A system tracking through the Dakotas brought an area of showers and scattered thunderstorms over the Northern Plain States yesterday.. but once again, the bulk of the rainfall was confined south of the border, with precipitation once again bypassing Winnipeg and much of the northern RRV and southeast MB (there were some brief showers over parts of the city last night with 2 or 3 mm, but it appears to have missed the airport) Some areas of southwest MB did pick up some rainfall yesterday, with general amounts of 5-10 mm near the US border and southern RRV, with heavier amounts through the Swan River area into the northern interlake. However, most other areas of southern MB remained dry yesterday.. a growing concern for area farmers who are looking for some much needed rainfall. After a wet start to the growing season in the RRV, the taps starting shutting down in June.. with very little rainfall recorded in July, especially over Winnipeg and the northern RRV. (see above graph showing cumulative precipitation at Winnipeg airport over the past 90 days)In Winnipeg, only 9.5 mm of rain has been recorded this month. If we get less than 1 mm of rain over the next 4 days, this will go down as Winnipeg's driest July since records began in 1872 (currently July 2006 at 10.5 mm) Will it happen? Things look dry through Friday, but there is chance of some scattered shower or thunderstorm activity Saturday as increasingly warm and more humid air moves into southern MB. At this time of year, it doesn't take much to get more than 1 mm of rain even with some passing showers, so it's not a given that we'll break the record. But given the track record of storms over the past few weeks, the potential is certainly there. Stay tuned..
That’s crazy that within the last 5 out of 139 years of records Winnipeg saw 2 of its driest Julys on record. Now when did that happen with a wet month? I don't recall recently having a wettest month on record despite a lot of people thinking it was wet recently. You know its really dry or wet when records of both kinds are approached/surpassed
ReplyDeleteWoke up, looked at my rain gauge, lowered my head and mumbled "damn". Now I have use the sprinkler for my garden tonight :(
ReplyDeleteSIGHHH... Crazy times - going to every extreme this year.
ReplyDeleteIt's like going from a very wet year which was 2010 where farmers didn't need anymore rain, and now the farmers are asking for well needed rain, that's global warming for ya, Al Gore was right!
ReplyDeleteBack to the drawing board, I'll have to water my grass and plants on my own, for now. Speaking of which there is an article saying in 20 years from now our climate could be similar to that of nebraskas,brought on by a research study by climatologists. It could get very interesting for storms in a few years, now thats a glimmer of hope! Here is the link:
http://winnipeg.ctv.ca/servlet/an/local/CTVNews/20101005/wpg_climate_change_101005/20101005/Hiccups
Check this out!!!!
ReplyDelete"Jekyll and Hyde" July In Chicago: From 3rd Driest To 2nd Wettest Virtually Overnight. Through the first three weeks of July, as of Thursday morning the 21st, only 0.45” of rain had been recorded at O’Hare Airport. Had July ended with no additional rainfall, this would have been the third driest July in about 140 years of record keeping at Chicago. Here's more from the Chicago office of the National Weather Service:
•Three days later, by Sunday afternoon, this July ranked as the second wettest on record for Chicago…with a week still left to go. What a difference three (wet) days make.
•Total rainfall through the 24th now is 9.04 inches while the record for the month is 9.56 inches (set in July 1889).
•So in a three day period we moved from potentially the third driest July to the second wettest!
See, there is still hope for us to have a wet spring....right Rob???? ....LOL
Oh, I meant wet July!!!
ReplyDeleteThat's the wild wacky world of weather for you.. you never know what surprises Mother Nature has up her sleeve. That's what keeps weather so interesting.. as much as we can predict generalities ahead of time, it's the details that can be so unpredictable.
ReplyDeleteSpeaking of surprises.. I'm surprised the forecast for Saturday for Winnipeg still reads "SUNNY". All models, including the Canadian GLB which drives EC's automated forecast, show a frontal trof moving across southern MB Saturday with a band of showers and possible thunderstorms. Ensemble guidance has been trending upwards in terms of precip amounts for Saturday (now showing about 5 mm for Winnipeg) Certainly it's not a given we'll see some rain out of this thing.. but I think there's at least a chance of showers over Winnipeg/RRV Saturday. (perhaps the GLB is showing the showers coming in Friday night and clearing out by Saturday morning.. whatever the case, it could threaten our record dry July title)
Rob, whats the weather looking like for the weekend in the Southwest at MacGregor? I'll be heading there for saturday, sunday and part of monday. Any Storms? If some, when could they hit? I'd like to know what I'm in for. PS. keep up the great work!
