Thursday, April 19, 2018



Well, it took awhile, but it looks like spring has finally sprung in Winnipeg and southern MB as sunny skies and temperatures in the mid teens signalled the warmest weather here since last October (6 months ago!)   And the springlike weather is expected to continue this weekend with temperatures in the upper teens, possibly closing in on 20C in some localities!  The only fly in the ointment will be gusty southerly winds accompanying the warm temperatures over the weekend, especially Sunday with southerly winds gusting to 50-60 km/h. Otherwise, it'll be a great weekend to enjoy the outdoors like riding your bike, getting some swings in at the driving range, or starting on that spring cleaning! Temperatures are expected to cool off to around 7-10C Tuesday, but then should rebound into the upper teens to 20C by next Thursday again. So spring is here.. at least for the next little while! Enjoy! 

17 comments:

  1. With the low soil moisture and the snow having melted, it would be interesting if below average conditions continue early into the summer. One bonus would be another year of potentially next to no mosquitoes. Another question mark - could we get some anomalous heat if very dry conditions suppress the dewpoints a little more than usual?

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    1. Below average preciptation, I should clarify.

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    2. Yes.. it’s been quite dry and we remain so going into the growing season. But our wet season generally begins in mid May and goes through June when we have the greatest chance of heavy rainfall events from thunderstorm complexes. So there’s still plenty of time to get some needed moisture, although I’m sure farmers would like to see some moisture sooner than later. If precip remains below normal in May and June, that will be bad news for crops as we had a very dry year last year. And yes, there’s a greater chance of anamolous heat with drier surface conditions and lower dewpoints.

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  2. Cool day today with northerly winds and cloudy skies.. may end our 10 day streak of double digit highs if we don't clear out by mid to late afternoon. But a nicer weekend on tap as we get back into the southerlies.. with highs bouncing back to around 17C Saturday, and 22C Sunday. Some showers finally look to move in on Monday.. the last day of April. Amounts look like the 2-5 mm range for now.. but we'll see how models trend with the system. That would take our dry April out of the top 5 driest if we get more than 0.8 mm. One thing that's odd is that EC's forecast is calling for a high of 25C Monday with showers. Not likely for Winnipeg. More like upper teens under clouds and precipitation moving in. GDPS model overdoing highs on that day as they bring Winnipeg briefly into warm sector of low passing through southern MB. Other models keep warm sector to our south and east. That's the problem with making automated forecasts using one model (instead of an ensemble approach) which can result in large errors in tight gradient situations.

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    1. New guidance has come in cooler for Monday.. even GDPS has Winnipeg no higher than 20C. So that forecast high of 25C for Monday with showers moving in looks highly unlikely. Mid to upper teens at best, and much cooler Tuesday with single digit highs likely for the start of May.

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    2. So much for that forecast of 25C on Monday.. EC now calling for 13C Monday with showers. Most likely, we'll be mild to start the day with temps in the mid teens, then falling temps in the afternoon as winds shift to the north behind a cold front. But clearly, that 25C was a poorly derived automated forecast that was an obvious outlier in this situation.

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  3. Models backing off on precipitation for Monday, with limited moisture associated with cold front moving through srn MB Monday morning into early afternoon. However, a few models are indicating secondary area of precipitation moving into srn MB overnight Monday into Tuesday morning.. possibly mixed with ice pellets or wet snow! So lots of uncertainty with precip and temps next couple of days.

    For today, lots of sun but very windy with strong south winds gusting 60-70 kmh today in Winnipeg and the RRV. Could even see gusts approach 75-80 kmh at times this afternoon. Temperatures will be in the low to mid 20s with minimum humidity values around 25-30%. Critical fire weather values with a risk of local grass/bush fires. Needless to say, not a good day for burning..

