Wednesday, May 14, 2008
Have we turned the corner?
Gorgeous day out there.. first time this year it's felt almost summerlike. Sunshine and 20C temperatures along with increased humidity levels thanks to Monday's rainfall has made it feel like we may have finally turned the corner on a long stretch of below normal weather. Nice to see positive dewpoints now instead of those -5 to -10C values of the past few weeks. That will really help kick start that vegetation growth which has been hesistant to sprout so far this year (and rightly so!) This doesn't mean we will no longer have frost or cool weather.. (remember where we live after all!) however, this may finally be the start of the growing season we have been anxiously waiting for.
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About 5 or 6 weeks ago I recall taking my cat to my parent's home and sitting outside on the grass in +20 C weather like today's.
ReplyDeleteUnfortunately after that we went downhill and had two of those snowfalls.
I think we may have turned the corner, but it's still a tad early... wait until this time in June...
If the winds are still coming fromthe ENE, NE, or NW then we can definitively conclude that the Summer of '08 will be a CHILLY one.
There is some good convective activity going on out there today. Cloud tops are reaching upwards of 20,000 ft according to the RADAR. The first towering cumulus clouds of the season have appeared outside my house, and some weak convective thunderstorms have formed. I am interested to see what the cell over the Steinbach area has in it. The RADAR suggests that it will likely have a brief heavy downpour, and gusty winds.
ReplyDeleteThe temperature dropped a couple degrees as the clouds moved in, and the wind really picked up as well.
Turned the Corner...hmmm? Check out the GFSx Day 7 of next week (ModelRun as of 0000Z Friday). Can I say monster low? Snow??? It looks like a 2-3 day event. Rain I can handle...Snow? Definitely not!
ReplyDeleteI hate to admit it but there is snow in the long-range forecast. At this point I can't believe any forecast that is more than 5 days out, but this is a discouraging development. From looking at the GFS there would no doubt be a ton of moisture associated with that system. I think accumulating snow is unlikely, snow could certainly fall but the temperature probably won't go low enough to allow anything to stick to the warm ground.
ReplyDeleteEnough snow talk...I am really enjoying the 20+ temperatures these days. Three days in a row above 20, and I looks like there are more to come.
Brett Anderson just released his updated summer forecast...
ReplyDeleteHere is my favourite line:
In June...More thunderstorms compared to normal over Manitoba and northwestern Ontario.
It looks like we could be in for an excellent storm season this year. I was just looking at the WRF and there is a chance of a good, possibly even a "low end" severe storm on Monday evening. Wind shear and helicity are reasonable, the CAPE will be 500 to 1000J/kg, while the lifted index will be -1 to -5.
Rob...What are you and Environment Canada for that matter predicting for summer? What is a good CAPE, lifted index, and other severe value(s) for severe thunderstorms to form (minimal requirements)
Rob..how can one acurately predict the weather today for next month as in Scott's email...we seem to have trouble just predicting into the weekend never mind what type of summer we will be expecting. What are your thoughts? Personally I really dislike storms so less of them the better as far as I am concerned..although judging by the comments on some posts here I may be alone on that...lol
ReplyDeleteAs I mentioned in an earlier post, seasonal outlooks are always a crap-shoot. There are just too many variables and inter-dependencies that influence the outcome.. many of which we don't even know how they will develop yet. Summer outlooks for the Prairies can be especially difficult since so much of it rides on how much precipitation we get, which is mainly convectively driven, which depends a lot on soil moisture conditions and crop growth, etc. etc.. So it's extremely difficult if not impossible to say how active this summer may be.. Even correlations with other similar years/patterns doesn't give accurate predictions, so it's pretty much an unknown each spring what the summer will bring. But then, that's what makes it so interesting each year.. you never know what Mother Nature will have is store for us.
ReplyDeleteNote that last summer was our most active summer on record in the Prairies in terms of severe weather reports.. especially hail events. Odds would favour a less active summer this year, but again.. there's no guarantee for that. And it could vary from one region to another. As always, stay tuned!
Wow, looks like it's the warmest morning yet here in 2008, for me at least. The previous warmest temperature recorded at my house this year was 16.4 or so around 10 am, while it is now 17.1 here as of 9 am.
ReplyDeleteLooks like we're gonna pass 20 degrees.
Also, models still hinting at a huge rain event for southern Manitoba, with maybe a thunderstorm potential for southeastern Manitoba. Looks like active weather ahead after the next 5 days or so if models continue to verify.
There certainly is a big rain event in the forecast. Whether or not this actually verifies is always in question. There is still the potential for some snowfall across Western Manitoba during this event, but it looks like the Red River Valley and East will see only rain (according to the current GFS). Any snow that would fall would be unlikely to accumulate, because the soil is already warm, and the temperature would likely only fall below zero just before the snow started. Accumulations are forecast at between 60 and 80mm for the Steinbach area. It would be more like 50 to 70mm in Winnipeg, and down in Sprague convection could lead to totals up to 100mm! Of course these are just the current forecast predictions, but I really don't want that much rain. Some more moisture would be nice, but another 25mm would be plenty!
