Thursday, July 29, 2010

A look ahead..

A weak disturbance over the Dakotas will bring increasing clouds today across the RRV with scattered showers developing later today into tonight along with a risk of a thunderstorm. The unsettled weather will linger into Friday before drier conditions move in Saturday. Sunday looks like a potentially stormy day with a system passing through the Dakotas possibly bringing some heavier thunderstorms over southern MB, especially by Sunday night. The active weather should move out Monday as we close out the holiday weekend. The warmest days are expected to be Saturday and Sunday with highs approaching the 30 degree mark once again.

41 comments:

  1. Effective today, my weather station is back online. Note that my new station location is not the most ideal, as the wind is sheltered from most directions in my backyard. As a result, my temperature readings are about 1-2C too high, especially through the morning and midday when the station gets the most direct sun. This location will have to do for now, and if results are not satisfactory, I will try to find a more suitable location.

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  2. By the way, Moscow hit an all time high of 37.8C today, hottest ever in 120 years of records there (previous to this month, Moscow's hottest day was 36.8C back in 1920.) Today was their 8th day in a row with temperatures of 35C or higher. Amazing.

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  3. According to the National weather service in Grand Forks it looks like we could be heading into a active period with many thunderstorm chances!!!

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  4. Hello - this is somewhat off topic, but I was wondering if you had any info on a particularly spectacular and memorable thunderstorm that struck Winnipeg on the night of July 16th, 2005. My memory may have suffered after five years, but as I recall it struck at around 11:30 pm or so, and it persisted past midnight. I think another severe storm hit at around 1 am. I'm interested in both events, as they were basically part of the same system.

    Any weather summaries, wind gust estimates, or anything at all will be helpful. I'm wondering if it was an MCS with a supercell in front of it? Basically any info at all on the storm... Hope you know which one I'm talking about. :P

    I'm no weather expert or anything - I just want to gain a better understanding of Winnipeg's weather history.

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  5. Anonymous,

    Have you looked at the climate archives on Weatheroffice?

    Here's for the 16th...

    http://www.climate.weatheroffice.gc.ca/climateData/hourlydata_e.html?timeframe=1&Prov=CA&StationID=3698&Year=2005&Month=7&Day=16

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  6. Anonymous.. your memory is pretty good. Winnipeg was indeed hit by two severe thunderstorms the night of July 16 2005. The first one hammered the south end of the city with over 100 mm of rain in one hour between 11:30 pm and 12:30 am in St Vital and Ft Richmond, with major flooding. Half an hour later around 1 am, another storm blew through the city causing widespread wind damage over the north end, with a peak wind gust of 111 km/h at Winnipeg airport. I remember that event well.. as I was working that night shift!

    For information on past weather events in Winnipeg and southern MB over the past 10 years, you can access my "past weather" link for all sorts of historical weather data (click on my name for link). On my blog page, click on "Rob's Obs - past monthly summaries" and it will take you to my archive page. Scroll down the page and you will see weather data and summaries back to 2001 when I started my site. You can also access this site from my main web site drop down menu, under STATS>>PAST DATA. Hope that helps..

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  7. Quite the discrepancy between the NAM and the Canadian GLB regarding Sunday's weather. NAM shows potential for elevated convection across southern MB Sunday as a low tracks through the Dakotas. GLB is much drier with main activity further south of the border and weak ridging over southern MB. 12Z GEM now shows a convective complex along the ND-MB border Sunday morning with a 50 mm bullseye near Pilot Mound (likely due to warm frontal thunderstorms). I suspect that straight "sunny" forecast for Sunday is going to trend to something a little more pessimistic over the next issue or two..

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  8. Rob!

    How is Sunday night looking now for thunderstorms???

    The SPC has a slight risk for severe storms for areas of North Dakota!!!

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  9. Thanks Rob and Buffalo Seven. :) I actually emailed Environment Canada and they were kind enough to send me some figures and a written weather summary of the event.

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  10. Things are getting very active out there!!!

    Looks to be a long night for Environment Canada!!!

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  11. Looks like Winnipeg is set to get some strong thunderstorms this morning!!

    Especially the south side of the city!!

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  12. Yep.. south end of the city getting the worst of it again this morning with a west-east training line of thunderstorms.. only 5 mm at my place in Charleswood as of 9:20 am.. but 25 mm in Whyte Ridge, most of it in the past hour.

    So much for a "sunny" Sunday.

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  13. HI Rob!

    A little weather information you might find interesting!

    This past month in July Las Vegas has had EVERY day at or over 100 F!

    All 31 days!!! Amazing!
    I know you were commenting on Moscow a few days back and now it seems many locations had a horrible heat waves this summer!

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  14. July 2010 was the hottest month on record at Las Vegas. But they have recorded 31 days of triple digit highs before, at least 4 other times in July and 4 times in August.

    It seems like many places around the world are getting bouts of severe heat this year.. but not us. There have been at least 14 countries that have broken all time high temperatures this year, mostly through the Middle East, Russia and southern Asia. (Click on my name for more details on this from Jeff Masters) It makes me wonder if the global pattern will bring some severe heat over us over the next few years.. I think we're due.

    Looking at the long range, GFS is showing some nice heat building over us by next weekend into the middle of August. We'll see if that pans out, or if the heat will be suppressed south of us again as has been the case most of the summer.

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  15. Well looks like southern Manitoba will join the party as far as extreme heat goes starting next weekend and will likely be an extended period of 10+ days with temperatures soaring into the mid to upper 30's with humidex values in the mid to upper 40's. Subtropical ridge shifts northward with 850 mb temps in the mid to upper 20's. Wouldn't be surprised to see surface temperatures near 40 in mid August here with mid 40's in the northern US and intermountain regions.

