As the Red River rises, here are a few links that will come in handy over the next few days and weeks ahead..Winnipeg city river levels (real time)
NWS Grand Forks Hydrology link
Manitoba Water Stewardship link
Manitoba Flood cams (8 across southern MB)
Winnipeg Red River flood graph (James St levels)
Free Press Flood coverage
CBC flood coverage
CTV flood coverage (includes 2 floodcams)
Rob, thanks for all that handy information put together on a single page so I don't have to go searching for all of this :-)
ReplyDeleteHey, Rob, any thoughts on elevated convection tomorrow (Thursday) night? It was mentioned on the afternoon PASPC discussion.
ReplyDeleteFirst double digit reading of the year at YWG airport.. 10.9C as of 3:30 pm. Spring is here! For comparison, last year we hit our first 10C reading on March 13th.. a full 3 weeks earlier than this year.
ReplyDeleteRed River at James Ave up to 17.9 feet as of 3 pm this afternoon.. a rise of over 2 feet since yesterday. That river is rising fast!
Thanx for the great links Rob.
ReplyDeleteAre there any April 1 to May 15th precip records which exceed last year or 1950..i.e what are the top 10.
Anything close to last years or 1950s April May rain will give the new expanded floodway the ultimate test.
Eagle eye here will devour every scintilla of QPF info from any source real or imagined.as we are 6 feet higher (23 feet and ris'n) & UPstream from downtown. Our version of the Invisible Dike Wall is already holding back water. (Buried concrete footings + 10 Feet of Steel n Cedar)
Derek..
ReplyDeleteModels have been hinting at a band of elevated convection developing over northern ND/southern MB late tomorrow into tomorrow night, but there is a lack of consistency as to where and when this may develop. Initial thoughts are there could be some scattered showers developing over the RRV by tomorrow evening moving into NW Ontario Friday morning. Another bout of convection is likely closer to the 850 mb low and LLJ over NW ND early Friday which will move over southern MB during the day Friday. This second wave has the potential to produce more significant rainfall with better moisture transport and dynamics. Models hint at the possibility of 15-25 mm with this second wave from SW Manitoba into the RRV.. but timing and location will depend on when, where and if convection initiates in the Dakotas. Welcome to spring!
Jim..
ReplyDeleteI don't have April 1-May 15 precip stats, but I can give you some April precip stats since this will be the main factor leading up to the crest.
Since 1939 (Winnipeg airport stats), the top wettest Aprils have been..
1986 .... 98.3 mm
1963 .... 90.4 mm
1991 .... 79.3 mm
1997 .... 76.6 mm
1979 .... 73.5 mm
1967 .... 72.6 mm
1954 .... 70.1 mm
April 1950 had a rather meager 43 mm, but that was followed by 83 mm between May 1-9th that really sealed the deal for the city.
Over the past 10 years, Aprils in Winnipeg have been fairly dry, averaging about 30 mm, with the wettest being last year at 45 mm. But even that month was dry until a 26 mm rainfall late in the month.
As you note, precipitation in the next 4 weeks will be critical to how severe this flood event will be for us. Long range outlooks point to a west coast trough pattern with a southern Plains ridge, which would tend to set up a storm track through the northern Plains.. not ideal if you want to stay dry. Let's hope we can dodge a few bullets and get out of this with minimal impact..
A couple of lightning strikes noted with those convective cells near Pinawa.. tops up to 20,000 feet on radar.
ReplyDeleteThanks Rob. Interesting that the Max April precip are all ENSO Neutral Winter/springs unlike this years waning La Nina. A glimmer of hope there.
ReplyDeleteThis warm weather and the now imminent weekend (again) will not help.
Is showers with embedded thunderstorms possible with tomorrows rain event in Winnipeg?
ReplyDeleteQuestions for later..
ReplyDeleteHow vital is it to have an accurate forecast for more than 24/48/96 hours?
How much emergency response money would we save if we could accurately predict vital info for next 7 days?
What $$ savings would occur if we had that info?
If we beefed up the EC office in Winnipeg could this happen here?
Amazing that simultaneous near record peak flood levels are occurring the entire 900Km length.
ReplyDeleteBand of rain over southern RRV pushing north this morning. Observations from CWB and MB-AG wx networks indicate about 0.5 - 2.5 mm have fallen in the band so far.