ReplyDeleteThanks, please reply
Rob, the Winnipeg forecast for Saturday says Sunny because the Winnipeg SCRIBE point shows only 0.8 mm of rain between 1 and 4am, with the skies clearing up by 10am and 0% cloud cover for the rest of the day.
ReplyDeleteThe actual global model has 11.8 m of precip between 4am - 10am with skies clearing immediately after. Looking at where the main trough will be at 7am (over Brandon), that forecast is not entirely convincing.
Thanks.. I suspected it was a nightime timing issue.. but that detail is certainly lost in a sunny-sunny-sunny forecast!
ReplyDeleteMike..
ReplyDeleteWeather's looking good for most of that period. As mentioned, some showers or thunderstorms possible Friday night into Saturday morning which should clear out by midday with afternoon highs in the upper 20s. Sunday looks fabulous with sunny skies, light winds and temps in the upper 20s. Increasing clouds Monday with another chance of showers or thunderstorms by afternoon, but still too far out to give more details on timing or intensity..
Thanks rob, looking forward to the storms and nice weather, gotta love it!
ReplyDeleteNever mind rain, the way this year's weather is going, I'm pulling out my winter gear - it's starting to feel like snow?
ReplyDeleteI looked at all the weather models that are on the NWS page, And the Text bulletin from FOCN45,the data altogether says there is a big potential for storms/and or rain on friday night, across the south it could be ongoing overnight. Severe thunderstorms are a potential as CAPE values climb throughout the day.It's quite difficult to predict what will occur at this point in time.Although, I am very surprised by EC and Theweathernetwork as they haven't mentioned a thunderstorm chance whatsoever.I guess we will find out the real deal tomorrow.If we get rain we'll probably cancel chances of breaking that record for dry weather.Keep us posted Rob.
ReplyDeleteHave fun on your trip Mike M!!!
ReplyDeleteIt's all in the timing. They don't tend to mention overnight thundershowers in the long-range public forecast.
ReplyDeleteThere is definitely the potential for organized elevated storms late tomorrow night and early Saturday morning in southern MB. Looks promising right now.
ReplyDeleteLooks like storms are on the wat Sat. morning keep the IRON CURTAIN DOWN!
ReplyDeleteWinnipeg airport reported 0.5 mm of precip yesterday, even though it didn't rain. However, it will likely stay in the record as it could be residual precipitation from an earlier rainfall event. So the monthly precip now stands at 10.0 mm at YWG airport... just 0.5 mm from the record.
ReplyDeleteLooking at monthly totals around the city, you can see a wide variation in precip. Areas along the south perimeter have been the driest with around 8-10 mm. Whyte Ridge and parts of central and northern Winnipeg have had about 20 mm. The Forks has had 17.8 mm so far. My site in Charleswood is at 14 mm, along with St Vital. East St Paul area has had 23 mm. So that 10 mm at the airport is certainly not representative for all areas of the city. Locally heavier showers and thunderstorms within the city on the 4th and 6th are largely responsible for the wide variation, as one would expect with convective rainfall.
thanks I am very much looking forward to my trip. By the way lets hope we don't miss these storms tonight, I may get them before you guys do in the peg.We all will have to see what the weather brings tonight.
ReplyDeleteDoes anyone know how the Winnipeg airport rain is actually recorded? Is it from a Fischer Porter gauge (which often report 0.5 mm for no reason) or does the NavCanada staff read a standard type B rain gauge? I'm guessing Fischer Porter is the answer.
ReplyDeleteAnon..
ReplyDeleteAs far as I know, it's an automated FP gauge.. and you're correct, it often spits out spurious 0.5 mm pcpn readings. I don't know why these gauges are used quite frankly.. they only have a 0.5 mm resolution (EC standard is 0.2 mm) and they often report false readings. I've also noticed they tend to have a bit of a dry bias.
Evidently, they will be moving towards a new GENOR precip recording gauge which solves most of these problems.. but I don't know when that will be.
FWIW.. 12 RGEM now showing 18 mm of rain for Winnipeg overnight into Saturday morning, while NAM shows about 10-15 mm (down from last night's 25 mm) Euro and GFS barely have anything with 1 mm or less. Weather Network going conservative with 2-4 mm, higher amounts in thunderstorms. Surely we can't dodge this one too.. can we?
