Tuesday, April 06, 2010
The week ahead
Dry mild weather is on tap over southern Manitoba for the week ahead with generally sunny skies and above normal temperatures. Increasing southerly winds are expected late in the week as a strong storm system pushes across northern Alberta by Friday. That system has the potential to bring heavy snow across northern Alberta before it weakens as it moves into northern Manitoba over the weekend. The next threat of precipitation over southern Manitoba will be early next week as low pressure develops over the western US and moves into the Dakotas.
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✷✷✷✷✷✷✷✷✷✷✷✷!!!!
ReplyDeleteDread, glee, doubt, and disbelief are all emotions I routinely attribute to the weekends forecast
Especially when the words hot, sunny, mild, system, snow, winds, rain, or cold are included.
Especially in spring and summer.
Especially, when they are connected to my plans for golf next weekend.
So I caught my breath (too late for the expletive utterance) when a quick read of Robs Long Awaited New Post mentioned
Increasing southerly winds are expected late in the week as a strong storm system pushes across northern Alberta......... by Friday. That system has the potential to bring heavy snow across northern Alberta before it ✣✻✳✴✺ as it moves into ❆o❊thern Manitoba over the weekend.
✷✷✷✷✷✷✷✷✷✷✷✷!!!! My best expletive was wasted.
Oh well my golf game needs work too.
Finding my stray golf balls with these eyes will be a challenge this year
Hi Rob!
ReplyDeleteIt sounds like you had fun on your holiday!
Hopefully thunderstorm season will be fast approaching!
It already fairly close to home in Iowa and Illinois tonight!
Anonymous.. LOL! Don't worry.. weather looks good for your golf game this weekend.. unless you're golfing in Fort McMurray!
ReplyDeleteShould be nice this weekend for Tiger's return to the Master's as well..
For those torn between Global Warming and Cooling here's Icelandic evidence of something.
ReplyDeleteCold kills two tourists near erupting volcano
Vulcanologists, or ROB, has there been any further analysis of a potential massive blow similar to the Laki volcano eruption in 1783,Iceland volcano could have world weather consequences.
The latest run of the GFS is showing almost three inches (75mm) of rain for a portion of southern Manitoba. That is the last thing we need...especially at this time of year.
ReplyDeleteLatest ensembles give a 50% chance of at least 15 mm of rain in Winnipeg between Monday and Wednesday, with a 25% chance of at least 30 mm. It all depends on how this next low tracks, but it appears that the models are hinting at localized heavy rain with embedded convection (which they often overdo at long range). Luckily we've been quite dry for some time, so we should be able to handle some rain, as long as it's not too heavy too fast.
ReplyDeleteNasty system shaping up tonight into Friday for northeast AB and western SK. Models indicating strong winds and heavy snow especially along AB/SK border from Lloydminster north. Winter storm watch out for northwest SK but I'd be surprised if NE Alberta wasn't included in a watch or warning soon. Even Edmonton could see some snow tonight!
Rob!
ReplyDeleteAny chance of a thunderstorm with next weeks storm system or is that completely out of the question????
There is a chance of some elevated thunderstorms next week ahead of a warm front that will lie across the Dakotas.. but that will depend on the strength of the low level jet and the amount of moisture that can be advected north. But the setup is there..
ReplyDeleteCheck out Calgary this evening.. they were +10C a couple hours ago.. now -1C with 3 cm of snow and blowing snow with reduced visibility. That's going to cause some travel problems!
My wife got a message from a coworker in Calgary.. he's stuck at the airport due to blizzard conditions and power outages. Flights are being delayed or cancelled. Winds gusting to 95 km/h there!
ReplyDeleteLooks like Alberta is really getting slammed this evening!!!
ReplyDeleteHave the March stats been released yet? Where did it rank in terms of mildest on record?
ReplyDeleteI've been listening to the Red Deer EMS on my ipod scanner app.. sounds like they have their hands full with jack-knifed trailers and cars in the ditches. Real mess out there with the wet snow, freezing temperatures and high winds..
ReplyDeleteMarch ended up as the 5th mildest March since 1872 in Winnipeg with a monthly mean of -0.6C. Mildest since 2000 (-0.1c) Click on my name for March climate summary..
ReplyDeleteROB
ReplyDeleteNWS has a Red Flag Warning for all of Western North Dakota.. High winds Low Humidity Combo...
Is there an EC Equivalent?
Saskatchewan has a Snow/Wind warning and Eastern Saskatchewan a Wind only. (on my name)
ReplyDeleteWill that be extended into SW Manitoba later today?
Has next week's storm threat diminished with the latest model run? According to EC/TWN Monday and Tuesday now show sun with a chance of showers on Wednesday...
ReplyDeleteJim..
