Tuesday, March 06, 2007
+7C on Thursday? Don't count on it...
I see exceptionally mild temperatures are still forecast for Thursday, with a forecast high of +7C (up from +4C yesterday) While milder temperatures are likely for Thursday, highs of +7C are overly optimistic given that there's still 30 to 60 cm of snow on the ground throughout Southern MB and SK, and northern ND which will cool any warm sector crossing Southern MB. Looking at Thursday, the setup for an exceptionally warm day is unimpressive. A low pressure trough is forecast to lie across the MB/SK border by late Thursday, putting southern MB in a southerly flow. Southerly flows are not conducive to rapid warming in the Red River valley, especially with extensive snow cover. The best setup for warm wintertime temperatures in Winnipeg is with a westerly flow tapping milder air from southern SK and southern AB. This is not likely on Thursday. As a result, temperatures on Thursday in Winnipeg will likely only struggle up to the freezing mark, or maybe +1 or +2C at best. (Note that Accuweather and Weather Network are forecasting highs on Thursday of zero and +2C respectively. Even Grand Forks is calling for highs only around zero) I suppose with sunshine and light winds, it may FEEL like +7C, but the actual air temperature will be several degrees colder. So don't be surprised to see that forecast high of +7c drop significantly over the next day or so. (recall that for February 18th, the forecast high of +4C in the long range forecast was eventually scaled back to a high of -7C!)
Posted by rob at 9:53 AM