ReplyDeleteI see a certain CBC 'meteorologist' is calling for a warm front tomorrow. Things that make you go hmmmmm...
ReplyDeleteWell, from reading the FOCN 45 from EC bulletin I beleive that we are probably going to run the chance of getting widespread thunderstorm activity that could be severe across the south. Even meaning maybe a squall line, Thunderstorm complex or just a good lightning show. I don't know what I'll be in for at Macgregor Manitoba. Any thoughts?
ReplyDeleteBest of luck to a great long weekend.
This comment has been removed by the author.
ReplyDeleteIt does seem like that airport recording station often under-estimates precipitation compared with other sites in the city. Seems crazy that for a large centre and airport like Winnipeg, an investment hasn't already been made in a higher quality rain gauge.
ReplyDeleteRegarding tonite's potential.. I am not sold. Best LLJ convergence and forcing will be up in Central Manitoba. There is also little frontogenesis and temperature gradient (seemingly no west to east oriented front). Hopefully we can get something out of it.. best chance would be around 7 am as LLJ axis moves over us.
Insofar as CYWG A/D wx equipage is concerned, the equipment is Environment Canada's. Nav Canada personnel conduct the human observation component for this Man/Machine site. The READAC is at the north end of the field, the observer is at the south end. The rain gauge is the standard tipping bucket that requires annual certification by E.C. It's really too bad that there is this dichotomy of operational requirements for wx obs at the airport. Nav Can only wants obs that support aviation, E.C. wants additional observations that round out climatological data. Having work in this area for many years (decades ago) I've always found it frustrating that money/budgets forced either side to entrench their positions. At times it was amazing that anything was actually accomplished and that agreements could be reached.
ReplyDeleteYes!!!
ReplyDeleteLook at all those storms fire!!!
Pray to the WEATHER GODS that we get a storm here in the 'peg tonight!!!
Rainshower at the Winnipeg airport at 4:00 am ???????
ReplyDeleteAre you sure that's not the spray from everyone's water sprinkler :-)
Wow.. another split in the storms over southern MB. Some pretty good storms through western and central ND last night with heavy rain, large hail and strong winds, and a few cells up through the northern Interlake. Precious little in between with some minor showers over SW RRV giving 1-4 mm (Carman to Winkler area) Winnipeg airport had some light showers early this morning but nothing measurable.. so barring any spurious 0.5 mm precip readings today or tomorrow, looks like driest July on record for Winnipeg!
ReplyDeleteNo comment :P
ReplyDeleteWhat a summer, hey?!
Hopefully we can get something Monday, but knowing this summer... we all know what could happen.
Regarding wx obs at YWG and many other stations recently, yes it is a shame. I used to be a wx observer at a station that just changed from EC to contract observers, and took my job seriously. However there were many horror stories with staff who couldn't even hold down a job at McDonald's being hired as observers. As a pilot, I treat every METAR with caution, whether it's a human or auto station.
ReplyDeleteMany of the auto stations aren't much better due to sensor and maintenance issues (I've seen thermisters totally caked with dust), add in the lack of a good quality control program, and the recent rift between NavCanada and EC setting up dualing stations...well it's a sad time for weather and climate data in Canada. Don't even mention snowfall measurements!!!
Anyway, looks like a record dry July after all. YWG has one more chance at a little precip yet this morning, currently south of Carberry, then that's all she wrote.
@Rob:
ReplyDeleteI was glad to see the 70% in yesterday's forecast instead of the 100% POP the GEM or NAM would have given. Turns out it was a shift in the right direction.
@Anon:
What snowfall measurements? Oh...riiiiiight.
@ Everybody!:
I'm actually a little glum about this. I enjoy the nice weather as much as anyone else, but having to constantly water plants and having a yellow back yard isn't really all that fun. Maybe we can somehow tap into some more rain through August, although I doubt it, as Aug can often be quite a dry month.
Small cell popped up over downtown and is now on the east side of the city. A few drops for the odd home is better than nothing, I guess....
ReplyDeleteHad light shower here in Transcona out of that small cell about 20 minutes ago. Didn't register anything on my rain gauge.
ReplyDeleteThis year has been something else for storms...I won't even bother to explain.
ReplyDeleteanonymous..