ReplyDeleteMan!
ReplyDeleteIs it ever windy out there!!
Whoa.....hold on to your hat wind gusts up to 74 km/h
Convective cells are developing in the interlake and heading directly to the SSE. Some of them seem to possibly move over the SE corner of the city here where I am, maybe a thundershower?
ReplyDeleteVaisala lightning explorer has detected a bit if lightning in SE Manitoba
Litening to thee wind this afternoon i wonder why the clowns at e.c. couldn't issue a wind warning. jr. forecasters on the long weekend again no doubt
ReplyDeleteAt Emerson the wind is sustained over 60km/h, in Winnipeg is hasn't reached 60km/h yet...
ReplyDeleteThe wind warning criteria is wind sustained at 60km/h for one hour, or gusting up to 90km/h for one hour. Technically the Morden - Winkler - Emerson region could have a wind warning, although that is the only region I see that has met the criteria thus far. I am not surprised that EC hasn't issued a warning, it is hard to keep track of every observation and the warning criteria isn't being met in a widespread fashion.
This is not to say that Winnipeg or other parts of Southern Manitoba won't meet the criteria today, but I believe EC is doing an excellent job! I am sure they will issue warnings if the higher wind speeds become more widespread.
Blowing dust and 80 km/h winds in Emerson!!!!
ReplyDeleteA few of those cells rolled through St.Andrews early this afternoon. We got some moderate rain and even some hail with one of the stronger cells.
ReplyDeleteWind Warnings now for the Southern Red River Valley.
ReplyDeleteThe prospects of severe thunderstorms in South-Eastern Manitoba got a good boost today. The WRF is now predicting the CAPE will be between 500 and 1500 J/kg over South-Eastern Manitoba on Monday evening. Dewpoints of 10 to 13 degrees, along with daytime heating will give thunderstorms a real shot. A cold front will pass through, which will likely be the trigger for thunderstorms. Wind shear is marginal, and I doubt tornadoes will have much of a chance. The GFS shows lifted indexes as high as -5 in extreme South-Eastern Manitoba.
ReplyDeleteThis event is going to be interesting, judging by the current forecasts most of Southern Manitoba should see some thunderstorms, but how strong is still in question.
P.S. My anemometer is only reading gusts up to 50km/h. although the Steinbach airport has read gusts up to 70km/h.
Wow, severe thunderstorm warnings in effect in SW Saskatchewan:
ReplyDeleteR.M. OF BONE CREEK INCLUDING SIMMIE AND SCOTSGUARD
10:42 PM CST SUNDAY 18 MAY 2008
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR
R.M. OF BONE CREEK INCLUDING SIMMIE AND SCOTSGUARD CONTINUED
Persons in or near this area should be on the lookout for adverse weather conditions and take necessary safety precautions. Watch for updated statements.
Please refer to the latest public forecasts for further details and continue to monitor the situation through your local radio and television stations or Weatheradio.
R.M. OF VAL MARIE INCLUDING VAL MARIE, ORKNEY AND MONCHY
10:42 PM CST SUNDAY 18 MAY 2008
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR
R.M. OF VAL MARIE INCLUDING VAL MARIE, ORKNEY AND MONCHY ISSUED
Persons in or near this area should be on the lookout for adverse weather conditions and take necessary safety precautions. Watch for updated statements.
Please refer to the latest public forecasts for further details and continue to monitor the situation through your local radio and television stations or Weatheradio.
R.M. OF GRASSY CREEK INCLUDING SHAUNAVON
10:42 PM CST SUNDAY 18 MAY 2008
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR
R.M. OF GRASSY CREEK INCLUDING SHAUNAVON CONTINUED
Persons in or near this area should be on the lookout for adverse weather conditions and take necessary safety precautions. Watch for updated statements.
Please refer to the latest public forecasts for further details and continue to monitor the situation through your local radio and television stations or Weatheradio.
R.M. OF WISE CREEK INCLUDING CADILLAC AND ADMIRAL
10:42 PM CST SUNDAY 18 MAY 2008
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR
R.M. OF WISE CREEK INCLUDING CADILLAC AND ADMIRAL ISSUED
Persons in or near this area should be on the lookout for adverse weather conditions and take necessary safety precautions. Watch for updated statements.
Please refer to the latest public forecasts for further details and continue to monitor the situation through your local radio and television stations or Weatheradio.
R.M. OF ARLINGTON INCLUDING DOLLARD
10:42 PM CST SUNDAY 18 MAY 2008
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR
R.M. OF ARLINGTON INCLUDING DOLLARD ENDED
First of the prairies this year it seems!
EC issued a frost warning for Winnipeg for Wednesday morning...Lows to -3 Celcius.
ReplyDeleteBut no snow expected.
It's nice to see lots of the trees have mostly budded, but there's still a long way to go until we see the full canopy.