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  4. Rob a off the topic question but how or would it be possible to get the weather from LacDuBonnet airport... Thanks

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    1. I don’t know how to access weather data from Lac Du Bonnet airport but the province operates an ag-weather site at Lac Du Bonnet. You can access the hourly data at: http://www.gov.mb.ca/agriculture/weather/lac-du-bonnet-cc.html

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  5. A little cooler today with a NE flow off iced covered Lake Winnipeg bringing that cooler air into the city. I don't think we'll hit our forecast high of 20C.. maybe 18-19C. Still nice with sunshine, but a little cool in that NE breeze. Nicer day Sunday with light winds and afternoon highs near 21C. Temperatures soar Monday as we get into SW flow of warmer air.. Winnipeg will likely hit 28C with sunshine. (EC just updated their forecast for Monday.. now showing 29C!) Rain chances looking less likely for Tuesday as system slows down, with a chance of showers Tue night into Wednesday. Unfortunately not major amounts. Cooler by mid to end of next week before warming up again by mid May.

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    1. 29C still looking good for Monday for Winnipeg.. outside chance we may even hit 30C with enough sunshine along with very dry air (20% humidity) and W-SW downslope wind. (Current forecast high of 26C from EC looks too cool) Cool front slips through Monday evening with winds shifting to the north and increasing to 30 gusting 50 km/h, and temperatures falling to 20C by 9 pm and 15C by midnight. So if you're at the Jets street party, don't plan on 29C temperatures lasting all evening! Still should be a great evening.. hopefully culminating with a Jets victory!

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    2. Not surprisingly, EC has raised its forecast of 26C up to 30C for today (Monday) All guidance was pointing to at least 28-29C for today, with a high end of 30C.. so that 26C was well on the cool side. Temps are zooming up quickly this morning, rising 5C per hour up to 24C as of 10 am already. Should be near 29C by lunch hour, with a good shot of hitting our first 30C this afternoon. Ideal conditions for max heating today with strong solar, very dry surface conditions (RH 15-20%), and W-SW downslope flow into Winnipeg/RRV. That usually gives us the best chance of overachieving on temperatures. Enjoy the taste of summer out there!

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    3. 31.6C was yesterday's high. It looks this temperature beat all predictions.

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    4. Yes.. 31.6C certainly overachieved, for the reasons I outlined above. Everything came together for us to get maximum heating yesterday.

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  6. EC's forecast high of 14C for Saturday looking way too cool.. all guidance coming in with highs near 20C that day. Otherwise, a bit of a cooling trend over the next couple of days as another cold front pushes southward across southern MB midday Wednesday bringing in gusty north winds gusting 50-60 km/h by early afternoon in Winnipeg. Highs only around 12-13C Thursday but then moderating nicely into the 20s over the weekend. Still no signs of any rain over southern MB through the next week. As of today, Winnipeg has gone 26 straight days without measurable precipitation (defined as 0.2 mm or more in a calendar day) We'll likely make it to 30 days by Saturday. Longest streak without any measurable precipitation in Winnipeg was 40 straight days in the spring of 1980.

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    1. By the way, that cold front tomorrow will bring a drop in temperatures as it goes through in the early afternoon. Temps in Winnipeg will climb to around 18-19C by noon, then the cold front goes through over the lunch hour and temps will drop about 5 degrees before leveling off in the afternoon. So a pleasant morning will give way to a windy and cooler afternoon.

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  7. A rare morning this spring in Winnipeg/RRV with low clouds and high humidity values (90+%) We have an extensive deck of low cloud that has spread up from North Dakota into the RRV this morning with dewpoints in the +7-9C range... highest values here in a while. That will help a bit with the fire weather conditions this morning. Not much rain though, with a few scattered showers over far SW MB this morning that has dropped a few mm (1-3 mm) around Reston and Pierson which will slide to the SE this morning missing us here in the RRV. Cold front expected to push through Winnipeg around noon-1 pm with a chance of some light showers along the front as it passes through. Not much rain but possibly enough to end our official dry streak here in Winnipeg if we get 0.2 mm or more. Behind the front, winds will be picking up from the north to 40 gusting 60 km/h this afternoon (EC is calling for gusts to 70 km/h but I don't see us gusting that high here in Winnipeg) Those northerly winds will bring in drier air this afternoon with clearing skies and humidity values falling to around 25-30% later this afternoon as dewpoints drop to around -5C. Not quite as critical fire weather conditions as the past few days.. but dry enough with gusty winds increasing fire risk.

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