Tuesday, March 22, 2011
Storm to spare much of southern MB.. significant precipitation still expected over Red River basin..
The storm system that was threatening to bring significant snowfall to southern MB as far north as Winnipeg will be sparing much of the area, with the heaviest precipitation expected to remain mainly south of the border over North Dakota. Winter storm warnings over southwest MB have been downgraded to areas mainly near the US border from Melita to Pilot Mound where 10-15 cm is possible. Heavier snowfall, mixed at first with ice pellets or rain, is expected across the Red River basin of North Dakota with a foot or more of snow forecast for Grand Forks this afternoon through tonight into Wednesday. Overall, it looks like 20-30 mm of precipitation is expected over the Red River basin of North Dakota through Wednesday which will add to the Red River flood threat as we get into the melting season. The good news is that most of the Assiniboine basin should miss out on heavier precipitation with this system.
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That was so close that I won't need to shave today. I guess it was a very difficult prediction event.
ReplyDeleteLooking out my living room window would lead one to conclude that spring will never arrive, but it's encouraging to see the snow is receding in the country as witnessed by web cams. More black to suck up heat.
http://206.45.102.213:8085/jpeg.cgi
I don't know why they put a web cam there, but it's very good and handy.
The other memorable March early April RRV blizzards 1966, 1997and 2009, had similar yes/no predictions. or in the case of 66, no warning at all til 2 hours before it blew in.
ReplyDeleteAt 5am we were looking at up to 19 inches in Grand Forks Are we still positive no part of this will be in Winnipeg?
Rob What makes the northeast penetration of these storms so difficult to predict at this time of year?
ReplyDeleteI'd be more concerned with extended cold temperatures if I was going to worry about a late spring rather than just some snow. Just because you get some snow doesn't mean the onset of warm temperatures will be delayed. Its spring. The sun is high in the sky. Its going to get warm anyways so don't worry! At least hope for rain if nobody wants snow. I never take for granted abundant precip when we get it, even if it is snow and even if it is in spring (which will melt soon anyways). And you never know when a crippling drought will happen then your wishing you had that rain or snow to replenish the soil (or at least enough stored in the ground to get you through the drought). I don't know it bugs me when people wish away certain kinds of weather just so they can live a comfortable life and just take for granted what we have. I'm sorry for the rant and this is not aimed at anybody specifically (sorry Box134 if it seems like it is at you but it isn't) but yeah IMO better to have too much precip then too little (and by too much I don't mean devastating floods that wipe everything away and cause great death. Its not like that here at all. When it gets that bad then I’ll hop on the wishing precip away bandwagon). Most of our floods aren't usually something we can't recover from, or haven't in the past. And for a later spring, its not like were in an ice age! It probably won’t be like this every year. Snowy springs didn’t kill you before and it won’t now! This is Manitoba embrace our wild weather!
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ReplyDelete@Jim..
ReplyDeleteThe pattern associated with this storm is fairly typical for spring I have noticed. There is basically a large rex block pattern over western N America (upper ridge over the prairies which is north of an upper trough over the western US). The resulting surface high on the leeward side of the upper ridge feeds a dry eastery flow undercutting the moisture out ahead of the upper low and trough.
This type of pattern usually results in heavy precip over SW Manitoba and western N Dakota and very little over NW Ontario which typically sees more precipitation.
@ anonynmous...
heavy snow cover over the treeless, featureless RRV has a huge impact on temperautres even in April. In 1997, there was still snow in protected areas into the first week of May... that's ridiculous and nobody wants to see a repeat.
Daniel Thanks..
ReplyDeleteAs to your other comment.. .I assume you also mean that prairie great lake effect AKA the Red Sea lengthening our cold spring.
Crazy snowfall gradients in our area.... stubborn dry air prevented snow from getting to Grand Forks all night. Got less than an inch at my house...more like 1/4 to 1/2 inch. Meanwhile....20 miles south we got 20 inches Mayville....12 in Buxton....2 inches of sleet and 8 inches of snow in Fago. Liquid melted down close to 1.25
ReplyDeleteWow.. to think the GEM had that gradient between Winnipeg and Emerson.. it was actually between GFK and FAR! Still a lot of water that will be heading into the Red River basin.. but not as bad as it could have been had the storm been further north as earlier advertised. GEM hasn't had a good track record of late with these Northern Plains systems..
ReplyDeleteThat sharp snow gradient that Dan was referring to shows up very nicely on visible satellite imagery today. Northern edge of snow line was very close to Grand Forks, with bare ground to the north, and solid white snowpack to the south.
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ReplyDeleteSnow line Rob is referring to shows up quite nicely in this image:
ReplyDeletehttp://img585.imageshack.us/img585/4494/saskshortblended25.jpg
The yellow is the snow on the ground; incredibly sharp line near KGFK that goes from practically no snow to plenty of it.
"I'm sorry for the rant and this is not aimed at anybody specifically (sorry Box134 if it seems like it is at you but it isn't)"
ReplyDeleteNo, it never occurred to me that anything you said was directed at me. I've been away so I'm still content with letting nature take it's course. In fact, I was saying that snow is disappearing in the country.... it's just slow in the city because we've heaped it up with snow clearing operations.
Check out the classic omega block thats set itself up over us, with the low off the west coast and over newfoundland and labrador
ReplyDeletehttp://img155.imageshack.us/i/omegablock.gif/
Looking out 48 hours it still holds strong (500 mb image on upper left corner)
http://img825.imageshack.us/i/omegahighmarch242011.gif/
You got your wish if you wanted clear sunny weather till April!
My second link didn't work here it is again. http://img825.imageshack.us/i/omegahighmarch242011.gif/
ReplyDeleteThe lows off the west coast and east coast I was referring to are shown 48 hours out. The first image was from yesterday, with that narrow omega high.
Third times a charm! Here it is again 48 hour 00Z run 500 mb global GEM chart (upper left)
ReplyDeletehttp://img825.imageshack.us/i/omegahighmarch242011.gif/
I give up if this doesn't work!
Copy and paste the link and type .gif at the end and it'll work!
ReplyDeleteThat omega block is going to give us a nice stretch of ideal slow snowmelt conditions over the next week, with plenty of sunny somewhat mild days, and cold nights with no major precipitation through the end of March. We'll have to wait for the numbers out of Grand Forks to see what impact the latest storm had on the flood outlook, but overall, weather is looking very favourable over the next week or so. Ensembles and GFS indicating more unsettled weather moving in for early April.
ReplyDelete