ReplyDeleteNo, EC does not have an equivalent red flag warning for low humidities and strong wind situations.
CS..
ReplyDeleteModels have slowed down the next system and are taking a more western track. This delays our precipitation threat until Tuesday night into Wednesday and puts more significant pcpn over SK and AB. For now anyways.. we'll see how the models evolve this system over the next few days..
Rob, are you still thinking of the chance of thunderstorms next week or did the storm track change? I'm already getting impatient for thunderstorms!!!
ReplyDeleteTodays Free Press humor Humorist Doug Speirs has a complete forecast for next week in todays P2 columnYOUR WEEKEND weather
ReplyDeleteMr Farms..
ReplyDeleteTuesday into Wednesday looks like a potential for showers and some embedded thunderstorms to push into southern MB. Models are showing a developing storm system over the western US with a good push of warm moist air over the Dakotas. This may generate some showers and scattered thunderstorms which could push into southern MB.
It's still early in the year for thunderstorms for us though. We need to get more moisture working north from the southern Plains to start fuelling that thunderstorm potential. This happens more in May and especially June. After a coupe of fairly quiet years for us severe weather wise, we'll see if this year is more active for thunderstorms.
High based convection this afternoon with unstable airmass and very dry air in the low levels (22 degree T/TD spreads with sub 20% RH). Lots of virga around as airmass dries up precipitation before it reaches the ground, generating some gusty downdraft winds with gusts to 65 km/h at the airport past half hour. This will be the case through the afternoon before things dissipate this evening as we lose the daytime heating.
ReplyDeleteRob!
ReplyDeleteLooks like April is running well above normal so far!
If this keeps up it could be one for the record books!
Hi
ReplyDeleteRegarding Jim's post about a Red Flag Warning. This is something issued for the fire weather community. After snow melt and before green-up the U.S. Fish and Wildlife Agency in North Dakota and the Department of Natural Resources in Minnesota do a lot of prescribed burns in areas of natural wildlife habitat. They do this to burn off old vegetation in order to encourge new growth. By law they must get what we call a Fire Weather Spot forecast from the local NWS office. This is a forecast of specific temperature/humidity/wind/mixing layer and height for that location.
Now...each state fire weather officials have what is called critical fire weather conditions for which any fires started could grow quickly and dangerously. Spot burns are not done in these conditions. For ND...you need very high grassland fire danger conditions....plus relative humidity of less than 20 percent and usually wind speeds more than 25 mph. Many communities often use red flag warnings to post local fire burning bans.
Thanks for the explanation Dan.. Wise particularly if you have ever been involved with prairie spring fires on a day like today.
ReplyDeleteHey Rob,
ReplyDeleteAre we even going to get much from this system here in Winnipeg anymore? Just a few showers? Just doesn't look too impressive for us anymore I find. Or am I wrong?
Latest NAM run shows basically no precipitation for areas east of Brandon. I hope this is the case, we don't need another wet Spring.
ReplyDeleteGEM indicating the possibility of some heavy rain mainly through the Interlake into western MB Monday night into Tuesday as this storm system winds up, with a strong southerly jet advecting warm moist air ahead of a warm front across the Dakotas. This results in elevated convection (riding over the warm front) which can lead to some locally heavy rain depending on where the low level jet sets up and the depth of the moisture advecting in. (18z GEM showing a 38 mm bullseye over Lake Manitoba area by midday Tuesday) I would say the potential is still there for Winnipeg to see some showers and perhaps a tstm Monday night into Tuesday.. but at this point models are pointing to heaviest rain falling north and west of Winnipeg.
ReplyDeleteGEM also indicating very warm air to sweep in over southern RRV and SE MB with temps in the low to mid 20s possible south of the warm front. What a difference a year makes. Last year, Winnipeg hit 10C on this date, our first double digit high of the year, and there was still snow on the ground. This year, we've hit double digits at least 13 times already.
60 cm of snow in Ft McMurray AB over the weekend.. Some impressive photos from the Weather Network website (click on my name)
ReplyDeleteRob!
ReplyDeleteSPC has a 5% chance of severe storms for North Dakota tomorrow!
Maybe some storms could drift over the border!
Latest GEM run shifts best precip potential a little further west over SW MB and SE SK overnight Monday into Tuesday morning... along axis of 50-60 kt 850 mb jet and 10C dewpoint moisture plume. Note however that the potential is there for anyone in southern MB to see elevated thunderstorms Tuesday morning along and north of the warm front including Winnipeg. Latest GEM also giving Winnipeg a high of 21C on Tuesday as strong southeast flow pushes warm front north of RRV by the afternoon with temperatures approaching 25C near the ND border. This may be a bit extreme depending on how much cloud cover and shower activity we get, but potential is there for some very warm air to move in Tuesday.
ReplyDelete