ReplyDeleteMB Ag-wx network has activated its precp sensors.. you can access this info under the "current temperature" map link on my homepage.. or http://tgs.gov.mb.ca/climate/CurrentConditions2.aspx
CWB info can be accessed through www.weatherfarm.com and click on the "analyze weather in your region" to create a map plot of any variable including rainfall. You'll need to login to the site first (personal account or guest)
Note that the CWB network includes several new stations in the RRV installed by the Manitoba Water Stewardship to monitor precipitation amounts. This is all great info since you can monitor rainfall amounts in real time.
Thanks Rob I was just going to ask how much you anticipate over the next hour or two from that approaching headingley .
ReplyDeleteJim
Rob, did you see that SPC has already Issued a moderate risk for areas as far north as southern Minnesota!! Hmmmm.....
ReplyDeleteVery rare to have a Day 3 moderate risk by the SPC. Daniel, as you mentioned, tornadic storms are possible as far north as Minnesota this weekend. Impressive how far north the storm track is.
ReplyDeleteThis may be a recurring theme through the rest of spring as a strong ridge develops over the southern and southwestern US. We may get an early start to the thunderstorm season this year. S/SW ridges tend to give us busy convective years.
We'll see how it plays out.
Yes, if things play out like models are suggesting, Sunday could be very interesting over southeast Minnesota and western Wisconsin. Good to have a MDT risk this far out for an early season weekend event that people may not be paying attention to. (although in the States, it's hard not to be weather informed..)
ReplyDeletePicked up 5 mm of rain today, with a general 5-10 mm over the RRV, and 10-15 mm over SW Manitoba according to MB Ag-wx network. Rain was coming down pretty good there for awhile this afternoon with big drops and moderate intensity. Looks like we won't see too much more tonight into Saturday as main activity moves off to tour north and east. Will have to watch out for possibly more rain Sunday as strong storm system moves into southern Minnesota with significant rainfall possible over southern RRV/SE MB on NW flank of storm system.
Golf weather ??
ReplyDeleteRain has wrapped around over us again as it moves off to the northeast.. looks like we'll get another 5 mm or so this evening before it tapers off after midnight.. up to 7 mm at my place as of 8 pm.
ReplyDeleteHeaviest rain this evening mainly along Hwy 2 corridor into Winnipeg.. generally 10-15 mm totals as of 9 pm between Treherne and south Winnipeg. Up to 9 mm at my place as of 9 pm..
ReplyDeleteWhoa.. 00z REG GEM is going nuts with rain on Sunday for the RRV.. showing a 43 mm bullseye over Winnipeg area by Sunday evening with a deep 981 mb low over Lake of the Woods. At this point, this seems to be an extreme solution as other models are nowhere near as intense on the low or the rainfall. REG GEM likely overdeveloping system based on convective feedback.. although some rainfall is likely for us. We'll have to see what the GLB GEM says but I suspect it won't be as extreme as the REG.
ReplyDeleteRoblin and dale near the perimeter resembled a lake last night with some major street flooding!!!
ReplyDeleteThe snow is pretty much gone in Steinbach. The area I've been using to measure snow all winter is now down to only a few centimetres of patchy snow, which represents a melt of over 45cm since March. There are definitely still snow banks around in areas that were piled up by ploughs, but the true snowpack is basically finished.
ReplyDeleteEC is saying 5-10 mm, while TWN is saying 30-45 mm. That's a pretty big difference. What's the story here??
ReplyDeleteIt was only a few weeks ago that the flooding situation was not going to be too drastic!!
ReplyDeleteNow within the past few days things have turned very bad especially area's north of Winnipeg!
anonymous..
ReplyDeleteSee my earlier post about last night's REG GEM model giving 40+ mm to Winnipeg for Sunday. TWN is going with it, while EC has opted for a drier solution supported by other models and ensembles that take the bulk of the rain to our south and east. Similar issues continue today with the REG GEM and GLB GEM continuing to be further north and west on the northern Plains system resulting in heavy rain over the RRV of southern MB Sunday, while NAM/GFS/ECMWF just clip SE MB with rain. We'll have to see who's right.. but consensus right now is for the main system and associated rain shield taking a track further south and east.
As you suggested Rob the new 40mm target appears to be near Grand Forks with what seems like a 5 day total nearer 40mm for the RedLake and Thief River basins!
