Sunday, October 15, 2017

Fabulous week of October weather ahead!

After the first snowfall season in Winnipeg this past Saturday (2 cm on Oct 14th), the weather will be turning decidedly warmer this week as an upper ridge builds over central North America. This will allow temperatures to rise to well above normal levels this week, especially Tuesday and again Thursday and Friday  (Normal highs this week drop to 10C by mid week)   Monday looks wonderful with sunshine mixing with some morning high clouds and afternoon highs around 16C. Winds will be gusty out of the south in the morning (30-50 km/h) shifting to southwest in the afternoon.  Tuesday is looking even warmer with afternoon highs near 20C along with mainly sunny skies and brisk south winds.  Wednesday will see a bit of a cooldown as a NW flow briefly knocks down the upper ridge bringing in slightly cooler air and highs of 15C. Temperatures however will rebound again for Thursday and Friday as the upper ridge rebuilds, with highs in the low 20s (!) along with gusty south winds.  All in all, a fabulous week ahead after a brief taste of winter this past weekend. Enjoy!          

74 comments:

  1. Wednesday looking very windy across southern MB.. especially across the MB lakes. West winds 50 gusting 70 km/h likely, gusts of 80-90 km/h possible over/lee lakes. Good setup for strong winds to surface.. tight pressure gradient, cold advection, 50 knot winds in low levels, and sunny skies with dry air at the surface to maximize instability.

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    1. They’ve issues a special weather statement for Winnipeg. How strong could the winds be here rob?

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    2. For Winnipeg, gusts of 70-80 kmh possible Wednesday. Could see gusts of 90 kmh lee of Riding Mtns and over/lee MB lakes. Going to be a windy one!!

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  2. Nicely overachieved on the temps today with a high of 18.8C in Winnipeg.. almost 3C over predicted high. Plenty of sun with a nice SW downslope flow in the afternoon helped us overshoot our high today. 20C looking good for tomorrow which would be our first 20C reading of the month if we hit it. If we don't, good chance we'll hit it Friday, maybe even Thursday.

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    1. This is sounding eerily similar to last years warmest November on record. With that high of 18.8C on November 9th. Gosh I don’t want another November like last year. I wish winter would come early.

      I was hoping we were done with 20C weather, although I’m sure many would disagree with me.....

      When is winter going to set in? I’m ready.

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  3. Rob is this going to finish in the top 15 warmest October’s?

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    1. Possibly. We cool off last week of October which may put us out of a top 15 finish.

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    2. Yeah I saw that upcoming cooldown. It will likely be in the 30 warmest though. What does it take to get a cold fall around here anymore?

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  4. Wind warning in effect for much of southern MB, including Winnipeg and RRV for strong winds Wednesday. Westerly wind gusts to 90 km/h possible for Winnipeg/RRV with 100-110 km/h gusts possible to the lee of Riding and Duck Mtns and over/lee MB lakes. Those kind of winds at this time of year could lead to power outages in heavily treed areas. That could be an issue over Parklands and interlake areas overnight into Wednesday.

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    1. Is it really possible to get winds that strong within the city?

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    2. Absolutely. Max winds have gusted over 95 km/h every month of the year in Winnipeg, with a peak gust of 129 km/h in Feb 1965. Peak gust in October has been 119 km/h on Oct 17 1991.

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    3. Yikes. It’s gonna be a rough one

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  5. By the way, a high of 21C in Winnipeg today, our first 20C reading of the month. Normally we average about two 20C highs in October, but 1 out of 6 Octobers don't see any. We should see another 20C high Friday, which will likely be our last one of the year. But I'm OK if it isn't :)

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    1. Interesting how we didn’t start hitting 20C until late month.

      I’m pretty sure Friday will be the last one. 20C isn’t likely to happen after that.

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  6. I'm concerned about the area from Riding Mountains through Swan River to The Pas overnight into Wednesday morning. Strongest gusts expected through there (100 km/h+) with lots of trees in the area. Could see lots of power outages through there tomorrow.