ReplyDeleteThanks for your valid comments re: EC's weather observations. I've been especially concerned with the degradation of EC's precipitation observations during the past decade (both warm and cold season). Way too many inaccurate observations (if any at all!) getting into the climate database due to insufficient quality control of the data. Automation and centralization of climate services can work if done properly, but it needs to have a thorough QC component to ensure the data going into the database is valid and accurate. How can we properly assess climate trends if your climate data is compromised?
Monday is our next threat (or non-threat!) of precip. FWIW.. last night's GFS was showing a 75 mm bullseye over northern RRV Monday! Yaaa, right.. we'll believe it when we see it.
ReplyDeleteNOTE: Rob's Obs wx station data not updating to FTP issues..
ReplyDeleteStill having problems with VWS software uploading my weather station data to my website. My current data can be viewed from Weather Underground at http://www.wunderground.com/weatherstation/WXDailyHistory.asp?ID=IMBWINNI3
ReplyDeleteLooks like the driest July on record for Pinawa as well, at 15.6 mm. The last record was 15.7 mm in 1979.
ReplyDeleteRob!!!
ReplyDeleteWhat are your thoughts on a potential storm getting us before midnight tonight.... and ruining our chances of a record July???
SPC thinks could erupt south of the border!!!
Here is a weather tid-bit for you!
ReplyDeleteDallas tx has recorded 29 days this month where it has 100 F or higher.
That shows how extreme this summer has been down there. This week looks to hit the ultimate high with records potentially falling left and right all over the southern states!!!
This summer has been truly one for the record books for so many!
A year ago Friday your weather station went up at this location and you say quit uplading a year later.
ReplyDeleteIs Warranty up on it Rob??
Well, looks like we'll probably set the record! I wrote a bit about it on my blog with a nice map from drought watch; a little too long for me to post it as a comment. You can see it here: http://cl.ly/8uiL
ReplyDeleteSmall storm to the southwest of Portage!!
ReplyDeleteCould this be a prelude of things to come???
@Daniel,
ReplyDeleteI think all the little showers that are popping up along the warm front will stay south of Winnipeg, and I doubt any of them will amount to much more than a brief shower with an off chance of a rumble of thunder.
so with only 2.25 hours left in July 2011, it's a safe bet that CYWG recorded the driest July on record right?
ReplyDeleteHere is a warning for ND:
ReplyDelete* AT 857 PM MDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING GOLF BALL SIZE
HAIL...AND EXTREME DAMAGING WINDS IN EXCESS OF 90 MPH. THE
LEADING EDGE OF THIS STORM WAS LOCATED 8 MILES NORTHWEST OF
LARK...OR 38 MILES SOUTHWEST OF BISMARCK...AND MOVING NORTHEAST AT
50 MPH.
Whoa! That will be doing some major damage!
Sorry for the lack of replies.. too busy enjoying the weather yesterday! Another area of thunderstorms through ND last night.. nothing north of the border. So Winnipeg sets mark for driest July at 10.0 mm.
ReplyDeleteAs for today, quite the split in opinion amongst the models.. NAM still wants to spread area of showers and thunderstorms over RRV and SE MB this afternoon into this evening with significant amounts. RGEM has caught onto the split pattern of the past few weeks, showing little or nothing over RRV with some heavier convection over northern Minnesota and northern interlake. We'll see if the dry streak continues for us.. but I think there's a chance of seeing some thunderstorms later today especially over SE MB. We'll see..
By the way, spoke with a friend who farms south of the perimeter, and he says the lack of moisture is becoming a serious issue. Crops are starting to shut down and turn yellow. He figures if he doesn't see appreciable rain within a week.. crop will be a writeoff.
Very interesting split between the 7am FOCN45 CWWG and the public forecast, from the same office. One mentions thundershowers for SE MB with a good potential for severe wx, and the other mentions nothing except for the Sprague area. I suppose Sprague is SE MB.
ReplyDeleteI think it's worth considering that absolutely no models are worth much of anything this summer. It's embarrassing how badly -all- of them have been performing.
ReplyDelete@Anon:
Often the weather office refers to Sprague/Whiteshell as SE MB, as they consider Steinbach et. al. to be in the Red River Valley.
@Buffalo7, yes, however the Whiteshell didn't even have a chance of showers mentioned, just Sprague. Steinbach is RRV. Anyway, the forecast has changed now.
ReplyDelete