After a brief respite today and tomorrow, frigid Arctic air is poised to return to southern MB by Wednesday which will persist into the end of the week. The good news is that long range models are finally indicating a pattern shift towards milder weather developing over southern MB this weekend continuing into next week. The transition to the milder temperatures will be marked by strong southerly winds developing ahead of the warmer air mass Friday night into Saturday, along with a threat of accumulating snow. This may produce a period of poor visibilities in snow and blowing snow before things improve by Saturday afternoon or evening. Temperatures are then expected to average closer to normal values much of next week, with "normal" highs now rising towards the -8C mark. Let's hope so.. I'm getting tired of this cold weather!
Hopefully we can get either a good snowfall or warmer temperatures to melt the snow. Anything to make it seem more like spring!
ReplyDeleteAlthough we may have to dodge a bullet on Wednesday/Thursday when 10cm of snow could fall in Western Manitoba, 4-8cm in Central Manitoba, and 2cm in Eastern Manitoba (all areas more towards the South of the province). Then Thursday morning winds will likely be at least 30km/h gusting to 50km/h, although 40 G 60 is possible especially in the RRV. This may create blizzard conditions again,it will just depend on whether the wind is strong enough, there should be quite enough snow.
Yeah, that's a nice little clipper system that's forecast to brush by us tonight into Wednesday.. we probably won't get much more than a few flurries out of it, but 5-10 cm looks possible over far SW MB, with a good swath of 10-15 cm over southern SK into ND.
ReplyDeleteAs for today, we have an area of snow through Dauphin and the Interlake this morning that is spreading southeast into Winnipeg and SE MB.. could drop 2 or 3 cm by mid afternoon.
The GFS was looking much better on Sunday Night/ Monday morning for heavier snowfall tomorrow. On Saturday into Sunday we may see 5 to 10cm of snow, along with strong winds may create a blizzard again.
ReplyDeleteI picked up 3.6 cm of snow today in Charleswood during that quick burst between 10 am and 2 pm. Believe it or not, that was the most snow we've had in one day since before Christmas! In fact, today's snowfall was just about the same as we had in all of January (3.8 cm)! Just goes to show how we've been missing out on the snow systems these past few weeks.
ReplyDeleteAs the next system coming in Saturday we may get to see above zero temperatures! Then the arctic air will return and linger just to our east, enough to influence us. By next weekend we may have the chance to see some real "snow eating" temperatures, Saturday showing good potential for a high or 2 to 6 degrees!
ReplyDeleteSaturday look like 5-10cm for Eastern Manitoba and 2-4cm for Central Manitoba. This system looks like it might have some powerful winds associated with it, so another blizzard is possible.
It does look quite mild on Saturday with that next system. Models disagree about just how mild it will get, but I think it is safe to go well beyond the -8 being predicted by Environment Canada (and the -7 our weather service is predicting for Lancaster on that day). If it doesn't crack zero, it will get pretty close. Unfortunately, that mild weather will come with winds gusting to at least 40 km/h and more likely 50, otherwise it might have been nice to walk around in shirt sleeves. Maybe on Sunday? It won't be quite as warm, but I'm looking at about -6, so if the wind falls off in the afternoon, it could be rather pleasant, especially after the cold spell.
ReplyDeleteEastern Manitoba might see 5 to 10cm of snow Saturday. Along with moderate winds this may create extensive blowing snow.
ReplyDeleteSaturday still looks to be warm, around 0 degrees is possible. The end of next week also looks to be quite mild, with temperatures around 6 degrees possible in North Dakota, but that might not quite reach us. The 700mb winds are hinting at a South-West to North-East storm track by next weekend, or early the week after. This is a hint that spring is coming to me anyway with all that arctic air being held up in Nunavut after this weekend!
Yes, it looks pretty mild for the latter half of the month. No evidence that we will have a big February thaw, but there will definitely be a few days where zero or slightly higher is possible. Right now, I don't see anything even at night that drops below -20 after next Monday. Of course, that could change, knowing how the long term models flip flop. If we can keep a general west to east flow aloft, the cold air will stay north.
ReplyDeleteWell as Saturday draws closer, I would expect the consistency in the models to remain. Since early this week they have been showing a moderate snow event for the Interlake and Eastern Manitoba. This could potentially be the heaviest one event snowfall all winter here. So far the most in one event was back in December, when that blizzard producing Clipper brought a measly 9cm.
ReplyDeleteModels right now...000Z 14 Feb 2008run...show an average of 7.2 cm of snow for YWG and 8.0 cm for HCO (Hallock, MN). Will be interesting to see how this plays out. Models continue to show high temperatures at or slightly above zero, but since these models tend to overdo things just a bit, I'm still thinking highs in the -2 or -3 range will be what we see. EC is still calling for -8 in Winnipeg and Emerson, while NWS says -7 for Lancaster and Hallock. EC tends to pick up on changes a little faster than the NWS, so we'll see who changes their forecast first.
ReplyDeleteI saw this cold spell a week ago, then a couple days later, EC predicted it, but the NWS took another 2 days to come around.
EC has significantly raised its forecast high for Saturday.. now saying 0C up from its -8 yesterday. 0C is on the high end of the ensemble range.. most members going for highs from -2 to -5C which seems more reasonable given the situation.. strong southerly winds out of a departing arctic ridge shifting to the northwest as the warm air occludes out. I can see -3C or so for Winnipeg, but zero seems a bit high for us. If we do get to zero, it will be very short lived.. perhaps an hour or so late Saturday as the NW winds kick in before the cold advection. 0C a better bet down in ND and MN though..
ReplyDeleteBut whether it 0 or -5, it'll feel a lot better than what we're seeing now! -34.7C at the YWG airport this morning.. coldest temperature so far this winter. Here's hoping that's the last of it!
I saw that EC had raised their prediction up to zero. I am still thinking about -3 for Winnipeg and -2 for Emerson and here. Once the next model run is done, I'll see if that needs any adjustment. NWS is only calling for -6 here. They are slow on the uptake again. I'm sure by tonight or tomorrow, they will raise their prediction somewhat.
ReplyDeleteIt will be interesting to see what will happen on Saturday. A system similar to that of Wednesday will track through Central Manitoba. The track looks a little questionable at this point, I would probably put the center a bit farther South.
ReplyDeleteIt could produce 10 to 20cm of snow on the MB / ON border up between Bissett and Berens River. As for the South I think that the South-East cold see 5cm, but if it goes farther South, then we could be in the 10 to 20cm range.
If the storm does track a bit to the south, then the chance of seeing a high of zero will be zero. Even so, I think it will hit -3 at this point, but today's data may help pin that down.
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