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    1. Dauphin should see some very strong gusts by 4 am or so.. likely 100-120 km/h.

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    2. Yikes. So when is it starting here?

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  7. Peak gusts so far today as of 9 am:

    Dauphin..... 102 kmh
    McCreary ... 98 kmh
    Roblin...... 94 kmh
    Swan River.. 91 kmh
    Portage..... 87 kmh
    The Pas..... 85 kmh
    Brandon .... 80 kmh
    Winnipeg ... 69 kmh

    Strongest winds have been in the western Parkland region where power outages have been reported due to downed tree branches on power lines. Winds not as strong over Winnipeg and RRV as core of strongest winds moves over interlake regions, although we'll still be gusty today with gusts of 70-80 km/h at times.

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  8. Rob we sit here at work payin for our hobby farm and horses wondering what direction the wind is blowing out in Birdshill and whether our city slicker built sheds will still be up and the horses still there when we get home tonight.

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    1. Don.. winds will be pretty much due west to WSW all day. Hope your sheds hold up!

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  9. If its W or SW we might think about starting over i. If its N or NW we might get thru this

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  10. So much for our fabulous week. Actually i am aware that that kind of weather in late fall or early spring seems to always come with wind.

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  11. It did in 63 as well . So we couldnt Jump (parachute) very often

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  12. In fact we didnt get up once

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  13. Therewere other reasons but that was a caveat, winds less than 15 pilot and a c119 flying Boxcar at Rivers AFBase and enough time to get ready and transport us over from Shilo. Just checked and note the great wind records Rivers had for that reason .They were the drop Zone.an looks like almost no qualifying days.

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  14. Rob. It’s 14.2C with a dewpoint of -8.9C for a relative humidity of 19%. Is this the lowest ever recorded?

    Also, I’ve been hearing talk of some cold air heading here in the first week of November. Does it look like winter will be starting in early November?

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    1. Relative humidity got down to 15% at 4-5 pm (14C with -12C dewpoint), which evidently is the lowest humidity on record for October (since records began in 1953) I don't think it's the lowest humidity ever though..

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    2. That’s really low. Just out of curiosity, what would a relative humidity of 0% be?

      What are your thoughts on early November? I’ve been hearing talk of cold moving in

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    3. Yeah definitely not the lowest ever. Lowest was 10% in April 1977 and 1980. April and May have the lowest RH's on average. November to March sees the highest RH's on average. In fact, the lowest RH recorded since 1953 in December is 38%.

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    4. Thanks JJ. What exactly is the purpose of relative humidity? How does it change what we feel outside? I thought summer would have lower RH than winter because winter always feels dry?

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    5. Matthew.. relative humidity is the measure of water vapor in the air relative to the temperature of the air mass. The warmer the airmass, the more water vapor it can hold… thus a relative humidity of 40% in the summer feels much different than 40% in the winter when the airmass is much colder and holds a lot less moisture. (For example, 40% of 100 grams is 40 g, while 40% of 10 g is only 4 g. Even though both are 40%, the first has 10X more water vapour than the second) Because of this, relative humidity is a poor indicator of how humid an airmass "feels". A much better indicator of how humid the airmass feels is the "dewpoint temperature". When the dewpoint is under 10C, it feels comfortable and dry. When the dewpoint is over 20C ( like it can be in the summer) it feels very humid and muggy. These are absolute values.. and are not dependent on airmass temperatures. That's why dewpoint is a much better indicator than RH of how "humid" an airmass really feels.

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    6. Thanks rob. I agree with you that dewpoint is a much better measurement of this. Yesterday felt very dry:

      What about those damp days in the winter when the temperature rises above freezing. Like last January when we set an all time high minimum dewpoint. I remember the air was very moist. Why do dewpoints go high when we get warm in the winter?

