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WPC 24hr rainfall forecast (in inches)
valid Wed to Thur evening |
Another storm system is forecast to track across the Dakotas tonight and across SE Manitoba Thursday bringing another round of wet and possibly stormy weather to southern MB. Scattered showers and thunderstorms in advance of the system will push across southern Manitoba this evening and tonight before a steadier area of rain pushes across western MB through the Interlake overnight through Thursday. Locally heavy rainfall is possible within this band, with amounts of 25 to 50 mm possible in some areas by Thursday evening. Heaviest rainfall is expected in southeast SK where up to 70 mm of rain is forecast by Thursday evening. Here in Winnipeg and the RRV, lesser amounts of rain are expected.. on the order of 10-20 mm, however locally heavy downpours are possible with any thunderstorms that track though tonight especially near the US border. Rain will taper off Thursday evening across the Winnipeg area with clearing skies by Friday. Note also that strong northerly winds gusting to 70 km/h or more are expected behind this system by Thursday evening which may cause shoreline problems on southern ends of Lake Manitoba and Winnipeg Thursday night due to high water levels. Sunny and seasonable weather is expected Friday into the weekend with a warming trend for Sunday and Monday as temperatures rise towards the mid 20s again. Unfortunately, the warmup looks short lived as another system tracks through Tuesday with more showers, and a change to much cooler weather for mid to late week next week. In fact, it's possible southern MB may be seeing its first frosts of the season by the end of next week.
Not a drop of rain here overnight as main convection stayed south of the US border, while system rain developed to our west. Still expect rain to move into Winnipeg by midday and continue this afternoon as we get on backside of system with 10-15 mm possible by tonight.
ReplyDelete8 mm at my place today with a couple bands of showers and thunderstorms moving through.. but not as extensive as earlier expected. heavier rains to our north and west with about 20 to 30 mm over the southern Interlake and 40 to 55 mm over the Riding Mtn area.
ReplyDeleteNOT looking forward to the weather later next week. After a decent weekend with nice low to mid 20 temperatures, a major cold front pushes through later Tuesday ushering in an unseasonably cool blast for Wed-Saturday next week. Highs only around 10C with single digit lows and occasional rain. In fact, EURO model is even showing rain mixed with ice pellets for next Thursday along with single digit temps! (although admittedly Euro has somewhat of a cold bias) Way too early for that kind of cold, but not unprecedented. Record low maximums for Winnipeg are now in the 10-12C range, and after Sept 9th, they're consistently in the single digits. Blecch. Likely will be seeing some early frosts by next weekend if skies can clear out at night.
The 12.7 mm reported at the Forks seems low. Central parts of the city experienced two rounds of torrential rain with the elevated convection that finally moved through this afternoon.. at least 20 mm totals I would estimate. Only light showers and drizzle off to our NW right now..
ReplyDeleteGenerally 10-15 mm of rain recorded by city gauges in the downtown area.. with 14.7 mm from the U of W station. So the 12.7 mm from the Forks seems reasonable based on surrounding sites, even though the rain did come down hard for awhile. SE part of the city escaped most of the rain with 1 mm or less there.
DeleteRob, where do you download the Euro forecasts? Are they free?
ReplyDeleteHello Andy. I usually do all my weather model viewing ( including the EURO ) from this website.
Deletehttp://weather.cod.edu/forecast/
Andy.. There are several sites i get ECMWF data from.
DeleteMeteogram data for Winnipeg..
http://www.yr.no/place/Canada/Manitoba/Winnipeg/hour_by_hour.html
http://www.storm247.com/weather/winnipeg/overview#day=0
ECMWF plots from UQAM "Meteocentre"
http://meteocentre.com/models/models.php?mod=ecmwf&map=na&run=&lang=en
You can also access Euro model adat from Weather Underground site att..
http://www.wunderground.com/wundermap/?lat=49.90000153&lon=-97.23000336&zoom=10
Click on "model data" on right hand menu, and select "ECMWF" This will overlay ECMWF fields over a Google map.. including precip fields.
Hope that helps.
As the upper trough develops in central N America and surface cold front passes through Monday afternoon, Colorado low begins to eject out onto the plains. It is progged to track NNE with precipitation shield potentially affecting Winnipeg and SE Manitoba. Lots of uncertainty regarding track and how strong blocking will be downstream.. and even precipitation phase with the possibility of snow mixing in.
ReplyDeleteMain area of high pressure and frost risk will hang back over Alberta and Saskatchewan next week. Surface high passes to our SW Friday and we quickly develop a westerly return flow.. typically this does not allow local temperatures to bottom out. Also, warm lake waters and saturated top soils will hopefully keep abundant low cloud lingering. Problem is one last shot of cold air and high pressure that is projected to drop due south behind a trailing piece of energy later in the weekend. Again, main question how much clearing the high will be able to scour out as it drops south over us.
Looks like a good warm up afterwards, so if we escape frost threat there will still be some decent growing conditions and heat units to be had before the season is over