ReplyDeleteI'm not sure that is an improvement on the flood situation.
1-5 Day QPF
and
1-2 Day QPF
http://www.hpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/d12_fill.gif
http://www.hpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/p120i00.gif
Rain shield staying mainly to the southeast of Winnipeg today.. general amounts of 2-5 mm so far south and east of Morris according to CWB Weatherbug network. Satpix and radar returns indicate heaviest rainfall should fall over the Fargo area through NW Minnesota into NW Ontario where 10-20 mm is possible through this afternoon into evening.
ReplyDeleteSounds like areas around Fargo are seeing some severe overland flooding!
ReplyDeleteDan GF how are things around Grand Forks?? I'm catching a flight out of the airport in a couple of weeks so I'm hoping all of this is not so bad in a while!!!
Hi Rob. This isn't related to the topic but I was just wondering when there exists a shortwave at 500mb will there always be a surface feature with it, such as a surface low?
ReplyDeleteHi Daniel P
ReplyDeleteYes overland flooding just north and west of Fargo is the worst it has ever been. Waters from the Sheyenne, Rush, and Maple causing severe havoc not to mention some road raises which have been done which is acting as dikes. Way worse than 2009 county officials say.
Now for Grand Forks area, no troubles....you will be fine. Red around Oslo area spreads out and at times may impact I-29 some there but nothing like I-29 north of Fargo.
Dan
Great pic and headline story near 6pm yesterday on your NWS site Dan. The enhanced Radar link on NWS GF site highlighted the Lisbon as well as Thief River Falls area heavy rain totals. The WDAY site also had the story..Overland Flooding and I-29 closing and most importantly the rerouting suggestions, but not your great pics.
ReplyDeleteThose sites are
NWS Grand Forks Forecast Office http://www.crh.noaa.gov/fgf/
Top news of the day
Unprecedented Overland Flooding in Cass and Clay Counties
NWS Enhanced Radar Image http://radar.weather.gov/radar.php?rid=mvx
and WDAY Story http://www.wday.com/event/article/id/7806/publisher_ID/30/
Rob? Is the Minnesota/South Dakota 80 to 100mm QPF Bullseye later this week/weekend creeping North??
ReplyDeleteTemperatures expected to drop 20 degrees between todays high and tonights low?
ReplyDeleteThats quite the cold front.
Grand Forks to hit 52 ft wed aftn-thursday on the Red.....Extra water from the Red Lake boosting levels a bit. Flow expected near 100,000 cfs. We have seen record flows near Halstad. Overland flooding north and west of Fargo worst ever. Now getting reports from west of Devils Lake and its basin of rapid overland flooding. Devils Lake reached its record peak....and only has a lot more to go.
ReplyDeleteNeedless to say need a drier summer or 2 or 3...
Dan
Dan Was the 2009 Peak 120,000 cfs
ReplyDeleteJim.. With the main storm moving through the central plains, the bulk of the precip should remain south of the RRV. Tonight's NAM however shows a wide swath of significant precip reaching all the way through western ND into southern SK along an inverted trof from the main low. If this inverted trof maintains itself as it moves east, this could bring precip further north into the southern RRV.. but we'll have to see what future model runs show.
ReplyDeleteI hope this is wrong.. TWN is forecasting significant precipitation in the RRV upstream from Winnipeg this coming 6 days.
ReplyDelete... .....Rain (mm) ..Snow (cm)
Fargo .. ... 9-13 ..14-16
Thief Rvr Fls....5-9... 14
Grand Forks.... 7-9.. 16-20
Devils Lake.... 5-9.. 27-33
Minot ........ 5-7...13-20
Brandon ...... 2-4.. 7
What a brutally cold day out there.. even with strong sunshine we can barely make it to freezing. Such a drastic change from the past two days when I was outside doing some spring yardwork in the warm sunshine. Ahhh, spring in Manitoba.. we're always one cold front away from winter!
ReplyDeleteSpeaking of which.. I hope that snow for Friday-Saturday doesn't pan out.. but I'm not liking the look of the new 60hr NAM! (5-10 cm of snow for Winnipeg/RRV Friday afternoon/evening?!)
It must be a weekend soon, new snow and rain in the forecast..☹☹☹☹
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