Severe thunderstorms affected much of southern Manitoba today as a warm front pushed north from North Dakota spreading moist and very unstable air ahead of it. Severe storms developed early this morning over SE Saskatchewan and SW Manitoba producing baseball size hail near Shilo and Hartney MB as well as very heavy rain. Storms moved into the Red River valley this afternoon, with a severe storm developing just northwest of Winnipeg around 2 pm. This storm brought golf ball size hail that produced extensive car damage (photos above) at the Bel Acres golf course just north of Winnipeg (see video of hailstorm) The storm continued northeast bringing large hail and very heavy rain to Stonewall, Tuelon and Winnipeg Beach areas. In Selkirk, the storm produced 37 mm of rain in only 20 minutes between 2:40 and 3 pm.
The storms just south of Brandon look to be fierce! What are the chances they make it to Winnipeg overnight? If so, it will be one heck of a light show and deluge!
ReplyDeleteWe'll see if cells have enough life to make it to Winnipeg.. they still appear pretty strong and low level jet and sufficient instability aloft could keep them going into Winnipeg and the RRV overnight.
ReplyDelete82 km/h wind gust in Souris before 10 pm from that line..
Tornado warning just SW of Pembina.
ReplyDeleteCells are moving on I 29 between Mile 187 and 215(Pembina Border crossing)
ReplyDeleteSultry morning out there.. 18C dewpoint makes it feel like summer. Increasing southwest flow today will bring in drier air from the west with dewpoints dropping to 10c this afternoon. Beautiful day overall.. with highs likely approaching 25C today.. cooler tomorrow.
ReplyDeleteMeanwhile, it's snowing in NW Alberta this morning.
Aside from a day or 2 above normal, we just can't get out of this unsettled funk. What keeps me sane is when I tell myself its still officially spring. If we are still getting the 16-20C temps by the end of June (summer) I'm going to start getting frustrated.
ReplyDeleteAnonymous.. I hear ya. Pretty sad to think today is an exceptional day when in reality, we should be getting this type of weather routinely now. Normal highs are 22-23C for this time of year, which means we should be hitting 20-25C on a consistent basis, occasionally interrupted by some showers or thunderstorms. Instead, unsettled weather has been the norm.
ReplyDeleteBut it's even worse to our west over SW MB and southeast SK where pcpn is running some 200% of normal (compared to 100-150% for RRV). And it doesn't look like there's any major shift in the overall pattern over the next 7-14 days, with an active storm track cutting across the northern plains giving us above normal pcpn and below normal temps into mid June. This is in line with what CPC had been forecasting in their summer outlook over the Prairies. I'm hoping that we'll eventually see a relaxation of the La Nina induced storm track later this month so we can salvage some sort of summer this year.
Rob, does this remind you a bit of 2005, so far?
ReplyDeleteI remember that was an active year with lots of precip/thunderstorms and bouts of below normal temps.
Derek..
ReplyDeleteLet's just hope we don't have a repeat of June 2005.. one of the wettest Junes on record in southern MB. Horrible year for farmers..
Rob, Another washout coming in on Tuesday/ Wednesday by the sounds of the forecast!!! How much rain could we see????
ReplyDeleteWell the Twin Cities forecast is calling for 33 C on Tuesday and Wednesday!
ReplyDeleteAgain we have the HOT air so close...maybe one day :-(
daniel..
ReplyDeleteCurrent model ensembles suggest around 15-25 mm as a general estimate over much of southern MB Tuesday into Wednesday.. with locally higher amounts possible, especially if we get embedded thunderstorms which look possible Tuesday with elevated convection.
Thanks for the update Rob.
ReplyDeleteI see in the southern U.S states they are dealing with record breaking high temperatures!
Area's as far north as St Louis are already hitting 100 F and that's without the humidex calculated in!
It's a tale of two seasons across NA.. very dry and hot across the southern US, wet and cool across the northern tier into southern Prairies, then very dry again over the central and northern Prairies. That persistent storm track across the central/northern plains very obvious when you look at the precipitation distribution and soil moisture indeces across NA this growing season. Definitely a case of flood or famine this year!
ReplyDeleteSome wondered on another blog why we didn't redistribute the excess water south to parched Florida and Texas.
ReplyDeleteI suspect there are some here who would agree.
Anything to those cells firing up just southeast of Winkler and moving east both sides of the 49th
ReplyDeleteStrong warm front across S Manitoba with afternoon temps in the high twenties south of the intl border and in the mid-teens north of the city (what a surprise). Those storms are forming along the back edge of the LLJ which is starting to get better organized but shifting further east.
ReplyDeleteStronger disturbance moves up in SW aloft for Tuesday as mentioned. Looks like a good set-up for heavy precip over southern Saskatchewan and Alberta with developing trowal in an upslope regime. For us to get heavy convection we would need the surface warm front and nose of LLJ/best low level moisture transport to set up just to our south. Some of the models do hint at the LLJ eventually backing in and lifting the warm front along the intl border.. we'll see what happens.
SPC has southern MB under a slight risk of severe thunderstorms tonight and tomorrow.
ReplyDeleteLooking at today's american 18z american model runs.. looks like Winnipeg will end up seeing little activity. Like so often the main lower level instabilty/moisture remain off to our SE and steady rain associated with trowal will focus off to our north and NW.
ReplyDeleteLook for thunderstorms to develop in an arc across the N dakota and lift northwards overnite reaching S Manitoba by dawn. Tomorrow looks like an awful day with lite rain drizzle and low clouds eventually ending as dry slot pushes up from the dakotas.
Warm front/ nose of LLJ/ instability stay well SE of here (barely reaching Grand Forks) where they will enjoy tropical heat/humidity and have a chance of severe storms if the cap can break.
Wow, amazing how I can hear some very very distant thunder tonight from Winnipeg. Those storms are all the way in north North Dakota.
ReplyDeleteThat line of TS in Brandon now and Deloraine earlier, where it dropped 20mms of rain etc, appears to be covering the Peg by noon.
ReplyDeleteThats an hour faster than I can make it to EK from Brandon
To paraphrase Anonymous who posted the first comment Do you think it will make it?
ReplyDelete93F at Fargo and 63 at Devils Lake and Harrington. Its getting nearer.
ReplyDeleteAnd 102F in Minneapolis.. hottest day there since 1988.
ReplyDeleteThese systems this spring just love southern Sask, and south west Manitoba. Can't believe they are getting yet another deluge. Estevan had 166 mm in May, June seems to follow... Then in southeast MB, always a miss.
ReplyDeleteRUC hints at another round of elevated convection developing off to our south - in response to continued mid-level moist advection (850-700 hPa) and approaching left-exit region of 500hPa jet. These would lift NE into our region.
ReplyDeleteFurther south capping is still holding... strong SSW flow and mixing in warm sector has kept dewpoints down making it more difficult to initiate convection it seems. Dewpoint of only 12 C accompanying that 39 degree heat in Minneapolis.
That second round starting to take shape as a broken line of convection has formed from Morden to near Steinbach - where a heavier cell has just popped up south of town on radar. Will Winnipeg again escape the heavier convection?
ReplyDelete