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    7. It's al relative. In the winter, a dewpoint of 0 would feel damp compared to a dewpoint of -20. But a dewpoint of 0 is nothing like a dewpoint of 20 (which feels "tropical")

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    8. Thanks rob. If I recall in July 2016 we had a dewpoint of 25.9 which was the second highest ever recorded here.

      I noticed that dewpoints are trending higher in our winters. Why is this?

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  15. Peak gust of 83 km/h at Winnipeg airport today. As windy as it was, Winnipeg never officially reached wind warning criteria which is sustained winds of 70 km/h or more, or gusts of 90 kmh or more. Makes me think wind warning criteria is a bit too high.. I don't think too many people would have questioned a wind warning being out today.

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    1. I’d agree with you rob. It was pretty nasty out there today. I’d say lower the wind warning criteria by 10km/h

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  16. Rob. Is it true that EC is no longer going to be considering your snowfall obs official? If this is true it’s very disappointing

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    1. I have not heard anything about that from EC. As far as I know, my snowfall observations will continue to go into the EC climate archives as official snowfall data. My station data goes back to 2004, about the time YWG airport lost its snowfall observation program. I've been doing it ever since so that there is *some* record of snowfall for Winnipeg.. even if it's not at the airport site.

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    2. JJ said on his blog that EC won’t be considering your site as official and because of that any new records from your snowfall obs may not be able to be counted as official from this point forward. I’m not sure where he found that info from then if you haven’t heard anything?

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    3. I've chatted with JJ about it, and evidently EC will not recognize my snowfall data to supplement Winnipeg airport snowfall data for official records. (since collection times and location differ) No matter.. I will still take snowfall obs which will go into EC archives as official Winnipeg snowfall data, just not official airport snowfall data. Trouble is.. there is no airport snowfall data anymore, so my obs will still be the official snowfall for Winnipeg for the time being.

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    4. This could all be easily solved if EC could just get snowfall observations back at the airport, as it's done at virtually evey other major airport in Canada.

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    5. I agree with you Rob. This situation with EC and the snowfall obs is beyond ridiculous. I’m going to be writing to them. They never should have stopped taking obs in the first place. Rob do I recall you saying in the past you are a former meteorologist?

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    6. That's correct.. recently retired from EC after 32 years.

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    7. Wow! I never knew you were a meteorologist for EC! That’s cool. I’m going to write them but you could probably convince them about the snowfall stuff better than I can. What did you do there?

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  17. Record high for Winnipeg tomorrow (Oct 20th) is 23.9C in 1875 and also 1958. Record high certainly within reach as we get balmy southeast winds and sunshine pushing temps up to the 24-25C mark by mid afternoon! Should be a beauty!

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    1. I think we will beat it! That will be an incredible day for sure. I hope winter sets in soon though.

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    2. Record broken as of 3 pm! Current temperature: 24.3C.

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  18. Rob. It looks like we could be in for a SIGNIFICANT pattern change late next week. I’ve been hearing talk of snow and cold moving in, and the models and forecasts seem to support this. Could we be headed for an early start to winter? What a change that would be after one of the mildest October’s in years. October will likely finish around 3C above normal.

    What’s your thoughts on the late week pattern change?

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  19. Accurate weather and underground weather calling for snow

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    1. Yep! Weather underground calling for a blizzard!!! I hope so! But the weather network is calling for a large rainstorm switching to a couple cm of snow at the end

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    2. Looks like that blizzard potential is fading. Only a couple slushy centimetres forecasted now

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  20. CPC outlooks calling for colder than normal temperatures into early November.

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  21. Rob how accurate is that Environment Canada “ 40% chance of showers “ for Thursday? Weather underground predicting full out blizzard conditions. Could our winter snowpack be headed our way this early? Snow by Halloween would be like a dream for me. It gets very cold after that with below freezing highs next week

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  22. A mix of sun and cloud now, that’s ridiculous! Everyone else is predicting a storm

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  23. I think Rob is awol lol

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    1. Rob are you here? Lol yeah I wonder where he is

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  24. Greetings.. I'm currently away for a few days and won't be able to provide updates. Will be back early next week. Cheers!