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  16. The thought of Winnipeg hitting 40C is an intriguing one, but history shows it will be a tough mark to achieve.. especially with such high surface moisture conditions across the Prairies this year. In 128 years of records, Winnipeg has hit 40C only three times, once in August 1949 (40.6C), and twice during the granddaddy of all heat waves in July 1936 (41.1 and 42.2C). So we haven't seen a 40C here in over 60 years, and that includes the hot drought years of 1961 and 1988 when 40C temperatures would have been easiest to attain due to dry soil conditions. For Winnipeg to hit 40C, we'd have to get 850 temps around 30C with a southwest flow, and low humidity (dewpoints below 15C) It's certainly possible if that southwest ridge expands north and the heat is allowed to build for a few days, but again.. history shows that 40C is an elusive mark for Winnipeg. That being said though I'd love to see it happen as it'd be quite the historical mark, and I could say I experienced -40C and +40C in the same place..

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  17. What is the main threats of sever storms gonna be if winipeg gets hit by one? are they going to be severe? any toronado risk? ect? thanks

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  18. Main threat will be heavy rain, large hail and damaging winds as low level shear is fairly weak for supercells. Storms have dumped 20-40 mm of rain over portions of SW MB and are moving east. I suspect they will weaken by the time they get to Winnipeg, but we could have some good downpours and some decent lightning. I'm thinking the 30% chance of showers or thunderstorms for Winnipeg tonight is too low given the activity to our west.

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  19. USA Today News Friday indicated July the hottest on record for the contiguous 48. (would be if NW didn't cool off )

    Any confirmation of that?

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  20. Massive downpour here is St James!!!

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  21. Rob!

    34 mm of rain on the first day of the new month!!

    Not a bad start!!! LOL

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  22. yeah, 25 mm of that since 9:30 pm. Whyte Ridge has also picked up another 25 mm this evening on top of the 33 mm this morning for a whopping total of 58 mm today! (and still raining!)

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  23. NWS GFK has a tornado warning out for Dunseith and Bottineau.

    AT 947 PM CDT...LOCAL LAW ENFORCEMENT REPORTED A TORNADO. THIS
    TORNADO WAS LOCATED 10 MILES SOUTHEAST OF DUNSEITH...OR 26 MILES EAST
    OF BOTTINEAU...MOVING SOUTHEAST AT 25 MPH.

    Is this the same storm that just moved thru Boissivein, Deloraine and Killarney?

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  24. Does anyone have any more info on the tornado at Dunseith? This is very close to the International Peace Gardens where there is a large camp.

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  25. mommabear..

    According to the US national weather service, there was a tornado observed on the ground for 5 minutes near Dunseith.. no apparent damage or injuries reported so I suspect it was just over a rural area for a brief time. I haven't heard of anything severe from the Peace Gardens area, although they did get quite a heavy thunderstorm in the area last evening with 48 mm of rain reported at Bottineau. I'm sure if there was anything more severe, we would have heard something by now..

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  26. Severe thunderstorm watch again for all of southern Manitoba!!!

    If we get another Massive downpour tonight then some areas could be in some big trouble with flash flooding!!!

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  27. I'm heading out to my relative's farm near Roland/Kane/Lowe Farm area today. Is the severe weather risk greater for today there, or in Winnipeg?

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  28. Jon!

    I would say that the severe weather threat is greater out there in western Manitoba as there could be discrete storms as opposed to a storm complex by the time it gets to Red River Valley!!

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  29. Hey, does anybody know why PASPC hasn't updated the FOCN45 this afternoon? They usually update it at 7am and 2pm CDT.

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  30. I wonder if the severe storm will hold together to give south Winnipeg some hail and strong winds?????

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  31. The first time I have ever seen Environment Canada give estimated time of arrival for storms in the City of Winnipeg!!!

    Neat!!

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  32. I'm currently on Hwy. 75 heading north into the city soon (around St Adolphe) and I can see the severe storm just to the west. Black black clouds and numerous CG lightning strikes.

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  33. Impressive shelf cloud moving into Winnipeg from the west.. illuminated by cloud to cloud and cloud to ground lightning. Could see some strong wind gusts soon..

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  34. I'm slightly further up north (further northwards than along Portage) right now, with only an eastwards POV of outside. Nothing too interesting here, but all I'm seeing is just illuminated cloud-to-cloud strikes, mainly off to the south. Only one rumble I've heard as of now, and I don't think there will be nothing too much in terms of gusts, hail, and the downpours.

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  35. Yea rob I can confirm strong winds! Just entering the city when the huge shelf came over us, and winds were rocking the van. Heavy heavy rains here on the South Perimiter Hwy, and impressive lightning. VERY loud thunder!

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  36. oops...last post was by me (jon) not anonymous. forgot to type in my name.

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  37. Winds have also picked up here, but not too terrible, just some trees swaying, but that's about it.

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  38. It looked like a hurricane here in St James for a few minutes!!!

    Small branches down here!!!

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  39. Same here.. strong winds moved in at my place in Charleswood around 9:40 pm.. estimating peak gusts of about 70-80 km/h or so. I see the airport is showing a peak gust of only 27 kt (50 km/h) so the strongest winds are occurring mainly southern part of the city. Not much rain.. only about 2 mm so far.. but a nice little storm.

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  40. just got home, still pouring here in St. Vital.

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  41. Any thoughts on the upcoming pattern?

    It looks like it will be fairly calm until the weekend when the Pac NW trough sends out some more energy.

    Models are showing the Central US ridge building north in the extended.

    That would put us in a good spot for strong convection.

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