Thursday, March 24, 2011

Dry weather over next week to give ideal snow melt conditions..

A blocking ridge of high pressure over the Prairies will maintain generally sunny and dry weather over the next week over southern MB.. giving ideal slow snow melt conditions over the Red River valley. Strong late March sunshine and afternoon temperatures near freezing will contribute to a slow snowmelt during the day, while well below freezing temperatures at night will prevent a more rapid melt. No major precipitation events are expected over the next week over southern MB, although models show the potential for some precipitation over the central US Plains with some stronger storms systems. Latest guidance is hinting for some unsettled weather moving into southern Manitoba the first few days of April. Until then, the weather is looking very favourable over southern MB. This is good news in light of the 20-40 mm of precipitation that fell in the Red River basin south of Grand Forks earlier this week. Updated flood outlooks from Grand Forks and Manitoba indicate an increased threat of major flooding over the Red River valley on par or worse than the flood of 2009, especially in the southern RRV of North Dakota.

40 comments:

  1. 24 cm snowpack in my backyard melts down to 73 mm water equivalent. Snowpack is considerably less in large open fields around Winnipeg with lots of bare spots opening up. Overnight temperatures only dropped to -10 to -13C over the minimal snowpack in the RRV, while lows of -18 to -25C were observed over the deeper snowpack over SW MB.

    BTW, NWS is scheduled to release their updated Red River flood outlook in Fargo this afternoon.

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  2. ECMWF weekly long range model shows unseasonably cold through the 3rd week of April. I would assume arctic highs will dominate?
    If thats the case, it'll mean lots of sunshine.

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  3. NWS has released an updated Red River flood outlook. Click on my name for details or "Grand Forks" in the blog entry. Flood risk has increased, especially over the south due to recent precipitation and a delayed snowmelt until April. NWS now predicting a 45% chance of Fargo reaching 2009 levels.

    (Note: Accompanying snowfall map on flood outlook says Feb 22-23 snowfall when I think they meant Mar 22-23)

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  4. Thanks Rob. Manitoba Flood Outlook is also out today...on my name or

    http://www.gov.mb.ca/waterstewardship/floodinfo/forecasts_reports.html#spring_flood_outlook
    Select Spring Flood Outlook from the list and then the March 24th Report.

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  5. New flood outlook shows Pembina at 90 percent chance of getting higher than the 2009 record crest....

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  6. HI ROB and everyone else on this blog!

    My computer was in the shop all last week so I missed on all the blogging! Shucks!

    Sounds like you had lots to talk about but good to see that things will remain quiet for a while while the spring melt is in effect!!

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  7. Amazing number of xtr summer rains and floods are preceded by Volcanic activity especially those from Iceland

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  8. Welcome back daniel! I was wondering where you were!

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  9. It seems overnight lows have been under- (over-?) forecast the past few nights, with forecast lows in the -16 to -19 range and actual overnight lows not really dropping below -15 in the RRV.

    Time to get my bike out!

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  10. forecast for winnipeg is -16 for an overnight low, let's see if we only get down to -12...

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  11. That late March sun is just so warm!
    -2 C for a high today!!!
    It felt much warmer than that!!!
    Nice stretch of weather :>)

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  12. @Anon:

    It got down to -12.4 last night at the Winnipeg Int'l Airport :)

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  13. Looks like some daytime heating cumulus clouds are developing today!
    A sure sign of spring weather!!

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  14. Interesting to see that cumulus cloud pop up right over the urban core of Winnipeg, and over the snow free terrain over the southern RRV.. strong sunshine working on ground with lower albedo (darker, warmer ground) to start the convective process. Yes, a sure sign of spring! (as slow as it is this year)

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  15. Looking at early april it seems there is some very warm air building over southern U.S, while we sit in a cool weather pattern!

    It seems there could be some big storms very close by with such a huge temperature differential across the area!!

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  16. It looks like something big is brewing south of the border for this upcoming weekend!

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  17. The model predictions for ENSO are quite interesting. NASA model is the most aggressive with a weak El Nino beginning in April where as the ESSIC ICM shows La Nina weakening but returning to a moderate La Nina by late summer.

    Assuming we gradually come out of the La Nina funk and enter neutral to weak El Nino by summer, what impact will it have on our summer?

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  18. Rob, are those 5 day QPF suggestions and Dan NWS FGF Appearing in your analysis.
    " A major storm system may develop on Sunday and affect the region. A mix of rain and snow may develop late Saturday night and spread into the area on Sunday. Significant amounts of precipitation are possible, with accumulating snow also possible."

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  19. Is that Winnipeg area your talking about for the storm system

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  20. Daryl .. Discussion at 2pm today on NWS FGF
    THE NEXT FEW DAYS WILL HELP PINPOINT
    THE EXACT THREAT AREA. TEMPERATURES LIKELY BELOW NORMAL...AND HIGHLY
    DEPENDENT ON WHERE FRESH SNOW FALLS.

