Looks like we'll finally be seeing some nice springlike temperatures today, with sunshine and a westerly breeze allowing temperatures to climb to 17C today in Winnipeg. The atmosphere should be a little more stable as well so we shouldn't see much in the way of convective afternoon showers developing like the past few days. All in all, a nice Easter Sunday on tap. On Monday, a "back door" cold front is forecast to slip into the Interlake region as a cooler high pressure system moves across Northern Manitoba. This will bring cooler temperatures to the interlake regions Monday, while mild weather prevails over the far south with temperatures climbing to 20C for the first time this season, especially over the southern RRV. There is some difference in opinion on where this back door cold front will lie Monday as some models suggest the front will push south of Winnipeg, bringing northeast winds and slightly cooler temperatures for us (around 15C) Other guidance suggests the front will lie just to our north, allowing temperatures to rise to the 20C mark in Winnipeg. We'll have to see who's right, but the 21C forecast for Winnipeg Monday will be in jeopardy if that front settles a bit further south.
Tuesday looks mild again with temperatures in the upper teens with generally dry weather and near normal temperatures (around 15C) expected for the upcoming week. Long range guidance is hinting of a possible storm system over southern Manitoba by next weekend.
Wow.. check out that Emerson webcam.. the Red Sea rises!
ReplyDeleteWould not be surprised to see an isolated thundershower or two today as there appears to be some weak instability. Could be the same story tomorrow in SW MB.
ReplyDeleteRob, where can I view this Emerson webcam?
ReplyDeleteAnonymous..
ReplyDeleteClick on my webcam link from my home page. Emerson is the 5th row down, under Gimli's cam. That Emerson image was showing nothing but dry land a week or so ago...
Good call on the convection Derek... I'm not sure if we're seeing any thundershowers, but some convective cells did pop up just west of the city with some virga shafts visible. I thought that westerly flow and 12 degree spread would be enough to spare us one day without convection, but I guess it's asking too much to have one full day of sun around here this spring.
ReplyDeleteI noticed earlier this afternoon what appeared to be a smoke plume (farmer's field) rise up from just west of the city around 1 pm. I wonder if that released just enough condensation nuclei to trigger the local convection this afternoon?
A small thundershower passed over Steinbach this afternoon - first clap of thunder for 2011.
ReplyDeleteWas it just a single clap of thunder or multiple ones?
ReplyDeleteJust a single clap.
ReplyDeleteHi Dan..
ReplyDeleteThanks.. Yes, I have seen that Woodlands webcam from weather Underground. Weather Underground also has a nice archive directory for its webcams where you can go back and view historical webcam images and loops.
I'm not liking the looks of the GFS for Friday-Saturday. Heavy rain Friday followed by snow for May 1st, along with howling north winds. Here's hoping the GFS trends towards the weaker solutions of the GEM/ECMWF, instead of the other way around!
bit of lightning and thunder south west of us right now...so close but so far. Will it keep going and clip winnipeg?
ReplyDeletelooks like Environment Canada has updated their forecast, now 60% chance of showers with risk of thunderstorm
ReplyDeleteHi Rob, Just came back from Sunny Las Vegas and on my way back from Grand Forks I had a first hand look at some of the overland flooding around Emerson. Yes it is quite severe with the water lapping up against the interstate in some areas!!
ReplyDeleteWelcome back daniel! Thanks for bringing some of that desert warmth back with you.. (OK, not exactly 28C, but 18C is not bad!)
ReplyDeleteAs for the system later this week, GFS has backed away from its doomsday scenario from earlier this week, with all models now trending towards a more progressive upper trough solution rather than a deeper and slower cutoff low.
Ensembles suggest a band of showers (and perhaps even some thunderstorms) over the Red River valley Friday into Friday night with general rainfall amounts of 5-15 mm (locally higher if thunderstorms develop)
This activity should pull out Saturday with some lingering showers (or even flurries!) in the wrap around along with clouds and cooler temperatures Saturday, and dry but cold weather for Sunday with well below normal temperatures in the single digits. Thankfully, any snow on the backside of this system should spare much of southern MB and mainly fall to our east in NW Ontario this weekend, although RRV and SE MB could see some snow Saturday if the system is a little slower.
That's how it's looking for now.. we'll see if the models maintain this scenario over the next day or so..
I would look out for the potential of a few thunderstorms in the next few days. There seems to be a weak boundary that's been hanging around near the International border which sparked a few cells the other day.
ReplyDeleteI cannot believe how many tornadoes the U.S has seen this month!! Reports of around 500 tornadoes would smash the record for the month of April!
ReplyDeleteRob!
ReplyDeleteIs the massive outbreaks of severe weather in the U.S so far this spring a indication of what could happen here for us this summer???
What is causing this very active pattern???
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ReplyDeleteEvery year is different.. some more active than others.. but I suspect a key factor in this year's active spring south of the border has been the strong and persistent jet stream from the central Plains into the mid Atlantic states (La Nina signal). This has provided the shear necessary for severe storms, especially tornadoes, as increasing heat and moisture spreads up from the far south.
ReplyDeleteAs to why this year has produced so many tornadoes is hard to say. There have been other active La Nina years, but they haven't necessarily produced so many violent tornadoes as this year.
Incredible action south of the border indeed! As for us, Rob do you think that we could possibly have some strong thunderstorms friday night as the front comes through? To me it looks like we're missing moisture but who knows...
ReplyDeleteHi
ReplyDeleteI wanted to pass along two things in regards to communications.. NWS offices nationwide in the U.S. have been given the go ahead to start Facebook pages. Many southern region offices have then now... Bismarck just started theirs and is avbl now (Thu am) and look for Grand Forks to join in shortly. Right now the pages are experimental and so is content in the early stages.
In addition...just received word that Winnipeg and Edmonton weather offices have been given the go ahead to join NWS chat so hopefully soon us mets here can chat with our northern neighbors about weather more frequently.
Good stuff Dan. Will be looking forward to your Facebook site, as well as increased office chat.
ReplyDeleteUnfortunately, EC has been very slow in adopting social media for increased communication with the general public and media. One thing the Winnipeg office is looking at is the use of a Twitter account to get storm reports this summer. Will your office be using Twitter info as well? It's becoming a huge resource for real time weather info.
Mr farms.. I don't think we'll see strong thunderstorms here.. the best dynamics will be in the Dakotas and as you say, moisture is limited. But a few stragglers may come north of the border Friday night with some locally heavy downpours.
ReplyDeleteQuite the disaster yesterday and last night in Alabama/MS/GA. Note that the Gulf of Mexico water temperature is warmer than normal for this time of year.. about 1C above normal.. which is fairly significant for a large body of water. That increased warmth and moisture from the gulf combined with a strong and persistent jet stream could be providing the extra fuel to ramp up this years highly active tornado season.
What is going on??
ReplyDeleteSunday forecast is calling for snow and blowing snow and high of zero!
Could we actually receive a few cm of accumulation???
Rob
ReplyDeleteIn regards to twitter...there has been talk of that and some office do use it mostly down south. Hasnt been a big push up our way though yet. Central Region is usually the slowest of all the NWS regions in adopting new media.