A low pressure trough moving across the Prairies today is forecast to trigger another round of thunderstorms over southern SK and southern MB this afternoon into tonight, with some severe thunderstorms likely in some areas. The best focus for severe storms today will be over southeast SK into SW Manitoba later this afternoon into this evening where large hail and damaging winds will be the main threat with storms that develop, along with the chance of some isolated tornadoes. These storms will likely push eastward into southern MB tonight with a risk of large hail, strong winds, and heavy rainfall as storms move through. Stay tuned on this developing severe weather situation..
Friday, July 08, 2011
Severe thunderstorms possible over southern MB later today into tonight..
A low pressure trough moving across the Prairies today is forecast to trigger another round of thunderstorms over southern SK and southern MB this afternoon into tonight, with some severe thunderstorms likely in some areas. The best focus for severe storms today will be over southeast SK into SW Manitoba later this afternoon into this evening where large hail and damaging winds will be the main threat with storms that develop, along with the chance of some isolated tornadoes. These storms will likely push eastward into southern MB tonight with a risk of large hail, strong winds, and heavy rainfall as storms move through. Stay tuned on this developing severe weather situation..
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Some of the latest model runs are showing the potential for very heavy rain tonight!! 50 mm or more of rain??? Time will tell!!
ReplyDeleteHere is what the NWS Grand Forks had to say this afternoon:
ReplyDelete"THERE COULD
ALSO BE A DAMAGING BOW ECHO IF A COLD POOL CAN DEVELOP...AND GIVEN
THE STRONGER WIND FIELDS ALOFT IT WON/T TAKE MUCH TO MIX TO SFC.
IT IS VERY INTERESTING LOOKING AT THE DCAPE FIELD FROM THE GFS AND
NAM...ACTUALLY INDICATES DCAPES OVER 1000 J/KG IN THE SHAPE OF A
BOW ECHO...WHICH WOULD INDICATE A WIND EVENT IS POSSIBLE.
What is DCAPES??? Never heard that term before!!
This is what the TWN is saying - less than 1 mm of rain from Friday Evening to Saturday Evening for Winnipeg.
ReplyDeleteEC is now saying only 10-15 mm of rain tonight and sunny tomorrow in Winnipeg. My garden needs more than that!
ReplyDeleteI dont know, it's appearing a lot more like a none event. I beg someone to prove me wrong :p It's getting too dry here in south end with all these misses this summer.
ReplyDeleteYeah.. pretty much a non event for us.. although we will get some rain out of it. Maybe 5-15 mm based on upstream observations..
ReplyDeleteDCAPE = downdraft convective available potential energy.
ReplyDelete-Dave
Around 4 mm in South St. Vital.
ReplyDeleteLooks like the heat is back with a vengence!! 108F in Oklahoma City and other parts of the state!! OUCH, that is hot!!
ReplyDeleteHere is my video showing 4 tornadoes near Sundre, Alberta on July 7th, 2011
ReplyDeletehttp://youtu.be/qob0VAOukJ4?hd=1
Enjoy...sorry it's not related to Manitoba...
Rob!
ReplyDeleteLooks like the end of this upcoming week a very large area of high pressure in the U.S will bring a surge of hot weather to Manitoba! I really feel for the folks living in the deep south who are enduring this torrid heat (and severe drought)for so long now. It's just never ending!
I assume this upcoming weekend's heat wave is coming with a major rise in the dewpoints??!!
ReplyDeleteIf you believe the GFS, we'll be looking at dewpoints up to 27C by the weekend. I don't know about dewpoints that high, but they'll certainly be on the rise with the southerly flow and increased evapotranspiration from rapidly growing crops. Sure looks like a good buildup of heat later this week through early next week.. (that high of 23C for Thursday looks about 5C too cool..) Interesting that the weekend forecast is going for highs of 35C.. quite the extreme forecast from an ensemble model. Looks like 30C plus into early next week.
ReplyDeleteRob!
ReplyDeleteI know in a post last year, you were concerned about the potential of one year we here in Winnipeg getting a long stretch of very warm and humid conditions. I think it was after Moscow had gone through their monster heat wave!
Do you see any potential of Winnipeg getting stuck in a horrible heat wave this summer?? There is plenty of heat down south, just a matter of getting into a blocked pattern??? Thoughts?
Daniel..
ReplyDeleteAnything is possible, and you have to figure that the upper pattern has to change at times to bring a period of above normal temperatures to southern MB in the summer. But long range and global circulation patterns are just too complex to predict well ahead of time (like that Moscow heat wave for example) and I certainly don't have the expertise in that area to say whether or not we're due for a prolonged period of excessive heat. Will this be a temporary heat spell and we get into normal temps the rest of the summer, or will this be a prolonged heat wave that lasts into August? I don't think anyone knows the answer to that. We can have some confidence that it will be warmer than normal over the next week or two, but beyond that, it's tough to say if the heat will continue at our latitude (better chance in the heart of the hot and dry areas to the south)