    Heres the 4-5 QPF visual forecast and map. This is also on RobsOBs precip Page.
    http://www.hpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/day4-5.shtml

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  21. It would appear that the weekend event is moving pretty much from west to east.... we dont have that dry and large high over northwest ontario to protect us...but yet no 500 mb ridging out ahead of the system to propel northeastward. So my hunch is it will target southern ND/northern SD pretty much the area which has been hit all year. Doest look like a huge huge event but certainly 6+ inches of snow very possible somewhere with it. Still waiting to see some future runs of GFS/ECMWF/GEM for consitency. Would appear GF northward will once again escape most of it.

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  22. Dan NWS FGF Bulletin 4am today??
    ⁂⁂⁂⁂A major early Spring storm may impact the region late Saturday night through Sunday. Snow is expected to develop across central North Dakota Saturday night, then spread into eastern North Dakota and western Minnesota on Sunday. At this point it appears the heaviest snow accumulations would occur in the southern Red River Valley, with lighter amounts to the north. Any slight shift in storm track could cause the heaviest precipitation band to shift to the north. Therefore, it is still too early to predict the exact track of this storm system, so stay tuned to later forecasts that will pinpoint potential impacts from this storm.

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  23. Winter storm watch issued for area's of western ND already!!

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  24. Even though the models have shifted the storm much further north on the past runs, I'm not jumping on the storm bandwagon untill Saturday!

    Dan GF....what is your feeling on this storm???? Will this be a storm for area's of Southern Manitoba or North Dakota again??

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  25. Are all the storms going to hit SD... Probably not, I think Manitoba will get rain/tstorms early to mid April.

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  26. Daniel P ---

    tough one on upcoming storm. Storm track was consisent in bringing main snow to southern ND then last night's shift north. If one model shows it you can likely disregard it....but GEM, ECMWF, and 00z GFS brought it north. Will be interesting to see 12z runs. So right now not quite ready to jump on northern bandwagon..

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  27. Thanks Dan GF for the input!
    The morning runs have kept southern Manitoba in the crosshairs!!

    Oh boy.....just one more storm before the season ends.....STORM, STORM, STORM.....oh right I was not supposed to get excited untill Saturday :>)

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  28. Never trust those April Fools day casts at least until pm....
    That said was it Dan Gf who suggested the same look as last wknds system..First south than north and finally south?
    Not good timing for potential moderately big snowmaker for the northern RRV in the next 54 hours?

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  29. 24 hours til it starts and NWS Grand Forks suggest the most snow (15cm) north of the Cdn border from Sat night to Monday am

    See.....http://www.crh.noaa.gov/product.php?site=FGF&issuedby=FGF&product=AFD&format=CI&version=1&glossary=0

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  30. Model consensus is for snow band to fall near international border or just maybe on the US side of the border down to near US Highway 2. 06z nam and ecmwf are a bit farther north with main axis on canadian side. Systems is pretty progressive...so dont look for foot amounts but could easily be 6-10 inches in heaviest band.

    Water is ponding and is getting real close to gushing across the far southern RRV in ND. Reports form the field indicate still snowpacked fields Fargo southward but water ponding and snow is very ripe and just ready to really run. What will it take?? Would appear rain from current system in SE ND to be pretty light. Next storm on horizon is toward the 9th-10th per ecmwf/gfs which looks to be more of a northeastward moving system with def zone precipitation on its nw flank. But things are starting to roll melt wise in the southern basin for sure.

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  31. 126
    WWCN13 CWWG 021043
    SEVERE WEATHER BULLETIN
    ISSUED BY ENVIRONMENT CANADA
    AT 4:43 AM CST SATURDAY 2 APRIL 2011.
    ---------------------------------------------------------------------
    WATCHES/WARNINGS IN EFFECT FOR SOUTHERN SASKATCHEWAN...

    SNOWFALL WARNING FOR:
    =NEW= CARLYLE - OXBOW - CARNDUFF - BIENFAIT - STOUGHTON
    =NEW= ESTEVAN - WEYBURN - RADVILLE - MILESTONE
    =NEW= ASSINIBOIA - GRAVELBOURG - CORONACH
    =NEW= SWIFT CURRENT - HERBERT - CABRI - KYLE - LUCKY LAKE
    =NEW= LEADER - GULL LAKE
    =NEW= SHAUNAVON - MAPLE CREEK - VAL MARIE - CYPRESS HILLS.

    10 TO 20 CM OF SNOW FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN SASKATCHEWAN.

    ---------------------------------------------------------------------
    ==DISCUSSION==
    ENVIRONMENT CANADA METEOROLOGISTS ARE TRACKING A DEVELOPING LOW
    PRESSURE SYSTEM CURRENTLY OVER NORTHERN IDAHO THAT WILL BRING SNOW TO
    SOUTHERN SASKATCHEWAN.

