The province has extended its burn ban to cover western and northwest parts of the province Tuesday, extending the ban that was issued for eastern and central areas on Monday. The dry sunny weather this month has left ground conditions very dry, and the risk of fires is growing with each sunny day. (see CBC story) Grass fires have been reported over parts of southern and eastern Manitoba, and the situation could get worse if high winds develop.
The City of Winnipeg has also issued a burn ban. Winnipeg fire officials said they are suspending open-air burning within city limits until further notice due to an "extremely high potential for fires to burn out of control." The city said it would not issue any permits for landowners to conduct burning on their properties. Officials promised to take legal action if anyone ignores the suspension. People using backyard fire pits are not affected by the city's edict, but are urged to use caution.
The prospects for rain are minimal across Manitoba into the weekend with no major weather systems expected to affect the province. There is a chance of some scattered showers or flurries over western and central areas over the weekend, but amounts are not excepted to be significant. The overall weather pattern looks dry through the end of the month which is not unusual for April since ground moisture and atmospheric humidity are quite low before vegetation starts leafing up in May.
I've noticed while coming back home today that almost all trees along the way had buds. So greening up soon =D
ReplyDeleteBy the way, thank you very much for the response to my comment earlier Rob.
All the tree at my house have leaves emerging. This is almost a month earlier than last year.
ReplyDeleteThis is one of the driest springs I have ever seen!!!
ReplyDeleteWe need some rain very soon around here!!
Rob!
ReplyDeleteI see Saturday and Sunday temperatures are back up into the mid teens!
Another wonderful weekend????
Not surprising to see the warmer temps back for the weekend.. the GLB model was already backpedalling on the cool air on yesterday's runs as per American and European guidance. This is the problem with using automated output from one model.. forecasts are subject to the day to day swings in solutions and can very greatly one day to the next. An ensemble approach (using a variety of model outputs) would show more consistency day to day (i.e. less volatility). The problem with ensembles is that they tend to be more conservative in their forecasts, which I don't see as a bad thing in a long range forecast, as long as forecasts trend in the right direction as you get closer to the day.
ReplyDeleteAs for this weekend, looks nice and dry for us again.. perhaps a little more cloud than recently, but still nice. System passing through the Interlake on Saturday will bring some pcpn through central MB as rain or wet snow, with a more active complex with showers and thunderstorms (some severe) south of us over the US plains/Mississippi valley. GLB hints at some showers moving over southwestern MB on Sunday as another impulse moves over southern SK, but models diverge on the eastern extent of this activity. Whatever the case, it appears at this point Winnipeg/RRV will stay dry through the weekend..
If you're a chaser and are interested in severe weather in the USA and Canada...check out the blog Dave and I started
ReplyDeleteClick my name to take you there.
Yesterday on CBC Radio One .. Up to Speed.. a guest (Mb Fire Commissioner?) mentioned one of the recent fires was started by Lightning.
ReplyDeleteWith so little active weather that's a scarily high Strikes/Fires success rate
Great stuff Justin. We'll be following your blog with interest. Will be interesting to see how the situation develops today and tomorrow down south (I see they've upgraded tomorrow to a moderate risk over Arkansas/Louisiana area).
ReplyDeleteIf you're into storms and storm chasing, I highly recommend following Justin and Dave's blog.. you'll learn a lot.
It's time to start speculating if we are approaching a record for warmth and dryness. I believe 1980 was a record, but might we be into uncharted territory with heat AND drought?
ReplyDeleteI like warmth as much as the next guy but with no precipitation, this isn't good.
As of today, Winnipeg has had about 10 mm of total precipitation this month, falling on the 2nd-3rd as rain and some wet snow. The airport shows a monthly total of 18 mm so far, but that amount is about double what it should be since an attached Nipher snow shield resulted in overrecording the amounts of the 2-3rd.
ReplyDeleteWhatever the case, that precip event puts us out of the top 10 driest Aprils in Winnipeg. There have been several Aprils with less than 10 mm precipitation with the driest ever in 1980 with only a trace for the whole month. In 2000, we had 4.4 mm in April. So dry Aprils are not that unusual around here, but it does get more unusual if the extreme dryness extends through May.
Driest spring ever in Winnipeg was in 1917 with only 15 mm total precipitation from March through May. 2nd driest spring was 1980 with 21 mm.
32 tornado reports today, mostly over eastern CO and western KS. Action shifts east tomorrow with best setup over eastern KS/OK through MO and AR. Be sure to follow Dave and Justin's blog to keep on top of all the action.. it's the next best thing to being there!
ReplyDeletethanks for the good words Rob.
ReplyDeleteTomorrow looks amazing!!!
WOW the risk in those states (LA,AR,MS) is looking very high for tornadoes. Watch out this aft./eve! But returning back home, look to be another dry, dry day but pretty warm. Do you guys think there will be precipitation this weekend through monday here in WPG?
ReplyDeleteForgot to mention, GREAT blog Justin very interesting and im sure ill be goin back there.
ReplyDeleteFYI.. Dave and Justin are EC meteorologists (Dave in Winnipeg, Justin in Edmonton but hails (pun!) from Oak Bluff) who are quite involved in severe storms and storm chasing. Their expertise and experience with severe summer weather is a valuable resource, so I welcome their input and discussion on their blog! Tornado watches out for Nebraska, as well as southern Mississippi valley. We'll see how things turn out this afternoon!
ReplyDeleteNice and toasty over southern MB today with our warmest day of the year so far, but the cool air is not far away.. with Gimli and Dauphin only in the 15C range today as they tap a cooler airmass to our north. Even cooler in SK with Regina at only 8C this afternoon. Once again looks like we'll dodge a bullet with pcpn moving to our west and north this weekend.. including snow through central SK and central MB!
ReplyDeleteMight we finally get some rain on thursday and friday next week? Either way, it will probably be a storm that will have to be watched over the next few days.
ReplyDeleteYou're right Jewels.. that system bears watching as it may be the best chance in a month of some much needed rain for us. European model is also suggesting a similar solution with a strong storm system moving into the Northern plains by the end of next week, with lots of overrunning showers and possible thunderstorms over southern MB. Still a ways off, but bears watching..
ReplyDeleteOf concern is the increasing winds next week before the system approaches.. which would elevate the fire risk over us given how dry it is.
Rob!
ReplyDeleteYou think Environment Canada will ever go the way that the National weather Service does when issuing weather warnings???
Issuing warning "boxes" instead of for the whole county or municipality.
daniel..
ReplyDeleteEC is looking towards that capability with a new workstation that is being installed in forecast offices. However, development of the software and dissemination capabilities are still a ways away before we can reach a point that the NWS is at with storm specific warnings. Ideally though, that's the way to go..