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  25. A low of -5.4C in the hourly readings this morning, coldest of the season. Quite chilly

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  26. Oh my, it really does look like winter will be making an early entrance this year

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  27. Thursday still rain?

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    1. NAM model pasting is with a Blizzard. I don’t think it will get that bad, but I’m confident we will see some snow. Take a look at the below freezing highs next week, looks like the Old Man is on his way

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  28. Any new updates/projections?

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    1. Looks like 10-20mm of rain tonight switching over to snow by morning.

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  29. 2-3cm of snow in the city today. Enough to cover the ground and create a gorgeous wintry scene.

    Looks like the gateway to the arctic is opening next week, with well below normal temperatures expected. I think it is safe to say we are in for an early winter. EC NAEFS outlooks pasting us with 100% probability of below normal temperatures through November 10th. It’s still early and things can change, but both EC and the US CPC have a very high confidence that we will be seeing much colder conditions setting in soon. Highs descend below freezing by November 2nd and just get even colder from there.


    It is about time for a nice cold November and early winter.

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  30. Next weeeend snow storm? WN seems to think so.

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    1. NAEFS still pasting us with 90% probability of well below normal temperatures. Finally I think an early winter is almost here!

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  31. This is an example of why automated forecasting is screwed up. This is Dauphin’s forecast for Sunday night

    Night: Cloudy. 60 percent chance of rain showers early in the evening. Snow beginning early in the evening. Wind north 30 km/h. Low minus 2.

    Is it rain or is it snow? Just. Wow.

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    1. Unfortunately, that's the problem with computer generated forecasts. They just spit out whatever the code tells them too.. and often, it's not the best way of saying it. Take today for example.. an ideal forecast for Winnipeg would have been "Windy and cold with occasional flurries" Instead we got "Cloudy. 60% chance of flurries. Wind NW 50G70. High zero." More robotic and not as descriptive. Who cares about sky condition when its blustery and cold? But the forecast algorithm says it needs a sky condition which comes first.. so that's what it does. It doesn't really give the FLAVOUR of the forecast like the first one did. That's where I see we've really lost out with computer generated forecasts.. the descriptive aspect of the forecast that made it more useful to the general public. Now, a more sophisticated and intelligent computer algorithm could spit a good descriptive forecast.. but that's not what EC has unfortunately. Their forecast generator software is 30 years old.. and is limited in its capabilities. They really could use a modernized forecast generator.. which evidently is in the plans, but is still years away from implementation unfortunately. In the meantime, we're stuck with crude and less than ideal computer generated forecasts.

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    2. I agree with you rob. We need a better quality product. It’s unfortunate that it is this way.

      This high of -9C EC is predicting for Friday. That sounds incredibly overboard. Is this reasonable and what model is it pulling that from?

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    3. One of the problems I see with EC forecasts is that they are often too detailed (thanks to software coding), and more often than not, that detail doesn't work out. Take today for example… The forecast issued at 11 AM said cloudy with a 30% chance of flurries. Risk of freezing drizzle "near noon." Well, it's noon and the sun is coming out. That's an example of needless detail that doesn't verify, and just makes the forecast look bad. And tonight, the forecast says wind becoming southeast 20 km/h "late" this evening. Well, it'll likely be 20 kmh by early evening, so why put that needless detail into timing that will likely not work out? Just saying "this evening" would give a much better chance of verifying. Again, poor coding. I swear, EC's forecasts would improve by 50% if they took out any reference to "early", " late", or "near noon" in every one of their forecasts.

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    4. Yes I agree with you on that rob.

      It’s still -3.3C at 2PM. COLD! And snow flurries

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