Warm and muggy weather for Canada Day..

Things will be getting noticeably warmer and more humid in southern MB Thursday ahead of a weak area of low pressure moving in from southern Saskatchewan. In advance of the warm air, there is a chance of some thunderstorms over southern MB tonight into Thursday morning with some warm frontal elevated convection that is expected to fire up tonight. Most of this activity however is expected to push through the Interlake. Then we should get a break in precipitation through much of the day, with conditions getting noticably more warm and humid by the afternoon as temperatures climb towards the 30C mark in Winnipeg, and dewpoints near 20C.. giving humidex values of 35-38C. This will be the warmest day of the year so far for us so be prepared for warm and muggy weather for Canada Day activities since we haven't acclimatized to it yet this year. Additional thunderstorms are possible by late afternoon/evening as a weak trough pushes through that could trigger some locally heavy thunderstorms given the muggy conditions. All in all.. a summerlike start to July!

Thunderstorms developing this afternoon/evening.. locally severe storms possible

Showers and scattered thunderstorms have developed across western MB this morning and this activity is expected to spread east into the Red River valley this afternoon into this evening. Due to the warm and humid conditions today, some thunderstorms may be severe with very heavy downpours, large hail and strong wind gusts. As a result, a severe thunderstorm watch is in effect for all of southern Manitoba for today. Stay tuned..

Severe thunderstorms possible over southern MB this afternoon/evening..

Severe thunderstorms are possible this afternoon and evening across southern MB as an upper level disturbance tracks into southwest MB tapping an unstable airmass over the area. Strong to severe thunderstorms are expected to develop across SW Manitoba this afternoon and push eastward into the Red River valley later this afternoon and into SE Manitoba this evening. The strongest thunderstorms will be capable of producing large hail of 2 to 3 cm in diameter, torrential downpours of 25-50 mm/hr, and damaging wind gusts of 90 km/h or more. In addition, conditions are favourable for some storms to produce funnel clouds and/or tornadoes.. similar to what was reported in southern SK Monday afternoon. Stay tuned on this developing situation..

Welcome to Summer 2010!.. pass the umbrella and bug spray!

It’s the first official day of summer today.. but the weather this week doesn’t appear to be changing much from the unsettled pattern of the past few weeks. An active jet stream across the northern US is carrying occasional waves of energy from the west that are spawning periodic showers and thunderstorms across southern MB.. including today and Tuesday. For today, an area of showers and thunderstorms over northern North Dakota has drifted north into the Red River valley, bringing another round of rainfall to southern MB.. something we don’t need. Rainfall amounts of 15-25 mm have been recorded along the US border this morning with heavier amounts over northern ND. These showers have been weakening this morning, but local amounts of 5-15 mm are possible across the RRV and southeast MB today. Another impulse is forecast to move across southern MB Tuesday triggering more showers and thunderstorms.. with locally heavy rain likely again. This is unwelcome news for the southern Prairies which is struggling with saturated soil conditions and high water levels thanks to an exceptionally wet May and June so far that have seen some very heavy rainstorms at times.

So what kind of summer should we expect this year? According to NOAA’s Climatic Prediction Center, odds favour a cooler and wetter than normal summer this year over the Northern Plains (and southern Prairies). NWS Grand Forks’ summer outlook for the Red River valley calls for a warmer and drier finish to the summer after a cool and wet start. With all the ground moisture out there, odds would favour a wetter summer since soil moisture is such a critical factor in the development of convective precipitation over the Prairies (drought begets drought, likewise rain begets rain). Whatever the case, after last year’s cool wet summer, residents of southern MB are hoping this summer turns around soon from it’s less than ideal start.

Friday washout to give way to better weekend..

Cool wet and windy weather today will give way to improving conditions for the weekend as a major storm system over southern MB gradually pulls away into Northern Ontario. The system brought heavy rains across portions of western MB, southern SK, and southern AB where over 100 mm of rainfall was recorded over the past 2 days. Further south, the system triggered one of the worst tornado outbreaks over the Northern Plains in years with over 20 tornadoes reported across North Dakota and Minnesota yesterday afternoon, resulting in extensive damage and at least 3 fatalities. Winnipeg and the Red River valley of southern MB generally escaped the worst of this system with minimal rainfall, and little in the way of severe weather. The weekend should be a lot better weatherwise over southern MB with a mix of sun and cloud, although models indicate a slight chance of showers or thunderstorms Sunday with some weak instability moving across the area.

Developing storm system threatens showers and thunderstorms Thursday into Friday..

A weak system over North Dakota will circulate cloud and a few showers over southeast MB tonight into Tuesday. Most of the shower activity should stay southeast of Winnipeg, although generally cloudy skies will prevail over the Red River valley. Of greater concern is the expected evolution of a stronger storm system over the western US that threatens to bring more widespread showers and thunderstorms to southern Manitoba by Thursday into Friday. This storm system is expected to move over western North Dakota on Wednesday pushing an increasingly warm and humid airmass over southern MB by Thursday. This will likely trigger scattered thunderstorm activity with locally heavy rain possible. Additional showers and thunderstorms are expected Thursday night into Friday over southern MB with areas of heavy rain likely, especially over western MB into the Interlake regions where local rainfall amounts of 40 to 70 mm are possible. This system will bear close watching as soils are saturated across many areas of southern MB and southern SK, and any additional heavy rain will result in more problems for agricultural and hydrological interests.

Better weather ahead

After days of cloudy skies and wet weather, it looks like things will finally be improving over southern Manitoba this weekend. A trough of low pressure over the Red River valley this morning will slowly track eastward today, bringing a flow of somewhat drier air into southern MB through the weekend. Some breaks in the cloud cover today will give way to more sunshine Sunday, with temperatures finally rebounding to normal values. Sunshine and warm temperatures are expected through early next week before more unsettled weather moves in by mid to late week. The month of June has been anything but summerlike over southern MB with generally cloudy cool and damp conditions becoming an increasing concern for the agricultural and recreational sectors.

Thunderstorms possible this afternoon/evening

Showers are moving through the Red River valley this morning ahead of a low pressure system crossing southern Manitoba. The rain will move out this morning with some partial clearing developing from the west this afternoon helping to get temperatures into the low 20s. This will result in an increasingly unstable airmass over the Red River valley this afternoon with scattered thunderstorms developing as a cold front pushes in from the west. Some of the storms may be strong with heavy downpours and hail. Storms will move east of the region this evening with cooler conditions forecast for Wednesday.

More rain on the way Thursday night into Friday..

More rain is on the way for southern Manitoba Thursday into Friday as a trough of low pressure moves in from the west. Showers and isolated thunderstorms are expected to push into southwest MB Thursday morning reaching the Red River valley by evening. Showers will move across the Red River valley Thursday night into Friday morning with the chance of some isolated thunderstorms. Current indications show about 5-15 mm of rainfall over the Red River valley, although locally higher amounts of 15-25 mm are possible in thunderstorms. At this point, the best chance for thunderstorms and heavier rain will be south of the border through the Dakotas, and also through western Interlake areas. Hopefully the heaviest rain with this system will miss Winnipeg and the Red River valley which is saturated from heavy rains over the past weekend.