Milder weather by weekend??

After a brief respite today and tomorrow, frigid Arctic air is poised to return to southern MB by Wednesday which will persist into the end of the week. The good news is that long range models are finally indicating a pattern shift towards milder weather developing over southern MB this weekend continuing into next week.  The transition to the milder temperatures will be marked by strong southerly winds developing ahead of the warmer air mass Friday night into Saturday, along with a threat of accumulating snow. This may produce a period of poor visibilities in snow and blowing snow before things improve by Saturday afternoon or evening. Temperatures are then expected to average closer to normal values much of next week, with "normal" highs now rising towards the -8C mark. Let's hope so.. I'm getting tired of this cold weather!       

Weather Update

Blizzard conditions have improved quickly this morning across much of southern MB, however blowing and drifting snow remains a problem in open areas.. with poor highway conditions reported across many MB highways. Highway 75 and the TransCanada remain closed this morning while travel is not advised on many other routes.

Here in Winnipeg, we got about 2 cm of new snow last night.. with the airport reporting blizzard conditions for a couple of hours overnight. Looks like the southern Red River valley received the worst of this system with Emerson reporting gusts to 80 km/h and zero visibility for a few hours early this morning.

Attention now turns to windchill today as those gusty northwest winds will continue all day while temperatures remain in the mid minus 20s.. resulting in extreme windchill values of -40 to -45. Frostbite is possible within 10 minutes of exposure in conditions like these. Bad timing for anyone planning outdoor activities today, including the folks down in Winkler for the CBC hockey tournament. But then I'm sure Grapes will be saying this is good Canadian hockey weather that toughens up our kids!

Blizzard conditions likely overnight through Saturday morning

A blizzard warning has been issued for the Red River Valley including Winnipeg due to the expected development of highs winds and poor visibilities in blowing snow overnight into Saturday. An Arctic cold front marking the leading edge of much colder air pushing into AB and western SK this afternoon will push eastward into southern MB tonight. The front is expected to move into southwest MB this evening, reaching Winnipeg around 3 am or so.  The front will be accompanied by a band of snow, lasting 3 or 4 hours, giving possible snowfall accumulations of 2 to 5 cm tonight. Although there will not be a lot of new snow with this system, strong northwest winds of 50 to 70 km/h developing behind the front will create widespread poor visibilities in blowing snow. Blizzard conditions will result for several hours tonight into Saturday morning with visibilities of 400 meters or less especially in open areas. The extent and duration of blizzard conditions will depend on how much new snow falls tonight, but at this point enough loose snow is expected to warrant a blizzard warning. Conditions should gradually improve Saturday as the snow tapers off, however strong northwest winds gusting to 70 km/h will persist through the day giving extreme windchill values of minus 40 to minus 45 through the day. In addition, blowing and drifting snow will still be a problem is open areas outside the city. As a result, expect poor traveling conditions throughout the Red River valley on Saturday with possible road closures.  Note that a similar situation to this system on the night of January 28th-29th resulted in several highway closures over southern MB including the TransCanada and Highway 75.  Only a trace to 1 cm of new snow fell with that system.       

To emphasize, this will not be a paralyzing blizzard with lots of deep snow. Rather it will be a storm bringing high winds, sharply colder temperatures and enough new snow that will give blizzard conditions for several hours tonight into Saturday morning, especially in open areas outside the city. 

Another Arctic blast this weekend..

Another blast of Arctic air will be flooding into Southern Manitoba, unfortunately just in time for the weekend. A strong Arctic high over the Yukon will build southward into the Prairies on Friday, driving frigid air across Alberta and Saskatchewan. Strong northwest winds will push the leading edge of this Arctic airmass into southwestern MB late Friday reaching Winnipeg and the Red River valley Friday night. The cold front will be accompanied by some light snow with 1-2 cm possible Friday night. The strong northwest winds and falling temperatures will combine with any loose snow to give extensive drifting and blowing snow Friday night into early Saturday morning, with poor visibilities likely in open areas. This situation is similar to one early last week that brought a few hours of blizzard conditions to southern MB, and led to numerous highway closures. The extent and duration of poor visibilities will be determined by the amount of new snow, if any, that falls Friday night. Note that poor visibilities in blowing snow will be widespread across southern SK Friday as the cold air and strong winds move in.

Conditions will be improving across the Red River valley for Saturday with clearing skies, however brisk northwest winds and cold temperatures will produce high windchill values. Sunday will see lighter winds and below normal temperatures under the Arctic ridge. Temperatures are expected to slowly moderate next week as the Arctic airmass moves east allowing periodic clipper systems to move across the Prairies.

January 2008 climate summary

Mild first half.. Cold second half.. Little snow overall. (Click here for detailed stats from my station)

The predominant feature of January 2008 in Winnipeg was the lack of precipitation. Only about 4 cm of snow was recorded for the month in Winnipeg, the lowest January snowfall here since 1973 (2.8 cm) and the 4th lowest January snowfall since records began in 1873. The only other precipitation for the month was a brief freezing rain event on the 6th that left about 1 mm of ice making for slippery conditions on city streets and sidewalks. In total, the 5 mm of precipitation at the airport would make this January the 7th driest on record. The lack of precipitation was due to a storm track that was either north of south of the region, with precipitation bearing systems generally bypassing southern MB. The few that did cross the region brought limited moisture. The lack of snowfall comes on the heels of a snowier than normal December that saw about twice the average snowfall. Snowpack was at a consistent 17 cm much of the month.. about half the snowdepth this time last year. Up to Jan 31st, I've recorded 62 cm of snow in Charleswood since October, a little below the average of 69 cm by the end of January.

Temperature wise, January 2008 actually finished about one degree above normal but that was mainly due to a mild first half that saw temperatures climb to a monthly high of +3C on the 6th. A pattern change by mid month ushered in typically cold weather for the last half of the month.. with some bitter wind chills of -47 recorded near the end of the month. Even so, the lowest temperature of the month was a moderate -32.9C on the 14th at the airport, -32.0C at my site on the 31st, with no record lows established during the month.

Overall, a split month temperature-wise with little snow.