    THIS LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL MOVE ACROSS MONTANA TODAY AND INTO THE
    DAKOTAS OVERNIGHT. SNOW ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO
    BEGIN IN SOUTHWESTERN SASKATCHEWAN THIS MORNING AND SPREAD TOWARDS
    THE SOUTHEAST CORNER OF THE PROVINCE LATER TODAY. THE SNOW IS
    EXPECTED TO END SUNDAY MORNING AS THIS WEATHER SYSTEM MOVES OUT OF
    THE AREA.

    CURRENT INDICATIONS ARE THAT THE HEAVIEST SNOWFALLS WILL BE CONFINED
    TO A NARROW BAND FROM MAPLE CREEK TO ASSINIBOIA, WEYBURN AND CARLYLE
    WHERE SNOWFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 10 TO 20 CM ARE POSSIBLE. AREAS TO
    THE NORTH AND SOUTH WILL RECEIVE LESSER AMOUNTS.

    AS THIS SYSTEM IS STILL DEVELOPING, UNCERTAINTY STILL EXISTS AS TO
    THE EXACT LOCATION OF THIS NARROW BAND OF HEAVY SNOW.
    ENVIRONMENT CANADA METEOROLOGISTS CONTINUE TO TRACK THIS SYSTEM AND
    WILL ISSUE UPDATED FORECASTS AND WARNINGS AS REQUIRED.

    PLEASE REFER TO THE LATEST PUBLIC FORECASTS FOR FURTHER DETAILS.

    END

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  32. Latest suggests >25mm SWE (Snow water Equivalent) in SthrnMB and Nthrn ND/MN in this system.

    Can you say April 4th 1997?

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  33. This comment has been removed by the author.

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  34. Thnx for the info Dan GF Looks like that term "game breaker" might be appropriate for this. Lets hope not.

    Anonymous.. April 97 Blizzard was followed by a few days of extreme cold.
    Do you see any of that cold weather next week?

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  35. Rob, any chance of this staying as all rain as temperatures hover just above the freezing mark??

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  36. NWS Winter Storm Warning 352PM
    A STORM SYSTEM OVER EASTERN MONTANA AND WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA WILL
    MOVE INTO THE REGION. SIGNIFICANT SNOWFALL IS EXPECTED ALONG AND
    NORTH OF A DEVILS LAKE TO THIEF RIVER FALLS LINE...WHERE 6 TO 10
    INCHES IS EXPECTED BY MONDAY MORNING. A RAIN AND SNOW MIX WILL
    ENTER THE DEVILS LAKE BASIN THIS EVENING...THEN SPREAD EASTWARD
    OVERNIGHT. A CHANGEOVER TO SNOW WILL OCCUR BY SUNDAY MORNING. THE
    SNOW MAY BE HEAVY AT TIMES...LIKELY CAUSING REDUCED VISIBILITY. AS
    THE SNOW CONTINUES INTO LATE SUNDAY AFTERNOON...WINDS WILL TURN
    NORTH AND INCREASE TO 25 TO 35 MPH...CAUSING REDUCED VISIBILITY IN
    BLOWING SNOW. CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE BY MONDAY MORNING. THERE
    WILL BE A TRANSITION ZONE JUST SOUTH OF THIS AREA WHERE 3 TO 6
    INCHES OF SNOW IS EXPECTED. THERE COULD BE A SHARP CUT OFF TO
    NEARLY NO SNOWFALL ALONG THE SOUTHERN EDGE OF THIS BAND.

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  37. Just got back from a week in Niagara and was happy to get back to sunshine, +9C temps and a noticeable loss of snow cover here. But my happiness was short lived after seeing the forecast. 5-10 cm of wet snow Sunday? Not a nice way to greet people coming back from spring break!

    I haven't had a lot of time to look into this event, but rain overnight changing to snow Sunday morning looks reasonable for Winnipeg and RRV, with heavier snowfalls over higher elevations to the west of the RRV. Snowfall amounts will depend on timing of transition to snow with some melting likely at first, but Winnipeg could be seeing some heavy snowfall rates at times Sunday which will give us a good 5 to possibly 10 cm. Yuck!

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  38. -8.5 was the average for March. How much below normal is that and when was it colder?

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  39. I'll take 5 to 10 cm over the 30+cm in southern Alberta

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  40. At -8.5C, March 2011 ended up over 2 degrees below normal at YWG airport (normal -6.1C) and a whopping 8C below last March's mean (-0.6C). Precipitation at my site was meager in March, with 12 mm of rain and 9 cm of snow for the month.
    Total snowfall at my site this winter is up to 136 cm, but only 19.6 cm over the past 2 months. Current snowdepth as of this evening is down to 7 cm, but we'll see how much tomorrow's system adds to the total.

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