northeastern States? I have some friends bemoaning the cold and rain there and I'd love to be able to tell them something uplifting. Also (two questions!) is Hurricane Ophelia the main reason for their craptastic weather? Would like to hear your thoughts when you have the time but the questions are open to anyone who likes to throw in some climatology with their meteorology. TIA
ReplyDeletecirrus..
ReplyDeleteYes.. the upper ridge that is giving us our fabulous weather will gradually shift eastward over the Great Lakes and NE US by next weekend, so their weather should be on the upswing later this week into next. Looks like they'll be having a very nice Thanksgiving weekend which should make up for this cold weekend.
As far as Ophelia is concerned, it's not having any bearing on the weather over the NE as it's too far off the coast. Ophelia is racing towards the SE coast of Newfoundland and will be affecting them tomorrow with heavy rain and strong winds as it weakens to a post-tropical storm.
Thanks Rob. I will tell them the good news. Love the site by the way:) Now to turn the soaker hose off. Anyone else been watering their foundation? I've just heard our sump pump go off. Not a good sign I'm thinking...
ReplyDeleteHI EVERYONE!!!
ReplyDeleteI'M back.
This weather is just stunning. What a nice weekend for moving.
A high of 29 C on Wednesday. Unreal.
ReplyDeleteBreak out the sunscreen.
Models bring in 925 mb temps of 23-25C over the RRV Wednesday.. which can translate to highs near 30C. 29C for Wednesday looks possible for Winnipeg, although it will be accompanied by a gusty S-SE wind as well. Grand Forks going with a high of 30C for Wed.
ReplyDeleteBy the way, Winnipeg has hit 29C as late as Oct 14 (in 1988). Latest 30C reading for Winnipeg was Oct 6 1879 (30.0C) Parts of the western RRV have hit 30C as late as Oct 16th, including Morden in 1945 (30.6C) and Graysville (near Carman) in 1961 (30.0C).
Rob, Why do you sometimes refer to 925mb temps for determining the daytime high, while other times you refer to 850mb temps?? I think you might have told me once already but could you please tell me again???
ReplyDeletedaniel..
ReplyDeleteOutside of the summer months when we have maximum solar strength, the sun is less efficient at heating the airmass.. so instead of being able to heat the air from 850 mb (5000 feet up), it can only heat the airmass from a lower height.. say 2500 feet up (925 mb level). At our latitude, we usually add about 6C to the 925 mb temperature to get a general idea of the potential daily maximum temperature at the surface. (barring any other influences like low level cold advection, cloud, pcpn, etc) So in the cooler months, this method works better than the 850 mb rule.
Click on my name for a progged sounding for Winnipeg valid Wednesday afternoon. Notice that the airmass is not being heated all the way from 850 mb, but from a lower height. In Wednesday's case, the 850 mb temperature is 21c, which would give a maximum of about 32-35C if this was July. Lower down, 925 mb temps are forecast to be 23c, which would give a maximum of about 29C, a more reasonable estimate for this time of year.
Hi Rob
ReplyDeleteA forecaster in Bismarck wanted to know if Environment Canada has a cooperative observer program, like we do in the states. Mainly ordinary folks who call in/report daily high/low/precip info or who complete monthly forms and send them in.
Hi Dan GF!
ReplyDeleteWhat is your preliminary thoughts on what this winter could be like!
Is this going to be another La NINA winter???
Hi Daniel P
ReplyDeleteI enjoy reading your posts. Yes by all indications we will have La Nina this year....most consensus forecasts I see have weak but I have seen moderate thrown in too as well as close to neutral. Our local climate expert in the office has mentioned the Pacific Ocean near the equator has been in the cool phase for a while yet and the overall atmospheric response hasnt really ever left La Nina influences.
La Nina's often have warm and dry falls and then a switch and we go into winter pretty fast but usually a later winter arrival than normal many years and a cooler spring.
All the various private company and even long term NWS outlooks have our area in a colder than normal pattern DJF and JFM periods....some quite a bit below normal. Snowfall is always much tougher....most forecasts put us a bit either side of average.
Click on my name for an updated hydro and climate assessment from NWS Grand Forks. Issued Oct 4.
ReplyDeleteDan..
ReplyDeleteYes, EC does have a cooperative observer program although it's more limited than it used to be. Climate observations are input electronically through a password protected website (called COOLTAP) and the data is automatically entered into EC's climate archives, after some automated QC. The data however is not available in a daily summary form, but only available the next day on a site by site basis through EC's climate website. I actually am a COOLTAP climate observer for Winnipeg, for snowfall measurements (since the airport doesn't take snowfall data anymore)
There is a pilot project being planned through the Canadian Wheat Board (CWB) to expand the CoCoRaHS network into southern MB and southern SK this winter for snowfall measurements. Hopefully that goes through. If so, you guys will be able to access Canadian snowfall reports through the CoCoRaHS wesbite.
In the meantime, CWB has an extensive network of autostations (over 800) throughout the Canadian Prairies with real time data (except snowfall) You can access their data through www.weatherfarm.com, enter as "guest", then click on "analyze weather in your region" for a map plot of current conditons. Very helpful for monitoring local conditions, especially rainfall.
By the way, had one of your coworkers up here today at our change of season workshop.. Tom Grenehauer(sp?), talking about your back to back blizzards last winter. Tough to think about snow when it still feels like summer!
Thanks Rob for the info.... a forecaster in Bismarck wanted some info.
ReplyDeleteYep that would be Tom Graffeneur...who presented the storms.